Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Isle, MN
May 8, 2024 7:44 PM CDT (00:44 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 5:51 AM Sunset 8:34 PM Moonrise 4:48 AM Moonset 8:52 PM |
LSZ145 /o.can.kdlh.ma.w.0033.000000t0000z-231005t2300z/ 535 Pm Cdt Thu Oct 5 2023
.the special marine warning is cancelled - .
the affected areas were - . Duluth mn to port wing wi - .
the showers have moved out of the warned area and no longer pose a significant threat to boaters.
lat - .lon 4676 9092 4687 9081 4690 9080 4693 9086 4692 9095 4684 9110 4682 9118 4683 9121 4674 9151 4686 9121 4708 9107 4710 9034 4687 9063 4673 9090 time - .mot - .loc 2234z 263deg 40kt 4703 9088 4691 9103 4677 9123
the affected areas were - . Duluth mn to port wing wi - .
the showers have moved out of the warned area and no longer pose a significant threat to boaters.
lat - .lon 4676 9092 4687 9081 4690 9080 4693 9086 4692 9095 4684 9110 4682 9118 4683 9121 4674 9151 4686 9121 4708 9107 4710 9034 4687 9063 4673 9090 time - .mot - .loc 2234z 263deg 40kt 4703 9088 4691 9103 4677 9123
LSZ100
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Area Discussion for - Twin Cities, MN
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FXUS63 KMPX 082345 AFDMPX
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN 645 PM CDT Wed May 8 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- Scattered, pulse-y thunderstorms expected this afternoon and evening across southern Minnesota. Locally heavy rain and a few strong or severe storms are possible.
- Periodic shower and thunderstorm chances will continue through early next week.
- Temperatures will remain near or above normal.
DISCUSSION
Issued at 252 PM CDT Wed May 8 2024
Our stagnant mid/upper level low pattern will slide east tonight, setting up a nearly horizontal, positively-tilted trough axis along the Minnesota/Iowa/SoDak border region. Soundings show an inverted-V setup, with cold air above a warm and dry boundary layer. Surface temps have already eclipsed 70F in much of southern Minnesota, supporting a broad area of 500 J/kg SBCAPE embedded with pockets of 1000+ J/kg along the MN/SoDak border. Steep low-level lapse rates will be enough to create a broad area of showers/storms, however lack of wind shear should prevent any longer-lived supercell convection. In other words, we are expected storms to form and dissipate quickly, leading to isolated hail and strong downdraft winds. Given the slow movement of the occluded low, some storms could tap into the effective SRH and form brief landspouts or weak non-supercell tornadoes. The main threat will shift to locally heavy rains overnight, with the highest totals expected south of the MN/IA border.
Northeasterly flow behind the occluded front will advect in slightly cooler and drier air, leading to quiet weather tomorrow afternoon/night. An upper-level shortwave disturbance will then slide southeast through the Great Lakes region on Friday. Steeper lapse rates and patches of weak MUCAPE will likely lead to a broad area of scattered showers and thunderstorms across east-central Minnesota and western Wisconsin. The main forcing, and greatest QPF, looks to be trending slightly further east into Wisconsin per model (Euro and GFS) run-to-run change.
The upper-level pattern will stay largely the same through early next week, with a cut-off low to the west and general troughiness to the east. Any small scale disturbances that ride down from Canada would bring similar chances for scattered showers and thunderstorms over the Upper Midwest. Temperatures will trend 5-10 degrees above normal, with some areas potentially seeing highs in the 80s Sunday- Tuesday. The best chance for that comes on Sunday, with nearly 50% of NBM members breaking the 80F mark across the southern half of Minnesota.
The cut-off low over the western CONUS will attempt to progress eastward by mid-week, which would likely be the general timeframe of our next shot of active weather.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/
Issued at 623 PM CDT Wed May 8 2024
Rain this afternoon has been tied to an upper low over eastern SoDak and an inverted surface trough up along the MN/SD border.
These features will slowly sag south and east through the night, which means precipitation is in all likelihood done for MPX terminals, so removed precip mention from all TAFs. Thursday morning, as the surface low moves across Iowa, numerous models show MVFR cigs developing to the north of the low that could swipe MSP, MKT, & RWF. Those MVFR cigs could come with a few sprinkles, but moisture on forecast soundings is pretty shallow, so little in the way of rainfall is expected. After the morning MVFR threat, skies will clear out through Thursday afternoon with 10-20 kt NNE winds.
KMSP...The HRRR continues to hint at a shower threat between 12z and 16z Thursday morning, though RAP forecast soundings show rather shallow moisture being in place during the morning, which should really limit the shower threat.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ FRI...Mainly VFR. Chance PM MVFR/-TSRA. Wind NW 20G35 kts.
SAT...VFR. Wind NW 10-15G20 kts.
SUN...VFR. Wind WSW 10-15G20 kts.
MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...None.
WI...None.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN 645 PM CDT Wed May 8 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- Scattered, pulse-y thunderstorms expected this afternoon and evening across southern Minnesota. Locally heavy rain and a few strong or severe storms are possible.
- Periodic shower and thunderstorm chances will continue through early next week.
- Temperatures will remain near or above normal.
DISCUSSION
Issued at 252 PM CDT Wed May 8 2024
Our stagnant mid/upper level low pattern will slide east tonight, setting up a nearly horizontal, positively-tilted trough axis along the Minnesota/Iowa/SoDak border region. Soundings show an inverted-V setup, with cold air above a warm and dry boundary layer. Surface temps have already eclipsed 70F in much of southern Minnesota, supporting a broad area of 500 J/kg SBCAPE embedded with pockets of 1000+ J/kg along the MN/SoDak border. Steep low-level lapse rates will be enough to create a broad area of showers/storms, however lack of wind shear should prevent any longer-lived supercell convection. In other words, we are expected storms to form and dissipate quickly, leading to isolated hail and strong downdraft winds. Given the slow movement of the occluded low, some storms could tap into the effective SRH and form brief landspouts or weak non-supercell tornadoes. The main threat will shift to locally heavy rains overnight, with the highest totals expected south of the MN/IA border.
Northeasterly flow behind the occluded front will advect in slightly cooler and drier air, leading to quiet weather tomorrow afternoon/night. An upper-level shortwave disturbance will then slide southeast through the Great Lakes region on Friday. Steeper lapse rates and patches of weak MUCAPE will likely lead to a broad area of scattered showers and thunderstorms across east-central Minnesota and western Wisconsin. The main forcing, and greatest QPF, looks to be trending slightly further east into Wisconsin per model (Euro and GFS) run-to-run change.
The upper-level pattern will stay largely the same through early next week, with a cut-off low to the west and general troughiness to the east. Any small scale disturbances that ride down from Canada would bring similar chances for scattered showers and thunderstorms over the Upper Midwest. Temperatures will trend 5-10 degrees above normal, with some areas potentially seeing highs in the 80s Sunday- Tuesday. The best chance for that comes on Sunday, with nearly 50% of NBM members breaking the 80F mark across the southern half of Minnesota.
The cut-off low over the western CONUS will attempt to progress eastward by mid-week, which would likely be the general timeframe of our next shot of active weather.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/
Issued at 623 PM CDT Wed May 8 2024
Rain this afternoon has been tied to an upper low over eastern SoDak and an inverted surface trough up along the MN/SD border.
These features will slowly sag south and east through the night, which means precipitation is in all likelihood done for MPX terminals, so removed precip mention from all TAFs. Thursday morning, as the surface low moves across Iowa, numerous models show MVFR cigs developing to the north of the low that could swipe MSP, MKT, & RWF. Those MVFR cigs could come with a few sprinkles, but moisture on forecast soundings is pretty shallow, so little in the way of rainfall is expected. After the morning MVFR threat, skies will clear out through Thursday afternoon with 10-20 kt NNE winds.
KMSP...The HRRR continues to hint at a shower threat between 12z and 16z Thursday morning, though RAP forecast soundings show rather shallow moisture being in place during the morning, which should really limit the shower threat.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ FRI...Mainly VFR. Chance PM MVFR/-TSRA. Wind NW 20G35 kts.
SAT...VFR. Wind NW 10-15G20 kts.
SUN...VFR. Wind WSW 10-15G20 kts.
MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...None.
WI...None.
| Stations | Dist | Age | Wind | Air Temp | Water Temp | Waves | inHg | DewPt |
| DULM5 - 9099064 - Duluth, MN | 85 mi | 56 min | NE 9.9G | 49°F | 49°F | 29.81 | 40°F |
toggle option: (graph/table)
| Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Temp | DewPt | RH | inHg |
| KJMR MORA MUNI,MN | 20 sm | 29 min | NE 07 | 10 sm | Clear | 63°F | 41°F | 45% | 29.82 |
Duluth, MN,
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