Thursday, October21, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Munising, MI

Version 3.4
NOTICE
3/30/2021 -- ANZ330 has been split into ANZ331 and ANZ332. Click EDIT in Marine Forecast and select your new zone.
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 8:14AMSunset 6:53PM Thursday October 21, 2021 4:05 PM EDT (20:05 UTC) Moonrise 6:30PMMoonset 8:06AM Illumination 99% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 16 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LSZ249 728 pm edt Fri oct 1 2021 a marine weather statement has been issued for the following areas... Lake superior east of a line from manitou island to marquette mi and west of a line from grand marais mi to the us/canadian border beyond 5nm from shore... Marquette to munising mi... Munising to grand marais mi... At 727 pm edt, doppler radar indicated strong Thunderstorms, capable of producing winds to around 30 knots. These Thunderstorms were located along a line extending from 24 nm east of stannard rock to 20 nm north of miners castle to 7 nm northwest of grand island, moving east at 30 knots. Precautionary/preparedness actions... Mariners can expect gusty winds to around 30 knots, locally higher waves, and lightning strikes. Boaters should seek safe harbor immediately until these storms pass. && lat...lon 4706 8616 4682 8616 4658 8629 4663 8683 4683 8673 4709 8671
LSZ249 Expires:202110020015;;025809 FZUS73 KMQT 012328 MWSMQT Marine Weather Statement National Weather Service Marquette MI 728 PM EDT Fri Oct 1 2021 LSZ249-250-266-020015-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Munising, MI
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location: 46.38, -86.71     debug


Area Discussion for - Marquette, MI
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FXUS63 KMQT 211944 AFDMQT

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Marquette MI 344 PM EDT Thu Oct 21 2021

SHORT TERM. (Today and tonight) Issued at 323 AM EDT THU OCT 21 2021

GOES Water vapor imagery and IR imagery show a closed low near south- central Wisconsin. Precip shield and area of deeper moisture extends from the low over Lake Superior and across parts of Lower Michigan. Across Upper Michigan's south-central and Lake Michigan, a dry slot on the 10.7 CH is pretty clear. Current radar imagery shows this area with some very spotty returns that likely aren't reaching the ground. Elsewhere, a line of light to moderate rainfall extends from Gogebic County through the north-central and southern Lake Superior. Just to the north, dry air has kept showers out of the Keweenaw. To the north of the baroclinic zone, an abundance of dry air is present. RAP analysis suggests 850mb temps just north of the lake, including over Lake Nipigon, to be around -3 to -8C. Within this colder airmass, lake effect showers can be picked out from the GOES Ch-10 Water Vapor and IR imagery downstream of Lake Nipigon.

As the low continues progressing eastward across Lake Michigan this morning, rain showers will end from west to east. From there, the drier and colder air will filter into the region. Latest guidance suggests 850mb temps will cool to around -3 to -5C by early afternoon over the west half and Lake Superior. Further cooling is expected, with 850mb temps potentially ticking down a few more degrees to around -4C to -6C overnight. With the lake running around +12C, sufficient instability and a dearth of directional shear will support lake effect showers. Guidance is suggesting a Nipigon connector setting up tonight. With lake effect ongoing up there, this solution seems likely. Additional parameters such as low level convergence maxes support a dominate band setting up just east of Marquette and negative ThetaE lapse rates support showers moving well inland, with the connection potentially preconditioning the environment across Lake Michigan. Because of that I continued previous forecasts of trending pops up this afternoon and tonight across Marquette/Alger southward toward Lake Michigan. Ptype looks primarily rain, but given the cooling column, some snow may mix in by early morning in parts of Marquette County. Given the warm ground, snow accumulations are not expected.

Temperatures overnight have largely bottomed out in the 40s. As the low scoots through, some additional cooling may be possible in the next couple hours. Highs today aren't expected to climb much. Widespread 40s are expected today, with the colder low to mid 40s across in the interior west half. Tonight, lows could be tricky given the presence of cloud cover off Lake Superior. Overall though, with the colder airmass overhead, its reasonable for lows to fall into the 30s with some areas dipping into the 20s away from the lakeshores in the west half.

LONG TERM. (Friday night through Thursday) Issued at 337 PM EDT THU OCT 21 2021

Upper low over eastern Ontario will be the primary weather player Friday night into early Sunday before the low opens up and shears eastward. Several shortwaves rotating around the low will enhance the lake effect process Friday night into Saturday and again Saturday night. As temperatures cool each evening lake effect rain showers will transition to some light snow showers or rain/snow mix for higher terrain areas across the central U.P. No snow accumulations are expected.

With 85H temperatures between -4C and -6C temperatures will remain cool . 40s during the day . but not out of the ordinary for this time of year.

Shortwave moving through the mid-Mississippi Valley will spin up a surface low over the Lower Lakes on Monday. Most of the precipitation from that should remain south of the U.P.

Strong warm advection ahead of upper trough moving out of the western U.S. will yield milder days for Tuesday into Wednesday before a cold front with a band of showers crosses the area on Wednesday. Temperatures will cool back to normal behind the front for late in he week.

AVIATION. (For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon) Issued at 139 PM EDT THU OCT 21 2021

With a colder air mass settling into the Upper Great Lakes, lake effect stratocu will continue to stream off Lake Superior under n to nw winds. Some lake effect -shra are also expected, particularly into n central Upper MI. These -shra will affect SAW at times thru this evening, but no vis reduction blo VFR is currently anticipated. Winds should then back slightly, resulting in -shra passing by to the ne and e of the terminal late tonight thru Fri morning. Otherwise, MVFR cigs are likely to prevail at IWD/CMX/SAW thru this fcst period. Cigs may lift above 3000ft at times, especially at CMX.

MARINE. (For the 4 AM Lake Superior forecast issuance) Issued at 323 AM EDT THU OCT 21 2021

As a low pushes east across Lake Michigan this morning, expect northeast winds to become north to northwest. Stronger winds this morning should subside some in the far west this morning. As a slug of colder air moves over the lake this afternoon, expect an increase in northerly winds mainly across the eastern half to around 25 to 30 knots. Overnight Thursday, winds are expected to fall to 20 knots or less and remain there through at least Sunday. From there, high pressure will build across Ontario as another low moves into the Ohio River Valley. Expecting easterly winds to increase with the increasing pressure gradient to 20 to 25 knots late Sunday through Monday.

MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. Upper Michigan . None. Lake Superior . None. Lake Michigan . None.

SHORT TERM . JP LONG TERM . MZ AVIATION . Rolfson MARINE . JP


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
KP53 4 mi70 min N 17G28 45°F 1014.1 hPa37°F
MCGM4 - 9099018 - Marquette C.G., MI 37 mi48 min NNW 8G18 43°F 1013.7 hPa32°F
GR4 - Grand Marais, MI 44 mi26 min N 24G29 41°F 1014.2 hPa
GRIM4 44 mi26 min N 11G16 44°F 1015 hPa38°F
FPTM4 - Fairport, MI 53 mi26 min N 9.9G21 44°F

Wind History for Marquette C.G., MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Munising - Munising Lakeshore Observation, MI4 mi70 minN 17 G 28 mi45°F37°F74%1014.1 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KP53

Wind History from P53 (wind in knots)
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Tide / Current Tables for
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NOTE: This section has been updated as of 1/26/2021. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may use the EDIT function to update your location.
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