Thursday, October21, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Astoria, OR

Version 3.4
NOTICE
3/30/2021 -- ANZ330 has been split into ANZ331 and ANZ332. Click EDIT in Marine Forecast and select your new zone.
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 7:36AMSunset 6:16PM Thursday October 21, 2021 2:38 PM PDT (21:38 UTC) Moonrise 6:01PMMoonset 7:42AM Illumination 99% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 16 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PZZ210 Columbia River Bar- 301 Am Pdt Thu Oct 21 2021
.small craft advisory in effect until 8 am pdt this morning...
.small craft advisory in effect from this afternoon through this evening...
In the main channel.. - general seas...around 10 ft, but easing to 8 ft by Thursday evening. Seas building to 10 to 12 ft late Thursday night. - first ebb...around 545 am Thursday. Seas to 12 ft with breakers possible. - second ebb...strong ebb around 6 pm Thursday. Seas to 12 ft with breakers likely. - third ebb...around 630 am Friday. Seas to 12 ft.
PZZ200 301 Am Pdt Thu Oct 21 2021
Synopsis for the southern washington and northern oregon coast.. An active pattern will continue for the next several days as deep low pressure systems move into the northeast pacific. The next strong system impacts the waters this morning. The strongest wind will be over the outer waters, however, a coastal jet will develop late Thursday afternoon for a brief period of solid gales affecting the inner waters. Another round of gale force wind gusts appear likely late Friday night through Saturday morning. A much deeper low pressure area is forecast to develop over the eastern pacific Saturday night and Sunday. There is the potential for wave heights in excess of 25 feet Sunday afternoon.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Astoria, OR
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location: 46.19, -123.85     debug


Area Discussion for - Portland, OR
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FXUS66 KPQR 211823 AAA AFDPQR

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Portland OR 1122 AM PDT Thu Oct 21 2021

Updated aviation section

SYNOPSIS. Expect a very active weather pattern to bring valley rain and high mountain snow every 12-24 hours through early to mid next week. Strong winds will be possible along the coast Sunday.

SHORT TERM. Today through Saturday . Water vapor satellite imagery over the past 12-24 hours shows one of the most impressive cyclogenesis events in recent history off the Pacific Northwest coast. WPC surface analysis places the main surface low pressure at 953mb near 136W and 47N when at this time yesterday it was near 1000mb. Models are in good agreement this low pressure will meander around itself for the next 6-12 hours before pushing northward this afternoon and filling. It should be noted there is a secondary surface low pressure apparent in satellite imagery to the southwest of the main low center that appears more distinct in satellite imagery than what most available model guidance would suggest. What little models have picked up on with regards to this feature suggests it will continue to rotate eastward around the main low center and weaken before moving northeastward towards Vancouver Island. Do not foresee this locally tightening the pressure gradient enough along our coast to result in an increased wind threat, but it will be worth monitoring nonetheless. GEFS and EPS data generally suggest wind gusts will peak in the 30-40 mph range along the coast this afternoon and evening despite the much stronger wind field lurking just offshore.

The main notable weather impact from this strong storm offshore will be a frontal rain band spreading eastward across the area this afternoon and evening. Some of the high resolution model guidance suggests a narrow, but intense frontal rain band will be embedded in the larger rain band. High resolution model guidance suggests this short burst of intense rain will hit the I5 corridor around 5-7 pm, which could certainly wreak havoc with the evening commute, particularly if it arrives on the earlier side of that timeframe.

As colder air aloft filters into the region tonight, expect precipitation to turn more showery and become quite scattered in nature. Models are in good agreement the post frontal wind field will back off considerably so few severe convective concerns exist. With that said, there could be a thunderstorm or two along the coast late tonight and Friday morning and a possibly a rumble or two of thunder east of I-5 Friday afternoon.

Model and ensemble guidance remains in good agreement the next storm system to impact the region is a shortwave trough currently over the Aleutian Islands. This system will race east-southeastward over the next 24-36 hours and result in a comparatively weak cyclogenesis event over the northeast Pacific. The resulting low pressure will move northeastward towards the Alaska Panhandle, but a trailing front will bring another shot of rain and breezy conditions to the coast Friday night into Saturday morning. Wind fields continue to look unimpressive along the coast so no wind headlines are anticipated. Showers behind the front should generally be on the decrease across the CWA Saturday afternoon and evening as height fields briefly build. /Neuman

LONG TERM. Saturday night through Wednesday . Model and ensemble guidance are beginning to converge on the idea that another unusually strong cyclogenesis event will occur late Saturday into early Sunday across the northeast Pacific . generally between 140W and 130W. However, there are some subtle differences between the ensemble systems on where the majority of the members suggest the low pressure will track and how deep it will bottom out. The GEFS is the furthest west with the majority of its members suggesting the low pressure will bottom out near 135W before quickly filling, while the CMCE solutions generally suggest this will occur closer to 130W. Meanwhile the EPS solutions are a bit farther north than the CMCE solutions, but also a notch stronger on average with the low pressure. In addition, there remain a few members in each of these ensemble systems that suggest the low pressure will track inside 130W and could result in a bigger wind threat for at least our coastal locations and perhaps (a very low probability that appears well less than 10%) farther inland.

As an aside, almost all scenarios suggested by the various ensemble systems suggest the main low pressure will track closer to the region and certainly be on par strength wise, if not considerably stronger than the low pressure responsible for the Great Coastal Gale in 2007. However, that simple comparison does not tell the whole story. For example, the pressure gradients in the Great Coastal Gale of 2007 were substantially larger up and down the Pacific Northwest coast than what is currently being modeled. This is primarily due to the surface high pressure sitting over California and the Great Basin being ~15-20mb stronger in 2007 than what is modeled with this upcoming event. In general, it appears we will stand a better chance for high wind headlines along the coast Sunday than the events preceding it, but even then 60 mph gusts certainly are far from guaranteed and the more impactful 70-80 mph scenario still appears quite unlikely (~10% or less).

Finally, the EPS's mean low level wind field and temperature profile suggest an environment remarkably similar to Oct 14th 2016 when we had several low topped supercells move onto the Pacific Northwest coast. However, the GEFS's mean low level wind field is not quite as impressive so the large uncertainty in the finer details of the track and strength of the Sunday low pressure system will have a large impact on whether or not this threat is realized.

In general, models generally suggest the Sunday low pressure system should weaken over the northeast Pacific, most likely near the southwest British Columbia coast Sunday night into Monday. Some ensemble guidance suggests yet another surface low pressure, likely considerably weaker than Sunday's low pressure system, will develop as it tracks eastward towards the region Monday/Tuesday. However, many ensemble members either do not develop it or keep it well north and west of the region. As a result, confidence in details remains low for Monday and Tuesday except that the weather pattern looks to remain active enough that additional rounds of beneficial rains appear very likely.

Models and their ensembles loosely agree 500mb heights will build over the West Coast towards the middle of next week. However, the odds of us drying out entirely appears quite unlikely as most available guidance suggests a weak to moderate west-to-east oriented atmospheric river will spread eastward into the area or lift northward across the area on Wednesday. /Neuman

AVIATION. 18Z TAFS: No widespread changes for the 18Z TAF package. Main addition was to add in a short tempo period this afternoon for many locations to fall to the lower end of MVFR cigs in addition to IFR vsbys with the primary frontal passage. Timing of rain, moderate at times, is still expected to be arriving early this afternoon along the coast and a few hours later inland. Heaviest rain and strongest southerly wind is located about 60 miles offshore as of 18Z and will be arriving with the front just ahead of 00Z at the coast and shortly after 00Z inland. Strongest gusts will be 30-35 kt for KONP and 25 kt for KAST as a coastal jet develops. Most gusty wind inland right now is from the easterly Gorge outflow affecting KTTD and KPDX. The outflow should end when the front arrives, otherwise don't expect much significant wind inland with this specific frontal passage. Conditions behind the front appear to bring MVFR cigs with trailing showers continuing through most of the remaining TAF period.

For detailed regional Pac NW aviation weather information, go online to: https://weather.gov/zse

KPDX AND APPROACHES . Main impact will with the cold front crossing during the afternoon arrivals centered around 00Z. Expect a fairly rapid drop in flight conditions with IFR cigs under the primary rain band from 00-02Z. Cascades will likely remain obscured for much of the 12 hours following. /JBonk

MARINE. Water vapor satellite imagery shows a low pressure area out near 45N 136W exhibiting explosive development. Gale force wind gusts have been noted at buoy 46089 as of 08Z. The latest model guidance suggests 40-45 kt gusts over the outer waters by 12Z and continuing into early afternoon. Some models continue to advertise 50-55 kt gusts along the frontal boundary over the outer waters between 12Z and 18Z. Will continue with the current advisories and gale warnings. High resolution models are also showing a coastal jet developing Thursday afternoon mainly focused around 10 nm offshore. It will likely only last a few hours as the front nears the coast, however, gusts around 45 kts seem plausible.

Wind speeds diminish Thu evening, but will remain in solid Small Craft Advisory levels. Guidance indicates wind speeds/gusts finally fall below 20 kt late Thu night. Another round of gales looks probable Fri night, with gusts up to 40 kt beyond 10 nm. This will be a fast-moving system, with wind speeds falling below Small Craft Advisory thresholds by late Sat morning. A more significant system is expected Sunday. However, there remain significant model differences, especially with the ultimate track of this mega-low. A majority of the EPS ensemble members indicate a 945-950 mb low pres center near 48N 132W at 00Z Mon. There are a couple members showing sub-940 mb low centers. The GEFS is similar, but the low is forecast to be much more southwest of the primary EPS cluster. This leads to plenty of uncertainty. For now have gone with high-end gale force wind gusts over the waters Sun, but would not be surprised if storm force gusts occurred. The active pattern continues into the first half of next week, with additional rounds of gales likely.

Seas have eased since Wed evening and are much closer to model and spectral guidance. As of 09Z buoy 46089 was at 15 ft, 46050 at 11 ft and Astoria Canyon at 11 ft. These are all very close to forecast values. Seas will build to the upper teens over the outer waters by late morning, possibly briefly reaching 20 ft. Wave heights then settle into the low to mid teens early Thu evening, but start to ramp up again Thu night. The WCwave10 guidance develops a core of 40 ft seas out near 43N 134W Sun afternoon. The EC model shows a peak close to 50 ft. Have indicated 20-25 ft seas Sun, but would not be surprised if wave heights exceeded 25 ft. Weishaar

PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. OR . None. WA . None. PZ . Gale Warning until 8 PM PDT this evening for coastal waters from Cape Shoalwater WA to Florence OR from 10 to 60 nm.

Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM PDT this morning for coastal waters from Cape Shoalwater WA to Florence OR out 10 nm.

Gale Warning from 9 AM this morning to 5 PM PDT this afternoon for coastal waters from Cape Shoalwater WA to Florence OR out 10 nm.

Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM PDT this morning for Columbia River Bar.

Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to 7 PM PDT this evening for Columbia River Bar.




Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
ASTO3 - 9439040 - Astoria, OR 5 mi51 min 61°F 57°F1003.6 hPa
46243 - Clatsop Spit, OR - 162 15 mi43 min 55°F13 ft
TOKW1 - 9440910 - Toke Point, WA 36 mi51 min 62°F 55°F1004.3 hPa
46248 - Astoria Canyon, OR (179) 42 mi43 min 57°F15 ft
TLBO3 - 9437540 - Garibaldi, Tillamook Bay, OR 44 mi51 min 55°F1006.2 hPa
LOPW1 - 9440422 - Longview, WA 48 mi51 min 58°F1005.9 hPa

Wind History for Astoria, OR
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Astoria, Astoria Regional Airport, OR3 mi44 minSSE 89.00 miLight Rain63°F47°F56%1005 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KAST

Wind History from AST (wind in knots)
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2 days agoW4W6NW3S30SE4E40SE3SE3SE3SE5SE6E6SE5SE5E6SE5E6E7E55E8SE10

Tide / Current Tables for Astoria (Youngs Bay), Columbia River, Oregon
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Astoria (Youngs Bay)
Click for Map
Thu -- 02:25 AM PDT     7.62 feet High Tide
Thu -- 07:41 AM PDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 08:15 AM PDT     1.45 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 08:41 AM PDT     Moonset
Thu -- 02:13 PM PDT     8.69 feet High Tide
Thu -- 06:17 PM PDT     Sunset
Thu -- 07:00 PM PDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 08:56 PM PDT     -0.31 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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Tide / Current Tables for Chinook, Baker Bay, Columbia River, Washington
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Chinook
Click for Map
Thu -- 02:08 AM PDT     7.14 feet High Tide
Thu -- 07:37 AM PDT     1.52 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 07:41 AM PDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 08:42 AM PDT     Moonset
Thu -- 01:56 PM PDT     8.16 feet High Tide
Thu -- 06:18 PM PDT     Sunset
Thu -- 07:01 PM PDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 08:18 PM PDT     -0.46 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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NOTE: This section has been updated as of 1/26/2021. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may use the EDIT function to update your location.
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