Sunday, January16, 2022
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Marine Weather and Tides
Richford, VT

Version 3.4
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3/30/2021 -- ANZ330 has been split into ANZ331 and ANZ332. Click EDIT in Marine Forecast and select your new zone.
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 7:25AMSunset 4:37PM Sunday January 16, 2022 8:51 PM EST (01:51 UTC) Moonrise 4:10PMMoonset 7:51AM Illumination 100% Phase: Full Moon; Moon at 14 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Richford, VT
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location: 45.42, -73     debug


Area Discussion for - Burlington, VT
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FXUS61 KBTV 162331 AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 631 PM EST Sun Jan 16 2022

SYNOPSIS. Late tonight, a significant storm system will spread moderate to heavy snow into the North Country. Snow is expected to impact travel conditions, especially during the morning commute. Isolated to scattered power outages are possible, especially across south-central Vermont, where strong wind gusts will combine with heavy, wet snow. Behind this system, more waves of very cold air will impact the region, as well as some chances of light snow.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/. As of 558 PM EST Sunday . Sfc analysis places 1028mb high pres off the coast of Maine with mid/upper lvl clouds quickly advecting from south to north acrs our fa. Still some leftover very dry air at the sfc with dwpts in the -5F to -15F range this evening, with light winds have allowed temps to drop quicker than anticipated, so have made a minor adjustment to both temps/dwpts. Expect early evening lows before values warm as winds and precip increase aft midnight.

Meanwhile, 996mb sfc low pres is just east of RDU, NC as of 23 UTC, while the mid/upper lvl low circulation is near AVL, NC, with impressive warm conveyor of deep layer moisture moving along the eastern seaboard. In addition, have noted well defined dry slot advecting into the mid/upper lvl cyclonic circulation, resulting in the initial surge of waa precip quickly ending acrs parts of the SE CONUS. Expecting the first surge of waa snow to develop aft midnight from south to north acrs our fa, with developing 850mb jet of 70 to 80 knots, resulting in trrn influenced precip fields. As initial surge of steady/heavier precip shifts northward with snowfall rates of 1 to 2 inch per hour for several hours, our attention wl turn to the potential for gusty downslope winds acrs Rutland/Eastern Addison Counties. For now we will continue with high end advisory, but may need to upgrade to warning, if signal support slightly better mixing of winds with dry slot. Localized gusts up to 55 mph look likely attm. Otherwise, area coverage of precip wl be scattered by midday, as bl temps warm into the upper 20s to mid 30s most areas, except mid 20s SLV where ne llvl cold winds prevail. No changes to headlines or overall thinking for Monday's system.

Previous discussion below: Tonight will be the calm before the storm. The low pressure system that will bring widespread snow to the North Country late tonight is currently spinning across the Tennessee River Valley, and is quickly heading our way. As previously mentioned, this system is very dynamic and will pack a punch. Snow is still expected to begin after midnight tonight, spreading from south to north. At the same time, strong east-southeast winds will develop both aloft and at the surface. As a result, both moderate to heavy snow and strong to damaging wind gusts will impact the North Country tomorrow morning.

First, lets talk about the snow. A Winter Weather Advisory remains in effect across the Champlain Valley and northern Vermont, while a Winter Storm Warning remains in effect across northern New York and south-central Vermont from 1 AM Monday through 1 AM Tuesday.

Slight adjustments were made to the total snowfall forecast to emphasize the terrain influence with this event, especially across Vermont. The aforementioned strong ESE winds will lead to upslope enhancement along the eastern slopes of the Greens and Adirondacks, while western downslope regions will experience a precipitation deficit. The most notable change was to reduce snowfall totals within these downslope regions, namely the Champlain Valley and the Northeast Kingdom in Vermont. In addition, lesser precipitation amounts are expected during the afternoon on Monday when the dry slot moves overhead. In fact, the bulk of the snowfall will occur during the morning hours which will significantly impact the morning commute.

The heaviest snow will occur tomorrow morning between 4 AM and 11 AM when snowfall rates of 1 to 2 inches per hour are expected. This will mainly be along the eastern slopes of the Adirondacks and the southern/central Green Mountains. Total snow accumulations across these regions will be in the 8-12 inch range, while 12-18 inches are possible at locations above 2000 feet. For locations across southern and central Vermont, snow will be wet and heavy with snow ratios ranging from 7:1 to 10:1. This will likely result in isolated to scattered power outages as the heavy, wet snow quickly accumulates on trees and powerlines. Meanwhile, snow ratios across northern New York are expected to remain greater than 10:1.

Speaking of northern New York- snowfall rates up to 3 inches per hour are possible across the Saint Lawrence Valley in New York where a deformation band of heavy snow will develop between 4 AM and 8 AM. Total snow accumulations across this region will be in the 9-13 inch range. However, it is important to note that the timing and location of this band of heavy snow may vary. At this time, there remains the possibility that this band may drift northwest of the international border; in which case, lesser snow amounts will be observed across the Saint Lawrence Valley.

In addition, there still looks to be a brief period of sleet and rain across southern and eastern Vermont during the afternoon on Monday as temperatures warm above freezing. However, precipitation rates will have decreased significantly during this time as the dry slot moves overhead and precipitation becomes more scattered in nature. There may even be some drizzle or freezing drizzle across eastern Vermont during this time. This will result in slick travel conditions, given that accumulating snow will have already fallen.

By Monday night, temperatures will again fall below freezing with the passage of a cold front. Low temperatures will drop to near zero. Snow will taper off and become terrain driven as it does so, mainly occurring across the Adirondacks and northern Green Mountains overnight Monday into Tuesday. An additional dusting to 2 inches is possible for the mountains during this time.

Now let's talk winds. A Wind Advisory remains in effect for the immediate western slopes of the southern and central Green Mountains and the Northeast Kingdom in Vermont where southeast gusts up to 55 mph are expected. Western Rutland County has been added to the Wind Advisory, including the city of Rutland. The strongest gusts are expected to take place between 4 AM to 9 AM Monday morning, but will be sporadic. Since this may be concurrent with the heaviest snowfall, power outages are possible, especially across southern Vermont where there's a greater chance of heavy, wet snow. By Monday night, brisk west-northwest flow will develop leading to gusts up to 30-40 mph. As temperatures fall, wind chills will again be a concern for Monday night into Tuesday.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/. As of 434 PM EST Sunday . Northwesterly winds will gradually diminish on Tuesday as surface ridge axis builds ewd from the Great lakes region across northern NY late in the day. Will be a chilly day regardless, with high temperatures only in the low-mid teens across most of VT, and in the single digits above zero for most of nrn NY and along the intl. border in VT. With NW winds 10-20 mph in the morning, wind chills will range from 5 to 15 below. A few lingering snow showers are possible across the central/nrn Green Mtns, which may result in a dusting to 0.5" snowfall. Otherwise, looking at gradual clearing through the day.

Temperatures will fall quickly after sunset Tuesday with diminishing winds and clear skies through midnight. Should see lows zero to - 10F, but with temperatures leveling off after midnight as mid-upper level clouds increase from west to east. Approaching warm front will bring a chance of light snow showers to St. Lawrence county toward daybreak Wednesday (PoPs 20-30%), with cloudy skies and snow showers likely across most of the region during the daylight hours Wednesday (PoPs 50-70%). Any snow accumulation will be light, generally a dusting to 1" with up to 2" across the higher terrain on Wednesday, with best frontal convergence quickly shifting to our north. Winds will shift into the S-SW Wednesday, with moderate p-gradient leading to wind speeds of 15-25 mph in the Champlain Valley, and generally 10-20 mph elsewhere. Temperatures will briefly moderate on Wednesday, with highs in the low-mid 30s in most locations.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/. As of 434 PM EST Sunday . No significant precipitation events are expected during the long- term period. However, a reinforcing shot of arctic air is expected with temperatures generally below the 30-year climo mean for mid- January.

Weak low pressure passes to our north across southern Quebec on Wednesday night, with a trailing cold front ushering in another surge of low-level arctic air for Thursday and Friday. Temperatures will drop rapidly with strong CAA early Thursday morning, with temperatures falling to near zero in the St. Lawrence Valley by 12Z Thursday. Thursday will be a very cold/blustery day with level or falling temperatures across much of the region in the single digits to low teens. In addition, NW winds 10-15 mph will contribute to wind chills generally zero to 10 below during the day Thursday.

Arctic high pressure builds sewd into our region from Ontario Thursday night into Friday. Lows generally -5F to -15F Thursday night, with highs only near +10F on Friday. A slow moderating trend in temperatures is expected next weekend as arctic high pressure gradually shifts to our east. Next trough approaching from the Great Lakes will bring our next chance of precipitation in the form of light snow for Sunday.

AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/. Through 24z Monday . Rapidly increasing clouds but still generally VFR through 05-07Z, than a rapid deterioration in aviation wx conditions from South-North during the pre-dawn hours with developing period of moderate to heavy snowfall reducing conditions to IFR/LIFR with vsby reduced to less than 1/2 at times, widespread low- level wind shear, and HIR TRRN OBSCD. Downslope winds should reach the surface at KRUT, with gusts 40-44kt possible around 12Z Monday. Generally 2-4SM in intermittent light snow and BR later in the morning into the early afternoon Monday. Included some mention of sleet at RUT/MPV as we head through the late morning and early afternoon period. That said, the most significant period of snow and precipitation will be 09-15Z most TAF locations.

Gradual improvement in conditions with some MVFR and possibly VFR condiitons developing ard/aft 18z with snow intensity and coverage decreasing and a wind shift to the WSW.

Outlook .

Monday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR and IFR possible. Chance SHSN, Likely SN. Tuesday: VFR. Slight chance SHSN. Tuesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Wednesday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHSN. Wednesday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SHSN. Thursday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. NO SIG WX. Thursday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Friday: VFR. NO SIG WX.

BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. VT . Winter Storm Warning from 1 AM Monday to 1 AM EST Tuesday for VTZ008-010-012-017>019. Wind Advisory from 4 AM to 1 PM EST Monday for VTZ004-011- 017>019. Winter Weather Advisory from 1 AM Monday to 1 AM EST Tuesday for VTZ001>007-009-011-016. NY . Winter Storm Warning from 1 AM Monday to 1 AM EST Tuesday for NYZ026>031-034-035-087.

SYNOPSIS . Hammond/Haynes NEAR TERM . Hammond/Taber SHORT TERM . Banacos LONG TERM . Banacos AVIATION . Banacos/SLW


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Franklin County State Airport, VT34 mi56 minESE 410.00 miFair4°F-2°F76%1020 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KFSO

Wind History from FSO (wind in knots)
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Last 24 hr000000E3E500SE3SE4E4S5S50S3000000E7
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Tide / Current Tables for Sorel, Quebec
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Sorel
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Sun -- 06:33 AM EST     1.48 meters High Tide
Sun -- 06:55 AM EST     Moonset
Sun -- 07:29 AM EST     Sunrise
Sun -- 10:24 AM EST     1.47 meters Low Tide
Sun -- 02:10 PM EST     1.48 meters High Tide
Sun -- 03:07 PM EST     Moonrise
Sun -- 04:35 PM EST     Sunset
Sun -- 09:21 PM EST     1.46 meters Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Sorel, Quebec, Tide feet
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Tide / Current Tables for Islets Perces, Quebec
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Islets Perces
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Sun -- 03:16 AM EST     0.88 meters High Tide
Sun -- 06:55 AM EST     Moonset
Sun -- 07:29 AM EST     Sunrise
Sun -- 11:21 AM EST     0.84 meters Low Tide
Sun -- 01:29 PM EST     0.84 meters High Tide
Sun -- 03:06 PM EST     Moonrise
Sun -- 04:34 PM EST     Sunset
Sun -- 10:12 PM EST     0.79 meters Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Islets Perces, Quebec, Tide feet
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