Sunrise 6:15 AM   Sunset 8:52 PM Moonrise 3:46 AM   Moonset 3:44 PM

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LMZ342 Norwood Mi To 5nm West Of Mackinac Bridge Including Little Traverse Bay- 1216 Pm Edt Sat May 4 2024
Today - East wind 15 to 20 knots decreasing to 10 to 15 knots in the afternoon. Sunny in the late morning then becoming partly Sunny. Waves 2 feet or less. Tonight - Southeast wind 10 to 15 knots. Rain showers likely and slight chance of Thunderstorms. Waves 2 feet or less. Sunday - West wind 10 to 15 knots. Mostly Sunny. Waves 2 feet or less. Sunday night - North wind 5 to 10 knots. Mostly clear. Waves 2 feet or less.
winds and waves higher in the vicinity of Thunderstorms.
see the open lakes forecast for days 3 through 5.

LMZ300
No data

FXUS63 KAPX 041759 AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gaylord MI 159 PM EDT Sat May 4 2024

KEY MESSAGES

- Showers and a few thunderstorms likely tonight.

- Thunderstorm potential Tuesday and Wednesday.

UPDATE
Issued at 1207 PM EDT Sat May 4 2024

Low cloud/fog across the southeast half of the CWA continues to erode as daytime heating intensifies, which should warm these areas quickly over the next few hours. Other areas are already heating up fast, with some locations near the Lake Michigan shoreline already climbing into the low 70s before noon. Have raised high temperatures even further from the vast majority of guidance as models struggle with these efficient mixing scenarios. Many areas along and west of I-75 are expected to warm into the mid to upper 70s -- and potentially even low 80s for some localized areas near the lakeshore where downsloping southeast winds mix low-level profiles the most.
Otherwise, a few showers will be possible near Saginaw Bay this afternoon before better shower and isolated thunderstorms return this evening.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
Synopsis/pattern: A skinny ridge of high pressure extends into the area from the ene. Low pressure system are over far northern Ontario, and over KS. The KS low will track ne across upper MI and Lk Superior tonight, sending another cold front across the area.

Forecast: Fog/status has been expanding early this morning. Fog is most extensive over Lk Huron, into parts of central lower MI.
Dense fog has been at times in obs from APN/OSC/HTL/W Branch.
Will be entertaining a dense fog advisory in that area later this morning.

Persistent synoptic e to se surface winds will aid in making these clouds slow to erode, especially close to the coast.
Strong early May sun will do a number further inland...at least mixing into a stratocu deck. Meanwhile, mid-high clouds ahead of our next system will gradually encroach on western sections from midday thru the afternoon. A general increasing cloud is progged this afternoon and evening. And not only from the west...a slug of deeper moisture will get drawn northward into the eastern lakes, scraping by eastern lower MI. Parts of se lower MI (including the Thumb) could see a few showers pop, but we are slightly displaced from this better moisture thru 8 pm.
Perhaps, toward early evening, some initial showers from the KS system could reach far western Mack Co.

Max temps toward the high end of guidance, mainly 70s, with 60s near Lake Huron.

Cold front gradually crosses the area tonight. Best precip chances for this event look to slightly lag this boundary, while best instability (MuCape 300-500j/kg) is directly on the front.
The highest pops (likely showers and a slight chance for thunder) will progress w to e across the area tonight (especially from late evening on). Moisture availability is not ideal, and QPF is progged at around or less than 0.25" across the area. Though we do have some shear around, instability this far north does not appear conducive to a svr threat from elevated convection tonight.

Min temps lower 40s to lower 50s.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST:

It was a period of atmospheric upheaval over the Plains...as convection fired along a dryline in the warm sector of a southern stream system over the southern Plains. Low-amplitude longwave troughing across the northern Plains, with some increase in warm/moist advection into the Upper Midwest ahead of this. Here in the Great Lakes...high pressure briefly taking over parts of the area, especially northern MI, in the wake of a system that brought early-day rain to the region...and lingering low-level moisture causing reduced visibilities across NE Lower
Upstream
another potent trough approaches the Pacific NW.

This latter trough looks to set the tone for next week...as it plows into the central US this weekend into early next week. Brief ridging ahead of this Sunday into Monday, with pleasant weather to start the week, will give way to this shortwave trough lifting across the central CONUS as we go into Tuesday. All eyes are on this feature for a period of active weather through at least midweek...as it drags a warm front northward into the Great Lakes going into Tuesday night or so. A second wave of energy slipping through lingering longwave troughing over the Plains should keep the activity going into the latter half of next week. Signals currently point toward troughing hanging over the region into late next week, and perhaps beyond....with some potential for cooler weather (at least "normal", if not even slightly below) to be the norm for a change going to mid- month...just when we don't want it.

Primary Forecast Concerns:

Thunderstorm potential Tuesday/Wednesday...Still way too early to nail down the major details...but setup is definitely supportive of activity for Tuesday into Wednesday... as current signals for negatively tilted trough axis to lift across the Upper Midwest during this timeframe have piqued at least my interest, and certainly the interest of convection fanatics, as these tend to be more dynamic systems with more oomph
Additionally
this idea could lead to an occluding surface low along a warm front in our vicinity, which could further complicate/enhance potential thunderstorm hazards with this system. Some potential for anomalous deep moisture along said warm front as well, which bears watching as well, for hydrology purposes, depending on how dry we are ahead of the front.
All this being said...not impossible that the better ingredients for severe weather may end up remaining to our south/southwest, as usual, particularly if the warm front stalls over us/low occludes in our region...in which case it may be more likely we'll be in stratiform rain with embedded thunder...which, for what it's worth, could also lean a little toward a locally heavy rain threat. Bottom line...keep an eye on the forecast for Tuesday/Wednesday next week.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/

IFR/MVFR CIGs are expected to continue at APN through this afternoon and tonight as southeast winds keep low stratus/BR/FG in place, and will eventually rise to VFR later Sunday morning. Otherwise, VFR conditions are anticipated at other northern Michigan TAF sites through the early evening hours. MVFR/IFR CIGs are expected to move in late this evening and overnight, accompanying chances for rain showers into Sunday morning. VFR conditions are anticipated across all TAF sites by early Sunday afternoon.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...None.
MARINE...None.

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