Thursday, October21, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Mackinac Island, MI

Version 3.4
NOTICE
3/30/2021 -- ANZ330 has been split into ANZ331 and ANZ332. Click EDIT in Marine Forecast and select your new zone.
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 8:02AMSunset 6:41PM Thursday October 21, 2021 5:20 PM EDT (21:20 UTC) Moonrise 6:22PMMoonset 7:57AM Illumination 99% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 16 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LHZ345 Straits Of Mackinac Within 5 Nm Of Mackinac Bridge Including Mackinac Island- 339 Pm Edt Thu Oct 21 2021
.small craft advisory in effect until 2 am edt Friday...
Tonight..North wind 10 to 15 knots with gusts to around 20 knots early in the evening becoming variable 10 knots or less. Mostly cloudy. Waves 2 feet or less.
Friday..Light winds. Scattered showers. Waves 2 feet or less.
Friday night..Light winds. Chance of showers. Waves 2 feet or less.
Saturday..Northwest wind 5 to 10 knots. Chance of showers. Waves 2 feet or less. SEe the open lakes forecast for days 3 through 5.
LHZ345 Expires:202110220345;;045835 FZUS53 KAPX 211939 NSHAPX Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Gaylord MI Issued by National Weather Service Marquette MI 339 PM EDT Thu Oct 21 2021 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lakes Huron... Michigan and Superior. Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. LHZ345-220345-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Mackinac Island, MI
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location: 45.86, -84.62     debug


Area Discussion for - Gaylord, MI
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FXUS63 KAPX 211955 AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gaylord MI Issued by National Weather Service Marquette MI 355 PM EDT Thu Oct 21 2021

NEAR TERM. (Through Tonight) Issued at 347 PM EDT Thu Oct 21 2021

. Cooler with light lake effect rain .

High Impact Weather Potential . Minimal

Pattern Synopsis/Forecast . Sfc low continues to shift ENE over Georgian Bay this aftn with gusty northerly winds developing in its wake. Trailing shrtwv, as evident on GOES imagery, is supporting add'l shra across much of northern Lower Michigan as cooler air is being pulled in behind exiting sfc low. Despite 850mb temps reaching lake-effect thresholds behind the low, lake- effect clouds and showers have been mostly absent. Model soundings suggest fairly dry lower levels, which seems to match up well with GOES imagery downstream of Superior across ern Upper Michigan.

Primary Forecast Concerns . lake effect rain chances, perhaps a flurry or two.

Heading into tonight, models suggest add'l moisture to increase as well as growing inversions heights and saturation depths. Despite some sct to bkn skies early on, expect sky coverage to increase with lake-effect rain chances to increase across northwest lower and eastern upper tonight into tomorrow morning. Not expecting any real snow chances, but a flurry or two embedded in the rain may occur.

SHORT TERM. (Friday through Sunday) Issued at 347 PM EDT Thu Oct 21 2021

. A Seasonably Cool, Cloudy, and Damp Weekend .

High Impact Weather Potential . Minimal

Primary Forecast Concerns . lake effect rain, perhaps some flurries

Pattern/Synopsis . An omega block pattern lingers across North America through this weekend until a powerful trough pivots into the Pacific Northwest early next week. A seasonable closed low downstream of the omega block spins near James Bay this weekend with multiple shortwaves rotating around it. This setup produces persist N/NW flow that results in widespread lake effect rain shower chances and below normal temperatures.

Forecast Details . Lake effect rain showers will be ongoing Friday morning with lake-850mb delta-Ts around 20C likely to persist into at least Sunday morning. It still appears that temperatures will be marginally too warm for frozen p-types, but the heaviest showers during the late night/early morning hours could have some snow/graupel mixing in. Any frozen hydrometeors might as well be rain since they're expected to melt on contact without accumulating. An energetic vort max and associated shortwave rotating around the closed low is expected to move through the CWA Friday night. Sounding analysis indicates inversion heights increase to ~8kft Friday night which should support more robust lake effect shower activity. Another weaker shortwave may clip northern portions of the CWA late on Saturday, but lake effect coverage/intensity will be decreasing by Sunday morning.

The next feature of interest is a surface low developing over the Central Plains on Sunday. This surface low seems likely to track well south of our CWA, but a frontogenic axis of precipitation seems likely to develop near the southern CWA border on Sunday afternoon and evening.

LONG TERM. (Sunday night through Thursday) Issued at 347 PM EDT Thu Oct 21 2021

High Impact Weather Potential . Minimal

Pattern Synopsis . 12Z model guidance is in reasonable agreement that the aforementioned surface low tracks across the Ohio Valley on Monday. At the same time, a ~1028mb surface ridge builds into Northern Ontario resulting in a fairly steep pressure gradient across the area. This should make for a raw Monday with steady easterly flow, overcast skies, and generally light rain. However, it should be noted that the 00Z ECMWF EFI and SoT product indicates potential for heavy rainfall just to our south on Sunday evening into Monday.

Our area should be drying out by Tuesday morning as ridging builds overhead while a powerful Pacific trough moves onto the Plains. A broad area of southerly flow advects a warmer than normal air mass into the area for Tuesday into Wednesday. Forecast confidence diminishes quickly on Wednesday, but there seems to be a weak consensus for a cold front passage Wednesday night or Thursday.

AVIATION. (For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon) Issued at 129 PM EDT Thu Oct 21 2021

Gusty northerly winds have taken over with colder air working behind a low pressure system exiting east over Lake Huron this aftn. IVR to MVFR conditions this aftn, with sct -shra, will transition to high-end MVFR to perhaps VFR at times this evening and early tonight. As cooler air continues to drop southward, lake-effect clouds and some iso shra will develop, with the better chances for TVC and mbL. Cigs will fall near the MVFR/VFR threshold later tonight behind a fropa with lake effect clouds and iso shra expected through Friday.

MARINE. Issued at 345 AM EDT Thu Oct 21 2021

Sfc low exits ENE this evening across Georgian Bay as gusty northerly winds continue into this evening. Increasingly cooler air over the waters will lead to unstable conditions with gusty winds at times through the weekend; however, small craft conditions are not expected after tonight.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. MI . NONE. LH . SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until 2 AM EDT Friday for LHZ345>349. LM . SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until 2 AM EDT Friday for LMZ323-341-342- 344>346. LS . SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until midnight EDT tonight for LSZ321-322.

NEAR TERM . JAW SHORT TERM . EK LONG TERM . EK AVIATION . JAW MARINE . JAW


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
45175 8 mi30 min 16G19 58°F3 ft
MACM4 - 9075080 - Mackinaw City, MI 8 mi50 min NNW 16G20 46°F 60°F1010.1 hPa36°F
45194 10 mi80 min 48°F 59°F2 ft
SRLM4 26 mi80 min NNW 20 44°F 53°F37°F
WSLM4 27 mi50 min NNW 24 43°F 52°F1011.4 hPa33°F
RCKM4 - 9076024 - Rock Cut, MI 36 mi50 min NW 16G19 58°F1009.2 hPa
WNEM4 - 9076027 - West Neebish, MI 37 mi50 min NNW 14G20 45°F 59°F1009.5 hPa34°F
DTLM4 - 9075099 - De Tour Village, MI 39 mi50 min N 18G21 45°F 60°F1009 hPa39°F
PTIM4 - 9099004 - Point Iroquois, MI 43 mi50 min NW 22G26 45°F 1010.9 hPa35°F
LTRM4 - 9076032 - Little Rapids, MI 46 mi50 min N 9.9G18 45°F 59°F1009.7 hPa35°F
NABM4 - Naubinway, MI 46 mi40 min NNW 14G20 43°F 1011.9 hPa
SWPM4 - 9076070 - S.W. Pier, MI 46 mi50 min NNE 8G15 44°F 60°F1009.8 hPa

Wind History for Mackinaw City, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Mackinac Island Airport, MI1 mi25 minNNW 16 G 2210.00 miOvercast44°F34°F68%1011.5 hPa
Cheboygan, Cheboygan County Airport, MI15 mi25 minNW 12 G 1810.00 miOvercast45°F37°F76%1010.8 hPa
Pellston Regional Airport of Emmet County, MI22 mi26 minNNW 1210.00 miOvercast47°F36°F66%1011.9 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KMCD

Wind History from MCD (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrN8N6NE7N4N5NE8NE5E4E8E4NE8NE9NE11NE13NE14NE17
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2 days agoW6SW9
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NOTE: This section has been updated as of 1/26/2021. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may use the EDIT function to update your location.
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