Sunrise 5:24 AM   Sunset 8:04 PM Moonrise 4:14 AM   Moonset 5:21 PM

  Print   HELP   Reset   Save   Recall

FXUS66 KOTX 051844 AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Spokane WA 1144 AM PDT Sun May 5 2024

SYNOPSIS
Rain will expand today across the PacNW today and tonight. As the low slides east, conditions will remain cool and showery and breezy. Warmer and drier weather will arrive late next week. Next weekend has the potential to deliver our warmest temperatures of the spring so far.

DISCUSSION

A forecast update has just been issued to limit the westward extent of rain this afternoon and evening. Radar trends and morning model runs suggest the band of rain will move about as far west as Quincy, Mansfield and Republic around 3PM before changing course and trekking east this evening and overnight. /GKoch

AVIATION
18Z TAFS: The rain band extending from Sandpoint to Spokane to Tri Cities will pivot to the west this afternoon. That should bring several hours of ceiling and visibility improvements to Spokane, Coeur d'Alene, Pullman and Sandpoint. Radar trends and 12z model runs limit the westward progress to about Moses Lake and Grand Coulee. With drier downslope west winds in central WA, confidence is high that Wenatchee, Chelan, and Omak will remain VFR with little to no precipitation. Moses Lake and Ephrata will get some light rain, but may experience enough drying from the west to keep prevailing VFR until the rain band moves eastward this evening.
Spokane, Coeur d'Alene, Pullman, and Lewiston can expect ceilings to lower as the band returns in the 00z-05z time frame before it moves east and gusty winds help to break up low ceilings after 06z. /GKoch

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Confidence in ceilings and visibility within the band of rain is low. We are dealing with an axis of mid and low level moisture convergence favoring localized ceiling reductions to 1500 ft or less, but it is a relatively narrow band with a good deal of dry being advected from the west. With a good deal of variability in the MOS and HRRR guidance, frequent amendments are anticipated to keep up with the changing conditions. /GKoch

-----------------------

Confidence descriptors: Low - Less than a 30 percent chance Moderate - 30 to 70 percent chance High - Greater than a 70 percent chance

For additional probabilistic information for NWS Spokane airports, please refer to the Aviation Dashboard on our webpage: https:// www.weather.gov/otx/avndashboard

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Spokane 50 40 56 36 59 38 / 90 100 60 20 10 0 Coeur d'Alene 50 40 53 36 54 38 / 80 90 70 40 30 10 Pullman 44 38 52 34 52 36 / 70 100 60 40 20 10 Lewiston 54 44 60 41 60 41 / 50 100 60 40 30 10 Colville 51 39 59 33 60 35 / 100 100 60 40 20 0 Sandpoint 52 40 52 36 53 39 / 100 100 80 50 50 10 Kellogg 49 39 48 36 49 38 / 70 100 90 60 60 20 Moses Lake 57 38 63 39 64 37 / 70 30 20 0 0 0 Wenatchee 59 45 59 41 59 40 / 30 20 20 0 0 0 Omak 62 45 65 37 64 38 / 60 40 20 10 0 0

OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ID...None.
WA...None.

Full Color Weather Map

Link to Loop


Other links: GEOS-West     Contential US     Full GOES-East

Spokane, WA,