Sunrise 6:00 AM   Sunset 8:27 PM Moonrise 2:40 AM   Moonset 12:38 PM

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FXUS63 KMPX 021138 AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN 638 AM CDT Thu May 2 2024

KEY MESSAGES

- Widespread rain returns to the today. Most areas will see a quarter to half inch of rainfall, though amounts closer to an inch are possible across SE MN and W WI.

- Unsettled weather pattern brings additional rain chances this weekend and early next week.

DISCUSSION
Issued at 300 AM CDT Thu May 2 2024

Hopefully folks got a chance to get some fresh air during the mild and sunny Wednesday afternoon, as today's weather will take a full turn in the other direction. No major changes were made to the going forecast, as widespread rain is on track to arrive this morning, resulting in a cool, breezy, and soggy Thursday. We've knocked highs down into the low to mid 50s given the expected conditions. The 2 AM view from the KMPX 88D depicts scattered echoes across much of south central Minnesota and western Wisconsin. The majority of this early morning activity is not reaching the surface, given notable low- level dry air sampled on the 00z MPX RAOB. Latest ACARS data from MSP Airport reveals that the dry layer is still very much present over the TC metro, such that it will be another couple of hours before the atmosphere saturates and raindrops begin to reach the surface. Observations reflect this idea in west/southwest MN, as a few hundredths of QPF have been reported thus far. Regional radar depicts a well defined, expansive precipitation shield lifting to the north through Iowa at this hour. The shield of rain has developed ahead of an northward surging warm front, within a region of broad ascent east of an upper level trough. The combination of synoptic scale lift and moisture advection into the region will ultimately be the key players for rain to win out across much of the area through the morning and start of the afternoon. At the surface, low pressure is forecast to track from central Iowa towards western Wisconsin through the course of the day. This storm track will mean two things for the local forecast: First, thunderstorm chances will be on the lower side for much of the area, since we'll be on the "cooler" side of the storm system. We can't rule out isolated thunderstorms in far southern Minnesota and portions of western Wisconsin, given the potential for a couple hundred joules of MLCAPE and a plume of steeper lapse rates (7-7.5 C/km) forecast to slide through this afternoon. Second, the track of the low will mean that the heaviest rainfall will setup along and southeast of a line from Fairmont, MN - SE Twin Cities Metro - Barron, WI. In terms of rainfall amounts, most areas are forecast to observe between a quarter to half inch, with lower amounts in western Minnesota and the chance for higher amounts (~1.00"+) along and southeast of the line mentioned above (due to chance for thunderstorms in this area). Once the widespread rain ends, we'll likely have patchy fog and pockets of drizzle linger for a couple of hours given saturation in the lower levels captured on forecast soundings.

The upper-level system will lift into southern Canada Friday, which which will promote broad southwesterly flow into the Upper Midwest.
Though it will be breezy at times, the sunny skies and highs in the 60s to low 70s should make for a nice outdoor day. A quick moving shortwave will lift through the region early Saturday, which will bring scattered shower chances for the start of the weekend. This will not be the same sort of "widespread soaking rain" that is expected today (and that we've seen a few times lately!), rather a few hundredths to a tenth or so of QPF is expected for the first half of the day. Dry weather will return from Saturday afternoon through the end of the weekend, which will set the stage for great outdoor weather on Sunday, as highs climb back towards 70 degrees under mostly sunny skies.

Believe it or not, our recent weather rollercoaster takes yet another dip early next week, as more widespread rainfall is expected. An upper trough is forecast to become negatively tilted as it digs into the western CONUS Sunday into Monday. Large scale warm advection will increase across the Great Plains in response and it's likely that temperatures will surge into the mid, perhaps upper 70s locally on Monday afternoon. The warmth will precede the return of likely chances for rain and thunderstorms. The period of greatest potential for rain/stormy activity appears to be later Monday into early Tuesday morning, ahead of a cold front. While a plume of steep lapse rates & favorable dynamics will work together to produce the chance for thunderstorms, the amount of instability will be a key player in the overall potential for severe weather. Nonetheless, it's appearing likely that another round of soaking rain will move through the region early next week.

The forecast tends to vary a bit more in the extended period given differences in how models are resolving the progression of the upper- level low across the northern CONUS through the middle to end of next week. Given the uncertainty, slight chance to chance PoPs from the NBM seem reasonable for the middle to end of next week.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/
Issued at 627 AM CDT Thu May 2 2024

An area of rain is advancing northward across Minnesota and western Wisconsin this morning. The rain is dropping visibilities, but ceilings remain VFR. Based on current and upstream obs, decided to bump up ceilings throughout the day overall, despite guidance saying everything should be IFR later this morning. Still expecting ceilings to lower a bit through this morning and into the afternoon with lingering drizzle through much of the day. Winds will become southwesterly this evening with VFR conditions returning by the end of the period.

KMSP...As mentioned above, removed IFR conditions for late this morning/early this afternoon. Heaviest rain is expected now through 15z. Left out any thunder mention as it seems to be confined to far southern Minnesota. Southwesterly winds 5-10kts are expected from this evening through the end of the period.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ FRI...VFR. Wind W at 15G25kts.
SAT...MVFR/-RA. Wind NW at 10G15kts.
SUN...VFR. Wind S at 5-10kts.



MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...None.
WI...None.

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