Saturday, October23, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Wheeler, OR

Version 3.4
NOTICE
3/30/2021 -- ANZ330 has been split into ANZ331 and ANZ332. Click EDIT in Marine Forecast and select your new zone.
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 7:38AMSunset 6:14PM Saturday October 23, 2021 12:53 PM PDT (19:53 UTC) Moonrise 6:55PMMoonset 9:51AM Illumination 92% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 18 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PZZ250 Coastal Waters From Cape Shoalwater Wa To Cascade Head Or Out 10 Nm- 1026 Am Pdt Sat Oct 23 2021
.storm warning in effect from Sunday morning through Monday morning...
Rest of today..W 10 to 15 kt. Wind waves sw 4 ft at 5 seconds. W swell 11 ft at 12 seconds. Rain likely in the morning.
Tonight..S wind to 10 kt, becoming se 15 to 20 kt with gusts to 25 kt after midnight. Wind waves se 4 ft at 5 seconds. W swell 10 ft at 12 seconds.
Sun..S wind 25 to 35 kt with gusts to 50 kt. Combined seas 16 ft with a dominant period of 16 seconds. Showers. Chance of tstms. Waterspouts possible.
Sun night..S wind 25 to 35 kt with gusts to 50 kt. Combined seas to 30 ft with a dominant period of 17 seconds. Showers and a chance of tstms. Waterspouts possible.
Mon..S wind 25 to 30 kt with gusts to 35 kt, becoming sw 20 to 25 kt with gusts to 30 kt in the afternoon. Combined seas 25 ft with a dominant period of 15 seconds in the morning. Showers and a slight chance of tstms.
Mon night..SW wind 20 to 25 kt with gusts to 30 kt, easing to 15 to 20 kt with gusts to 25 kt after midnight. Wind waves sw 6 ft at 6 seconds. W swell 19 ft at 14 seconds. Showers.
Tue..SW wind 20 to 25 kt. Wind waves 7 ft. W swell 16 ft.
Wed..S wind 10 to 15 kt. Wind waves 3 ft. W swell 14 ft.
PZZ200 1026 Am Pdt Sat Oct 23 2021
Synopsis for the southern washington and northern oregon coast.. A very strong low pressure area is forecast to develop over the ne pac Saturday night and Sunday then move toward vancouver island Monday. Storm force wind gusts are expected at times late Saturday night through Monday morning. Wave heights around 30 feet are expected Sunday night and will remain above 20 feet through Monday night. Additionally, Thunderstorms are expected Sunday afternoon and evening along with some potential of waterspouts. Another front crosses the waters Tuesday afternoon with much milder conditions on Wednesday, although seas still remain above 10 feet.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Wheeler, OR
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location: 45.67, -123.93     debug


Area Discussion for - Portland, OR
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FXUS66 KPQR 231723 AAA AFDPQR

Area Forecast Discussion . UPDATED National Weather Service Portland OR 1022 AM PDT Sat Oct 23 2021

Updated aviation discussion.

SYNOPSIS. Light rain across the area this morning will taper to showers this afternoon. A strong fall storm will impact the region tonight through Monday night with strong winds, locally heavy rain, and chances for thunderstorms on Sunday, The worst conditions will be found along the coast, with hazardous conditions also expected in the adjacent coastal waters.

SHORT TERM. THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT . The upper level pattern this morning is characterized by a broad longwave trough centered over the Gulf of Alaska and spanning much of the north Pacific, with the Pacific NW situated in moist onshore flow on the periphery of this feature. Light rain is ongoing across the area and should continue through late morning ahead of another weak frontal boundary/surface trough pushing onshore. Rain will taper off to showers from west to east during the afternoon in the wake of the front before a much stronger system begins to impact the region late tonight. Speaking of which, a developing wave is currently noted on water vapor satellite imagery over the north Pacific near 45N 160W. This feature will race eastward today and undergo explosive cyclogenesis beneath the left exit region of an intense 180+ knot jet streak rounding the base of the longwave trough. Despite some lingering model differences with respect to exact position and intensity, there remains a general consensus in placing a historically deep sub-950 mb surface low approximately 350 miles off of the Washington coast by tomorrow morning. This low will then track towards Vancouver Island through Monday evening as it slowly fills and weakens to around 980 mb, presenting a host of weather concerns for NW Oregon and SW Washington in the coming days.

First, there remains a high likelihood of a fairly prolonged period of strong winds impacting coastal areas as the storm passes offshore. Have upgraded the High Wind Watch to a warning for the Central OR Coast from Sunday morning through Monday morning as confidence grows that the beaches and coastal headlands will see gusts as high as 65 mph in this timeframe. Will likely follow suit with the North OR and South WA Coasts later today, but left the watch in place for now to better resolve timing of the onset of stronger winds for these parts of the coast. Meanwhile, breezy conditions are also likely through the Willamette and Lower Columbia River Valleys. Thinking is basically unchanged, with foliage still on the trees adding to potential impacts even if winds don't technically reach advisory criteria. A Wind Advisory therefore remains in place from Sunday morning to Monday morning for widespread gusts to 40 mph and locally higher gusts possible.

Of course, plenty of rainfall is also expected to accompany this system as the front traverses the area late tonight through Sunday afternoon, followed by widespread showers through Monday night as the low moves overhead. Expect the Coast Range to pickup another 2-3 inches with locally higher amounts through Tuesday morning while interior valley locations stay closer to 1 inch. Hydro concerns still look to be rather minimal given the progressive nature of the pattern and the current state of the mainstem rivers. Still will have to watch for localized ponding of water and things of the nature, especially with any convective cells Sunday into Sunday night. Snow levels should remain relatively high through the duration of the event, with potential accumulations likely limited to areas above 5000 feet and not significantly impacting area passes.

Finally, there remains a favorable setup for coastal thunderstorms, some of which could be strong to severe Sunday afternoon and evening. Lapse rates will steepen substantially during the day on Sunday as the upper trough nears the region and drops 500 mb temps to around -25 C, which should be sufficient to generate 100-200 J/kg of ML CAPE and around 500 J/kg of SB CAPE. Strong deep layer sheer and veering wind profiles in the lowest levels of the atmosphere will promote strong rotation, characterized by 0-1 km helicity values in excess of 200 m2/s2 in the vicinity of the coast. These factors suggest an unusually favorable environment for low topped supercells and perhaps a few tornadoes moving onto the coast, not unlike the setup in October of 2016. Those along the coast should pay close attention to the forecast and make sure you have a reliable way to receive warnings. The thunderstorm threat will also expand inland to the Willamette Valley on Sunday afternoon, but conditions should be a little less conducive to strong thunderstorms than the coastal areas given the comparatively weaker low level wind field. /CB

LONG TERM. TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY . The pattern will start to de-amplify and calm down at least somewhat by Tuesday in the wake of the upcoming system, but still generally looks to stay on the wet and cool side through much of next week as mean upper level troughing continues to reside over Alaska and the North Pacific. WPC cluster analysis offers some support for modest height rises which could signal a brief reprieve during the middle part of the week, but another system then looks to impact the region towards the end of the week. Utilized an ensemble heavy approach and maintained chance PoPs through much of the period given relatively large model spread. /CB

AVIATION. 18Z TAFs: Front nearing the coast at 17Z with MVFR conditions prevailing, but occasional IFR visibilities as well. Inland is generally VFR, after some brief MVFR earlier. With the front a little slower moving inland still think there is a decent chance for MVFR to fill-in for inland TAF sites for a few hours. But after that will see a trend toward VFR as precipitation decreases. The evening hours should be dry but next system will be spreading rain overnight but generally VFR, except for the coast will likely have MVFR conditions after 12Z Sun. Also winds will increase late tonight especially at the coast with southeast wind 15 kt gusts to 25 kt.

For detailed regional Pac NW aviation weather information, go online to: https://weather.gov/zse

KPDX AND APPROACHES . Currently VFR at the terminal area, but still expecting MVFR conditions through 20Z or so as the front moves through. The expect VFR to prevail with clouds gradually dissipating late afternoon and evening as offshore flow develops. This evening an east wind develops at KTTD and the west end of the Gorge and strengthens after 06Z Sun with gusts 25-35 kt possible. Weishaar

MARINE. The next frontal system is moving through the coastal waters early this morning. At 08Z gusts to 30 kt were noted at buoy 46089. This matches well with the 06Z NAM initialization and the 06 hr GFS forecast. Will continue with the current gale warnings. Models continue to hint at a short-lived coastal jet generally 5-25 nm offshore early this morning with peak gusts 35-40 kt. Wind speeds quickly diminish Sat afternoon, falling to 10 kt or less by 00Z Sun. Attention then turns to the Sunday- Tuesday time frame. The 00Z model guidance maintains the general picture of a 950 mb low pres near 45N 134W at 12Z Sun. The operational GFS shows a central pres of 944 mb, which is very similar to the 00Z ECMWF solution.

Wind speeds ramp up fairly quickly over the outer waters Sat night, reaching gale force speeds as early as 03Z Sun. The NAM, GFS and HiRes FV3 models are in general agreement showing 45-50 kt boundary layer wind speeds over the outer waters by 12Z Sun. The 00Z EPS ensemble mean shows 50-55 kt wind gusts over the outer waters Sun morning. Will go ahead and upgrade the Storm Watches to Storm Warnings. Storm force gusts push into the inner waters a few hours later due to the persistent east component to the low-level wind field. Wind speeds start to ease Mon morning, but gale force gusts likely to persist into early Mon evening. Models show another system pushing through the waters 12Z-18Z Tue, which may produce low-end gales.

Wave models continue to underperform. Buoy 46050 hit a peak of 22 ft Fri evening, which was several feet above any model guidance. At 08Z the spectral guidance was still 2-3 feet too low. In any event, seas will continue to slowly subside today, but remain near 10 ft. The explosive development of the low pres in the eastern Pacific will create a dynamic fetch. Wave model guidance continues to show peak heights 40-45 ft. Actual max seas associated with the low pres may end up even higher as models tend to have difficulty with such extreme ramp up. Wave heights decay to 30-35 kt upon reaching the shoreline. Model guidance has been consistent showing the peak heights at the 46050 and 46029 occurring around 05Z-08Z Mon. Seas expected to fall below 20 ft Mon night. Weishaar

BEACH HAZARDS. The powerful low and associated gale to storm force winds expected over the next few days will also generate rough and hazardous seas and produce significant coastal impacts through Monday night. A Coastal Flood Warning remains in place as swell heights will build to 20-25 feet by Sunday night into Monday, with breakers as high as 30 feet in the surf zone. Exercise extreme caution on area beaches and do not venture out onto outcroppings or jetties. /CB

PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. OR . Wind Advisory from 8 AM Sunday to 5 AM PDT Monday for Central Willamette Valley-Greater Portland Metro Area-Lower Columbia-South Willamette Valley.

Coastal Flood Warning from 8 PM Sunday to 5 AM PDT Tuesday for Central Oregon Coast-North Oregon Coast.

High Wind Watch from Sunday morning through late Sunday night for North Oregon Coast.

High Wind Warning from 5 AM Sunday to 5 AM PDT Monday for Central Oregon Coast.

WA . Wind Advisory from 8 AM Sunday to 5 AM PDT Monday for Greater Vancouver Area-I-5 Corridor in Cowlitz County.

Coastal Flood Warning from 8 PM Sunday to 5 AM PDT Tuesday for South Washington Coast.

High Wind Watch from Sunday morning through late Sunday night for South Washington Coast.

PZ . Storm Warning from 3 AM Sunday to 8 AM PDT Monday for coastal waters from Cape Shoalwater WA to Florence OR from 10 to 60 nm.

Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM PDT Sunday for Columbia River Bar.

Storm Warning from 7 AM Sunday to 8 AM PDT Monday for coastal waters from Cape Shoalwater WA to Florence OR out 10 nm.




Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
TLBO3 - 9437540 - Garibaldi, Tillamook Bay, OR 8 mi66 min 55°F1005.1 hPa
ASTO3 - 9439040 - Astoria, OR 38 mi66 min SSW 6G8 53°F 57°F1003.9 hPa
46243 - Clatsop Spit, OR - 162 39 mi58 min 55°F12 ft

Wind History for Garibaldi, OR
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Tillamook, Tillamook Airport, OR18 mi79 minSSW 9 G 1410.00 miOvercast54°F52°F94%1005.8 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KTMK

Wind History from TMK (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSW50S6S600000000000SE3E3E800SE6S13
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Tide / Current Tables for Brighton, Nehalem River, Oregon
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Brighton
Click for Map
Sat -- 03:07 AM PDT     6.52 feet High Tide
Sat -- 07:43 AM PDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 08:24 AM PDT     2.90 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 10:51 AM PDT     Moonset
Sat -- 02:13 PM PDT     7.75 feet High Tide
Sat -- 06:15 PM PDT     Sunset
Sat -- 07:54 PM PDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 09:15 PM PDT     0.08 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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Tide / Current Tables for Barview, Tillamook Bay, Oregon
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Barview
Click for Map
Sat -- 02:58 AM PDT     6.23 feet High Tide
Sat -- 07:43 AM PDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 08:26 AM PDT     2.66 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 10:51 AM PDT     Moonset
Sat -- 02:04 PM PDT     7.41 feet High Tide
Sat -- 06:15 PM PDT     Sunset
Sat -- 07:55 PM PDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 09:17 PM PDT     0.07 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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NOTE: This section has been updated as of 1/26/2021. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may use the EDIT function to update your location.
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