Sunrise 6:18 AM   Sunset 8:50 PM Moonrise 3:02 AM   Moonset 1:03 PM

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LMZ342 Norwood Mi To 5nm West Of Mackinac Bridge Including Little Traverse Bay- 257 Pm Edt Thu May 2 2024
Tonight - Southeast wind 15 to 20 knots. Scattered showers and isolated Thunderstorms early in the evening, then numerous showers and scattered Thunderstorms after midnight. Patchy fog after midnight. Waves 2 to 3 feet. Friday - Southwest wind 5 to 10 knots. Patchy fog. Scattered showers and isolated Thunderstorms. Waves 2 feet or less. Friday night - Southeast wind 5 to 10 knots. Mostly clear. Waves 2 feet or less. Saturday - East wind 10 to 15 knots. Partly Sunny. Waves 2 feet or less.
winds and waves higher in the vicinity of Thunderstorms.
see the open lakes forecast for days 3 through 5.

LMZ300
No data

FXUS63 KAPX 021853 AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gaylord MI 253 PM EDT Thu May 2 2024

KEY MESSAGES

- Showers and scattered storms tonight into Friday

- A few showers remain possible Sunday morning as a weak cold front progresses across the CWA

- Weather turns towards a wetter pattern starting Tuesday as low pressure settles into the Central CONUS.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/
Pattern Synopsis:

Ridging overhead will continue to slide over the southern Great Lakes/New England today and tonight. Upstream, a strong shortwave trough will lift from the Midwest over the far northern Great Lakes/Ontario later tonight and Friday. An associated surface cyclone will follow suit, dragging an attendant cold front across the state Friday morning into Friday evening.

Forecast Details:

Showers, scattered storms tonight into Friday -- Mainly light rain chances will move into western portions of the area this afternoon as high clouds continue to spread overhead. Primary rain chances move in later this evening and overnight with the potential for isolated/scattered thunderstorms. While a few stronger storms may form and will be capable of gusty winds and small hail, severe storms are not anticipated at this time. Showers will continue into Friday morning for most areas as the front swings through, ending rain chances from west to east later Friday morning into early Friday afternoon. After chances pass, mostly sunny skies are anticipated as a dry air mass filters into the region. Overnight lows in the mid 40s to low 50s are in store with highs on Friday reaching into the mid to upper 60s.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
Pattern Synopsis and Forecast:

Midlevel longwave troughing with embedded height disturbances spanned across North America will keep a non impactful weather pattern for the entirety of the long term period with some precipitation at times. Closed low pressure currently over the Saskatchewan/Montana boarder and a second low over the Pacific northwest will return chances of precipitation later this weekend and early next week.

The first low over the boarder will progress northeast to the southern shore of Hudson Bay by Saturday Morning. A cold front attached to the aformentioned low will drag across the Great Lakes region Saturday night. Additional showers and storms continue beginning on Tuesday through the remainder of the forecast period as the secondary low settles into the central CONUS.

Primary Forecast Concerns/Key Messages:

-A few showers remain possible Sunday morning as a weak cold front progresses across the CWA: The long term period starts off dry with a shortwave ridge pushing another day of surface high pressure on Saturday. A weak cold front will deliver scattered showers with a slight chance of thunderstorms late Saturday night into Sunday morning. PWAT's remain near the 90th percentile of climatology for Gaylord, but very weak forcing will keep QPF low. Most areas will remain at a trace but locations with stronger convection could see a general tenth or so of measurable liquid.

-Weather turns towards a wetter pattern starting Tuesday as low pressure settles into the Central CONUS: Attention for the long term period is drawn towards the middle of next week as midlevel low pressure settles into the central CONUS for the remainder of the forecast period. Current guidance is depicting surface low pressure to push a front through the Great Lakes region on Tuesday with additional waves of precip at times Wednesday and Thursday. Still a bit of uncertainty on impacts due to the chance of the front becomes cut off and looses strength/moisture, but potential of heavier showers and thunderstorms for the middle of next week continue to grow for the Great Lakes region.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/
VFR conditions are expected to continue across northern Michigan through this evening into tonight as clouds begin to spread overhead. Showers and a few thunderstorms look to work from west to east later this afternoon and evening, with widespread rain chances anticipated tonight. CIGs look to degrade from west to east tonight with aforementioned rain moving in, dropping to MVFR/IFR for a several hour window late tonight into Friday morning. Drops to MVFR and even IFR VSBYs will be possible at times with BR/FG Friday morning as well. Conditions look to improve back to VFR by the end of the issuance period.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...None.
MARINE...None.

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