Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Mooers, NY
April 28, 2024 2:44 AM EDT (06:44 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 5:45 AM Sunset 8:00 PM Moonrise 12:30 AM Moonset 8:19 AM |
SLZ024 Expires:202404280915;;497863 Fzus61 Kbuf 280220 Glfsl
forecast for the saint lawrence river including the thousand islands region national weather service buffalo ny 1020 pm edt Sat apr 27 2024
slz022-024-280915- saint lawrence river from cape vincent to saint regis 1020 pm edt Sat apr 27 2024
Overnight - South winds 5 to 15 knots. A chance of showers.
Sunday - Southwest winds 5 to 15 knots. A chance of showers through early afternoon, then showers likely with a chance of Thunderstorms late.
Sunday night - West winds 5 to 10 knots becoming north. Showers likely with a chance of Thunderstorms in the evening, then a chance of showers overnight.
Monday - Northeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Mostly cloudy in the morning, then becoming partly Sunny.
Monday night - Northeast winds 5 to 10 knots. A chance of showers in the evening, then showers likely overnight.
Tuesday - Northeast winds 10 knots or less. Showers with a chance of Thunderstorms.
Wednesday - North winds 10 knots or less becoming south. Partly to mostly cloudy.
Thursday - Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots becoming south. A chance of showers Thursday night.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.
forecast for the saint lawrence river including the thousand islands region national weather service buffalo ny 1020 pm edt Sat apr 27 2024
slz022-024-280915- saint lawrence river from cape vincent to saint regis 1020 pm edt Sat apr 27 2024
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.
SLZ005
No data
No data
Area Discussion for - Burlington, VT
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FXUS61 KBTV 280602 AFDBTV
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 202 AM EDT Sun Apr 28 2024
SYNOPSIS
Unsettled weather returns to the region tonight into early this upcoming week with several rounds of showers and embedded rumbles of thunder expected. The first batch occurs tonight into Sunday morning, with another round possible on Sunday evening, followed by more shower chances on Tuesday. Temperatures will be above normal, especially overnight lows with values ranging in the mid 40s to mid 50s and highs mid 60s to lower 70s.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/
As of 150 AM EDT Sunday...Forecast remains largely on track with the batch of showers from the warm front earlier reaching the CT River valley. While we are currently in a lull in rainfall, the next feature of interest associated with a cold front is showing up on radar. A line of thunderstorms is seen near Ottawa, Ontario. RAP mesoanalysis shows an axis of rather steep 2-6km AGL lapse rates of up to 7.5C/km. So thinking that the thunderstorms should hold themselves together and reach portions of northern NY and northern VT during the pre-dawn into early morning hours. So blended in some hi-res guidance to better reflect the PoPs in the next 6 hours. There is nothing strong or severe, but don't be surprised to hear some rumbles of thunder and see brief locally heavy downpours first thing Sunday morning.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...The first round of rainfall associated with the decaying frontal boundary was rather lackluster given a plethora of dry air in place this afternoon. While we have begun to saturate, rainfall is coming to an end with little accumulating rainfall to speak of. Additional showers and possibly some elevated thunderstorms remain possible overnight into the pre-dawn hours which will be the focus for any additional rainfall. Recent CAMS show the activity to be isolated while the global guidance suggests more widespread rainfall activity. Nevertheless, additional rainfall amounts will likely be under a quarter of an inch.
Previous Discussion...Unsettled wx returns to our cwa tonight into Sunday associated with a series of warm frnt features, followed by a weak cold frnt on Sunday aftn/evening. Changeable conditions can be anticipated over the next 12 to 36 hrs. Water vapor shows enhanced mid lvl moisture lifting acrs our cwa this aftn associated with warm frnt, while radar indicates band of precip, but very little is reaching the ground. Secondary s/w energy wl cont to lift ne in the progressive sw flow aloft overnight into early Sunday morning. This additional lift wl interact with increasing elevated instability to produce showers with a threat of embedded thunderstorms. NAM/HRRR most unstable CAPE parameters are pretty impressive for late April with values in the 800-1200 J/kg, while not anticipating severe, a few stronger downpours are likely in the heavier convective elements. Also, have noted a sharp surge in pw values from 0.25 this aftn to 1.25 by Sunday, indicating the strong moisture advection. Highest pops and greatest potential for thunder wl be btwn 2 AM and 8 AM Sunday. Lows range from the upper 30s/lower 40s NEK to lower 50s SLV, with near 50F here in the CPV.
For Sunday, pattern is messy acrs our cwa with initial warm frnt nearby, while a decaying cold frnt approaches from the nw late in the day. Not anticipating the entire day to be a washout, but scattered showers are possible from time to time, especially associated with weak boundary during the aftn hours. Instability wl be driven off sfc temps, which wl be impacted by areal extent of clouds. Thinking sfc based cape values of 250 to 600 J/kg are possible with some sun helping to warm temps back into the upper 60s to mid 70s. Progged 925mb temps in 11-13C range support this thinking, but if more sun develops, highs could easily be another 2 to 4 degrees warmer or if more clouds/showers linger values could be cooler. Also, much higher humidity values are likely with pw values holding around 1.0, while sfc dwpts warm into the upper 40s to mid 50s. A weak cold frnt conts to be draped acrs our cwa on Sunday night with additional scattered showers possible. Highest potential looks to be btwn 00z-06z acrs central/northern VT. The lack of instability should limit thunder threat on Sunday night as temps cool back into the 40s to near 50F. Total qpf over the next 12 to 36 hrs is challenging and wl vary from one location to another, but many spots should receive a wetting rainfall, helping minimal additional fire weather concerns.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT/
As of 333 PM EDT Saturday...The work week will start with amplified ridging, which would provide a very dry northerly surface wind flow and high seasonable temperatures in the lower 60s to lower 70s. No precipitation is anticipated as impressively dry air in the 600-900mb layer mixes to the surface. There could be some funneling for the Champlain Valley in the northerly winds causing gusts 10-15 knots.
A surge of moisture will move southwest to northeast into the forecast area Monday, primarily producing high clouds that will gradually lower by Monday night with a shortwave and surface low pressure approaching. With the increased clouds Monday night, lows will be about 5 or so degrees above climatological normals with temperatures reaching the 40s to lower 50s. Precipitation chances will be mainly 20-40%, rising to 40-60% in northern New York late Monday night. A thick warm nose 800-900mb will keep conditions fairly stable overnight, limiting chance of thunderstorms, but lightning is not completely out of the question for northern New York as CAPE values gradually increase.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
As of 333 PM EDT Saturday...Weak low pressure under a mid/upper shortwave will work away at ridging over the forecast area Tuesday and Tuesday night. The best chances of precipitation will occur during the afternoon Tuesday, and some elevated thunderstorms are possible in southwestern zones where highest CAPE values are projected Tuesday afternoon.
Models are projecting precipitable water values reaching up to 1.00- 1.20 inches, above 90% for this time of year, due to moisture being transported all the way from the Gulf of Mexico. Most of our forecast area is under the marginal category for excessive rainfall for Tuesday and Tuesday night. Marginal category indicates there's at least 5% risk of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance within 25 miles of a point.
All that being said, forcing appears relatively weak (especially if low pressure tracks south of us) with limited instability, and water vapor transport is not expected to be strong. While there might be a solid amount of moisture in the atmosphere over us, we are not likely to have all of it come out of the clouds to the surface.
Also, the period for rainfall is short and characterized by mostly showery precip. River model guidance is not showing notable rises towards action stage. High temperatures through the midweek will be around or just below normal in the upper 50s and 60s.
As the previous forecaster stated, we have a bit of a "rinse and repeat" with the weather pattern as we move through the week.
Ridging and dry weather will return Wednesday and Thursday before another system arrives to bring increased chances of precipitation.
Highs will increase for the late week into the 70s for most with south/southwesterly surface winds.
AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
Through 06Z Monday...Currently all TAF sites are seeing VFR conditions. The air mass remains quite dry so showers are mainly on the light side and ceilings are mainly above the VFR threshold. That being said, could see brief MVFR ceilings at KRUT through 12z Sunday. Winds are currently from the south, but are expected to switch to more southwesterly in the 18-21z Sunday time frame. Most sites should see sustained winds of 5-10 kt, but gusts of 20 kt are likely for KBTV, KMSS, and KSLK through 00z Monday. A line of thunderstorms currently near Ottawa, Ontario is moving southeast and could impact KBTV and potentially KEFK from 09-13z Sunday time frame in a weakened state so introduced MVFR tempo groups for the former. Scattered rain showers are expected to impact all terminals through 00z Monday. Increasing atmospheric moisture profile during the day on Sunday should yield a lowering of ceilings down to 1500 to 3500 ft with the greatest chances of MVFR ceilings being across southern Vermont and KSLK.
Outlook...
Sunday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Monday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Monday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Tuesday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Tuesday Night: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Wednesday: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Slight chance SHRA.
Wednesday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Slight chance SHRA.
Thursday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance SHRA.
BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VT...None.
NY...None.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 202 AM EDT Sun Apr 28 2024
SYNOPSIS
Unsettled weather returns to the region tonight into early this upcoming week with several rounds of showers and embedded rumbles of thunder expected. The first batch occurs tonight into Sunday morning, with another round possible on Sunday evening, followed by more shower chances on Tuesday. Temperatures will be above normal, especially overnight lows with values ranging in the mid 40s to mid 50s and highs mid 60s to lower 70s.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/
As of 150 AM EDT Sunday...Forecast remains largely on track with the batch of showers from the warm front earlier reaching the CT River valley. While we are currently in a lull in rainfall, the next feature of interest associated with a cold front is showing up on radar. A line of thunderstorms is seen near Ottawa, Ontario. RAP mesoanalysis shows an axis of rather steep 2-6km AGL lapse rates of up to 7.5C/km. So thinking that the thunderstorms should hold themselves together and reach portions of northern NY and northern VT during the pre-dawn into early morning hours. So blended in some hi-res guidance to better reflect the PoPs in the next 6 hours. There is nothing strong or severe, but don't be surprised to hear some rumbles of thunder and see brief locally heavy downpours first thing Sunday morning.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...The first round of rainfall associated with the decaying frontal boundary was rather lackluster given a plethora of dry air in place this afternoon. While we have begun to saturate, rainfall is coming to an end with little accumulating rainfall to speak of. Additional showers and possibly some elevated thunderstorms remain possible overnight into the pre-dawn hours which will be the focus for any additional rainfall. Recent CAMS show the activity to be isolated while the global guidance suggests more widespread rainfall activity. Nevertheless, additional rainfall amounts will likely be under a quarter of an inch.
Previous Discussion...Unsettled wx returns to our cwa tonight into Sunday associated with a series of warm frnt features, followed by a weak cold frnt on Sunday aftn/evening. Changeable conditions can be anticipated over the next 12 to 36 hrs. Water vapor shows enhanced mid lvl moisture lifting acrs our cwa this aftn associated with warm frnt, while radar indicates band of precip, but very little is reaching the ground. Secondary s/w energy wl cont to lift ne in the progressive sw flow aloft overnight into early Sunday morning. This additional lift wl interact with increasing elevated instability to produce showers with a threat of embedded thunderstorms. NAM/HRRR most unstable CAPE parameters are pretty impressive for late April with values in the 800-1200 J/kg, while not anticipating severe, a few stronger downpours are likely in the heavier convective elements. Also, have noted a sharp surge in pw values from 0.25 this aftn to 1.25 by Sunday, indicating the strong moisture advection. Highest pops and greatest potential for thunder wl be btwn 2 AM and 8 AM Sunday. Lows range from the upper 30s/lower 40s NEK to lower 50s SLV, with near 50F here in the CPV.
For Sunday, pattern is messy acrs our cwa with initial warm frnt nearby, while a decaying cold frnt approaches from the nw late in the day. Not anticipating the entire day to be a washout, but scattered showers are possible from time to time, especially associated with weak boundary during the aftn hours. Instability wl be driven off sfc temps, which wl be impacted by areal extent of clouds. Thinking sfc based cape values of 250 to 600 J/kg are possible with some sun helping to warm temps back into the upper 60s to mid 70s. Progged 925mb temps in 11-13C range support this thinking, but if more sun develops, highs could easily be another 2 to 4 degrees warmer or if more clouds/showers linger values could be cooler. Also, much higher humidity values are likely with pw values holding around 1.0, while sfc dwpts warm into the upper 40s to mid 50s. A weak cold frnt conts to be draped acrs our cwa on Sunday night with additional scattered showers possible. Highest potential looks to be btwn 00z-06z acrs central/northern VT. The lack of instability should limit thunder threat on Sunday night as temps cool back into the 40s to near 50F. Total qpf over the next 12 to 36 hrs is challenging and wl vary from one location to another, but many spots should receive a wetting rainfall, helping minimal additional fire weather concerns.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT/
As of 333 PM EDT Saturday...The work week will start with amplified ridging, which would provide a very dry northerly surface wind flow and high seasonable temperatures in the lower 60s to lower 70s. No precipitation is anticipated as impressively dry air in the 600-900mb layer mixes to the surface. There could be some funneling for the Champlain Valley in the northerly winds causing gusts 10-15 knots.
A surge of moisture will move southwest to northeast into the forecast area Monday, primarily producing high clouds that will gradually lower by Monday night with a shortwave and surface low pressure approaching. With the increased clouds Monday night, lows will be about 5 or so degrees above climatological normals with temperatures reaching the 40s to lower 50s. Precipitation chances will be mainly 20-40%, rising to 40-60% in northern New York late Monday night. A thick warm nose 800-900mb will keep conditions fairly stable overnight, limiting chance of thunderstorms, but lightning is not completely out of the question for northern New York as CAPE values gradually increase.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
As of 333 PM EDT Saturday...Weak low pressure under a mid/upper shortwave will work away at ridging over the forecast area Tuesday and Tuesday night. The best chances of precipitation will occur during the afternoon Tuesday, and some elevated thunderstorms are possible in southwestern zones where highest CAPE values are projected Tuesday afternoon.
Models are projecting precipitable water values reaching up to 1.00- 1.20 inches, above 90% for this time of year, due to moisture being transported all the way from the Gulf of Mexico. Most of our forecast area is under the marginal category for excessive rainfall for Tuesday and Tuesday night. Marginal category indicates there's at least 5% risk of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance within 25 miles of a point.
All that being said, forcing appears relatively weak (especially if low pressure tracks south of us) with limited instability, and water vapor transport is not expected to be strong. While there might be a solid amount of moisture in the atmosphere over us, we are not likely to have all of it come out of the clouds to the surface.
Also, the period for rainfall is short and characterized by mostly showery precip. River model guidance is not showing notable rises towards action stage. High temperatures through the midweek will be around or just below normal in the upper 50s and 60s.
As the previous forecaster stated, we have a bit of a "rinse and repeat" with the weather pattern as we move through the week.
Ridging and dry weather will return Wednesday and Thursday before another system arrives to bring increased chances of precipitation.
Highs will increase for the late week into the 70s for most with south/southwesterly surface winds.
AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
Through 06Z Monday...Currently all TAF sites are seeing VFR conditions. The air mass remains quite dry so showers are mainly on the light side and ceilings are mainly above the VFR threshold. That being said, could see brief MVFR ceilings at KRUT through 12z Sunday. Winds are currently from the south, but are expected to switch to more southwesterly in the 18-21z Sunday time frame. Most sites should see sustained winds of 5-10 kt, but gusts of 20 kt are likely for KBTV, KMSS, and KSLK through 00z Monday. A line of thunderstorms currently near Ottawa, Ontario is moving southeast and could impact KBTV and potentially KEFK from 09-13z Sunday time frame in a weakened state so introduced MVFR tempo groups for the former. Scattered rain showers are expected to impact all terminals through 00z Monday. Increasing atmospheric moisture profile during the day on Sunday should yield a lowering of ceilings down to 1500 to 3500 ft with the greatest chances of MVFR ceilings being across southern Vermont and KSLK.
Outlook...
Sunday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Monday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Monday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Tuesday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Tuesday Night: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Wednesday: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Slight chance SHRA.
Wednesday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Slight chance SHRA.
Thursday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance SHRA.
BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VT...None.
NY...None.
Airport Reports
EDIT (hide/show) Help Click EDIT to display multiple airports. Follow links for more data.Sorel
Click for Map
Sat -- 02:27 AM EDT 1.37 meters Low Tide
Sat -- 05:44 AM EDT Sunrise
Sat -- 05:51 AM EDT 1.37 meters High Tide
Sat -- 07:22 AM EDT Moonset
Sat -- 01:42 PM EDT 1.34 meters Low Tide
Sat -- 07:56 PM EDT Sunset
Sat -- 08:33 PM EDT 1.38 meters High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Click for Map
Sat -- 02:27 AM EDT 1.37 meters Low Tide
Sat -- 05:44 AM EDT Sunrise
Sat -- 05:51 AM EDT 1.37 meters High Tide
Sat -- 07:22 AM EDT Moonset
Sat -- 01:42 PM EDT 1.34 meters Low Tide
Sat -- 07:56 PM EDT Sunset
Sat -- 08:33 PM EDT 1.38 meters High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorel, Quebec, Tide feet
| 12 am |
| 1.4 |
| 1 am |
| 1.4 |
| 2 am |
| 1.4 |
| 3 am |
| 1.4 |
| 4 am |
| 1.4 |
| 5 am |
| 1.4 |
| 6 am |
| 1.4 |
| 7 am |
| 1.4 |
| 8 am |
| 1.4 |
| 9 am |
| 1.4 |
| 10 am |
| 1.4 |
| 11 am |
| 1.4 |
| 12 pm |
| 1.3 |
| 1 pm |
| 1.3 |
| 2 pm |
| 1.3 |
| 3 pm |
| 1.3 |
| 4 pm |
| 1.4 |
| 5 pm |
| 1.4 |
| 6 pm |
| 1.4 |
| 7 pm |
| 1.4 |
| 8 pm |
| 1.4 |
| 9 pm |
| 1.4 |
| 10 pm |
| 1.4 |
| 11 pm |
| 1.4 |
Islets Perces
Click for Map
Sat -- 03:55 AM EDT 0.93 meters Low Tide
Sat -- 05:43 AM EDT Sunrise
Sat -- 06:48 AM EDT 0.93 meters High Tide
Sat -- 07:21 AM EDT Moonset
Sat -- 02:52 PM EDT 0.89 meters Low Tide
Sat -- 07:55 PM EDT Sunset
Sat -- 09:01 PM EDT 0.91 meters High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Click for Map
Sat -- 03:55 AM EDT 0.93 meters Low Tide
Sat -- 05:43 AM EDT Sunrise
Sat -- 06:48 AM EDT 0.93 meters High Tide
Sat -- 07:21 AM EDT Moonset
Sat -- 02:52 PM EDT 0.89 meters Low Tide
Sat -- 07:55 PM EDT Sunset
Sat -- 09:01 PM EDT 0.91 meters High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Islets Perces, Quebec, Tide feet
| 12 am |
| 0.9 |
| 1 am |
| 0.9 |
| 2 am |
| 0.9 |
| 3 am |
| 0.9 |
| 4 am |
| 0.9 |
| 5 am |
| 0.9 |
| 6 am |
| 0.9 |
| 7 am |
| 0.9 |
| 8 am |
| 0.9 |
| 9 am |
| 0.9 |
| 10 am |
| 0.9 |
| 11 am |
| 0.9 |
| 12 pm |
| 0.9 |
| 1 pm |
| 0.9 |
| 2 pm |
| 0.9 |
| 3 pm |
| 0.9 |
| 4 pm |
| 0.9 |
| 5 pm |
| 0.9 |
| 6 pm |
| 0.9 |
| 7 pm |
| 0.9 |
| 8 pm |
| 0.9 |
| 9 pm |
| 0.9 |
| 10 pm |
| 0.9 |
| 11 pm |
| 0.9 |
Burlington, VT,
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