Thursday, September23, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Stephenson, MI

Version 3.4
NOTICE
3/30/2021 -- ANZ330 has been split into ANZ331 and ANZ332. Click EDIT in Marine Forecast and select your new zone.
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 6:39AMSunset 6:48PM Thursday September 23, 2021 9:40 PM CDT (02:40 UTC) Moonrise 8:09PMMoonset 9:15AM Illumination 93% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 17 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ521 Green Bay South Of Line From Cedar River To Rock Island Passage And North Of A Line From Oconto Wi To Little Sturgeon Bay Wi- Green Bay South Of Line From Oconto Wi To Little Sturgeon Bay Wi- 1200 Pm Cdt Thu Sep 23 2021
.small craft advisory in effect until 10 pm cdt this evening...
This afternoon..N wind 15 to 25 kts with gusts to 30 kts. Waves 4 to 7 ft. A chance of showers.
Tonight..N wind 10 to 15 kts backing nw 5 to 10 kts in the late evening and overnight. Waves 4 to 7 ft subsiding to 2 to 4 ft after midnight. A slight chance of showers in the evening.
Friday..SW wind 10 to 15 kts. Waves 1 to 3 ft. A chance of showers in the afternoon.
Friday night..SW wind 15 to 25 kts veering W in the late evening and overnight. Waves 1 to 3 ft. Rain showers likely in the evening. A small craft advisory may be needed.
LMZ521 Expires:202109232215;;063058 FZUS53 KGRB 231700 NSHGRB Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Green Bay WI 1200 PM CDT Thu Sep 23 2021 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lake Michigan LMZ521-522-232215-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Stephenson, MI
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location: 45.42, -87.34     debug


Area Discussion for - Marquette, MI
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FXUS63 KMQT 232345 AFDMQT

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Marquette MI 745 PM EDT Thu Sep 23 2021

SHORT TERM. (This evening through Friday) Issued at 356 PM EDT THU SEP 23 2021

As we begin our discussion for the weather setup for today, several folks will notice the continued cool temperatures for the east half of the UP, as cloud cover and weak CAA keep the area feeling like fall. Further to the west, mostly sunny conditions has resulted in slightly warmer temperatures this afternoon. A look at GOES satellite imagery shows the upper level low slowly meandering its way northward over Lower MI toward Lake Huron this afternoon. WV imagery further supports this as a majority of the east half of the UP has a very good plume of moisture present. This is bringing a lot of moisture in the form of steady, persistent rainfall over the far east portions of the UP. Chilly temperatures in the upper 40s to near 50 will be the result as this cool air makes its way across the east half where the more persistent rain bands occur. Visibility and low cloud cover has been observed thus far as the occluded surface low wraps the bands of -shra to +shra in a ccw direction this afternoon. Additionally, breezy winds have been observed due to the pressure gradient of the surface low to our se, and the surface high to the west.

Further to the west, an upper level ridge continues to build at the H5 levels over the Northern CONUS, and the surface high pressure will assist with dry air remaining present for a majority for the west half of the UP this afternoon and evening. We can expect pleasant conditions for the west half as they will have mild conditions, near seasonal average through sunset for the west half. For the east half this afternoon and evening, the cloud cover will continue to build to the west; likely making its way to central UP before then beginning a retrograding trajectory back toward the east as the occluded low makes its way out of our cwa. Essentially, expect the -shra to make it close to the city of Marquette and KSAW, before its reversal in direction. The precipitation will end in the east half as the weather system slowly moves toward Ontario/Quebec.

For tonight, the system will continue its trek to the east, and surface high pressure will move across the cwa. The overnight low forecast will be slightly difficult to pinpoint with high accuracy over the interior west. This is due to the next approaching shortwave from the west that is on the heels of the surface high pressure. Cloud cover will slowly build between 6Z-12Z Friday morning over the west half as WAA at 850mb occurs. We will have cloud cover moving to the east from the departing occluded surface low, and a narrow window of reduced cloud cover because of the surface high pressure moving across the area, before another round of clouds begins to build furthest to the west by morning. Light winds are anticipated, but due to the higher likelihood of increased clouds in comparison to last night, we are not anticipating patchy frost. However, patchy ground fog may be possible as the temperatures across interior west decrease to the upper 30s to near 40. Most areas should remain in the 40s overnight for lows, with the exception of areas closest to the lakeshores where minimums near 50 degrees can be expected.

As previously mentioned, another quick-hitting shortwave will move across the area on Friday. A surface cold front will approach the cwa from the west. Ahead of this cold FROPA, we will be in the warm sector of mid-latitude cyclone analysis. WAA at 850mb will assist with an increase in diurnal maximums for Friday, ahead of the front. Expect temperatures to be 5-10 degrees warmer for the west half, and upwards of 10-15 degrees warmer in comparison to the Thursday afternoon high temperatures. Most areas will see highs in the middle 60s to lower 70s, especially across the south central. The surface cold FROPA will sweep across the area starting around 18Z Friday for the west half, and make it through the central portions of the UP by 0Z Saturday. We can expect some -shra as the surface low/FROPA treks across the central tier of Upper Michigan, deepening as it moves to the northeast toward Lake Superior by Friday evening. Rainfall doesn't appear to be much for the developing system in its initial stages, with most areas seeing up to a tenth of an inch of QPF. We can also expect for winds to remain elevated, between 10-20mph as the pressure gradient tightens. Sounding profiles look favorable for more persistent rain showers as the weather system evolves into Friday night. Overall, we can expect seasonably cool temperatures for Thursday, and near to slightly above normal temperatures for Friday ahead of the approaching cold front.

LONG TERM. (Friday night through Thursday) Issued at 336 PM EDT THU SEP 23 2021

Friday night, a Rex block will be established over the western CONUS into the Canadian Rockies. Downstream of this blocking ridge, a fairly sharp trough will be swinging through the Upper Midwest and Upper Great Lakes with an attendant surface cold front. A short wave will be rounding the base of the trough and then attempting to cut off from the flow. It never will fully cut off, but it will become the dominant wave within the trough. Nearly all of the forecast details for Friday night and Saturday hinge on the evolution of this wave. Models have been trending stronger with the wave leading to a stronger surface cyclone along the front in response. If that happens, enough warmth and moisture could be drawn northward to generate adequate instability for thunderstorms ahead of the front rather just plain rain showers, as in the NAM. It would also mean a more pronounced commahead of rain continuing into Saturday for at least part of the area (most likely the Keweenaw) as well as more cold air being drawn down behind the developing low, leading to cooler highs on Saturday and more lake-effect enhancement to the rain. For this forecast, have hedged towards the NAM and CAMs showing a more wound-up system, but not entirely. Therefore, have included some slight chances of thunder south-central and east Friday evening and some wrap-around/lake-enhanced POPs over the Keweenaw and north-central late Friday night into Saturday morning.

Saturday continues to look partly cloudy and breezy as the pressure gradient remains tight overhead behind the front. There could be some light scattered lake-effect rain showers and/or diurnal instability showers, but models have been trending away from that today so have tempered POPs down a bit from the NBM init.

Sunday and Monday still look somewhat uncertain, though model solutions are beginning to converge relative to how spread apart they were yesterday. Late Saturday night into Sunday morning, a short wave will pass through the WNW flow aloft and may kick off a few showers. These showers will be followed by some weak to moderate isentropic lift in the 600-800 mb layer on Sunday as WAA increases aloft. GEFS and EPS do not have an impressive precip signal, but the deterministic EC and NAM both advertise showers, which is usually a reliable model combo. And overall it makes sense that there could be enough lift with this WAA. Therefore, have introduced chance POPs for Sunday. As for Monday, it still remains a question whether or not warm air aloft will continue to surge northward into the area or whether a reinforcing shot of cold air will drop southward across the U.P. in response to a short wave rounding the base of a closed upper low near James Bay. While the deterministic GFS and EC have gone the cold route, both are outliers to their respective ensemble systems. Therefore, opted not to make changes to the high temps for Monday yet. However, if the cooling trend for Monday continues, the current forecast highs around 70 would likely be too warm by about 10 degrees.

Models and ensembles then return to good agreement by Tuesday in developing an anomalously strong mid-level ridge over either the Northern Plains or the Upper Midwest. The variability among the ensembles is dominated by the speed/placement of the ridge, but overall the modeling clusters are largely all similar in showing the 500 mb ridge axis somewhere over North Dakota or Minnesota. This would leave the U.P. with warm and dry conditions for the middle of next week. The GEFS and EPS mean both show 850 mb temps near the 90th percentile of climatology for Tuesday through the end of the week. Highs should be around 70 or in the low 70s each day.

AVIATION. (For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening) Issued at 738 PM EDT THU SEP 23 2021

VFR conditions are expected at all terminals at least into Fri morning and then could trend toward MVFR cigs at KIWD and KCMX as rain moves in along a cold front later Fri afternoon. There could be an isolated shower at KSAW early this evening on the backside a weakening low to the southeast.

MARINE. (For the 4 PM Lake Superior forecast issuance) Issued at 339 PM EDT THU SEP 23 2021

Surface low pressure will slowly be moving northward across Lake Huron today, resulting in northeast winds for the east half of Lake Superior of 25-30 knots through this evening. Winds should be less than 20 knots for the west half of Lake Superior the remainder of today. On Friday, another trough is expected to approach the lake. Westerly winds from 20-25 knots can be expected through late Friday evening across the west and central portions of the lake. These winds will increase late Friday night into early Saturday morning behind a cold front. Models show the potential for a brief NW gale early Saturday morning, perhaps even over 40 kts, but only for about 1-3 hours. However, models have struggled to resolve the system with any consistency. Therefore, have included low-end gales in the forecast but opted not to issue a Gale Watch owing to low confidence. However, a Watch may be needed in future forecast packages.

The winds should then subside slightly to 25-30 knots for a majority of Saturday, before falling back down below 20 knots on Sunday. Lighter winds below 20 knots will continue to be expected the rest of the forecast period.

MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. Upper Michigan . Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for MIZ005- 006.

Lake Superior . None. Lake Michigan . None.

SHORT TERM . BW LONG TERM . RJC AVIATION . Voss MARINE . BW/RJC


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
NPDW3 - Northport Pier at Death's Door WI 21 mi60 min NNW 16 G 23 56°F 1012.2 hPa
MN4 - 9087088 - Menominee, MI 26 mi52 min N 8 G 9.9 57°F 67°F1010.9 hPa42°F
FPTM4 - Fairport, MI 39 mi60 min NNE 5.1 G 11 49°F
45014 49 mi40 min NE 12 G 14 66°F 63°F2 ft1012 hPa (+0.8)

Wind History for Menominee, MI
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N12

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Delta County Airport, MI25 mi44 minVar 510.00 miOvercast52°F45°F77%1011.8 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KESC

Wind History from ESC (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNW4NW5N5N6N4N6N76N6NW6NW6N12
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N7N8N7NW6NW45
1 day agoNW5N4N4CalmNW4NW4NW4NW4NW4NW4NW5N5N8
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N7N5NW4NW5
2 days agoS13S11
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G26
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SW8W14
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W11W9W12W9W14
G21
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NW8N12
G20
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G17
N8NW9N7N7N5CalmNW5

Tide / Current Tables for
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NOTE: This section has been updated as of 1/26/2021. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may use the EDIT function to update your location.
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