Sunrise 5:42 AM   Sunset 8:15 PM Moonrise 2:33 AM   Moonset 12:34 PM

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PZZ135 Puget Sound And Hood Canal- 238 Am Pdt Thu May 2 2024
Today - N wind 5 to 15 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less. Tonight - N wind 5 to 15 kt becoming S after midnight. Wind waves 2 ft or less. Fri - S wind to 10 kt rising to 5 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Wind waves 2 ft or less. Fri night - SW wind 10 to 20 kt becoming S to 10 kt after midnight. Wind waves 1 to 3 ft subsiding to 1 ft or less after midnight. Sat - W wind 5 to 15 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less. Sat night - S wind 5 to 15 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less. Sun - S wind 10 to 20 kt becoming 5 to 15 kt. Wind waves 1 to 3 ft. Mon - SW wind 5 to 15 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less.

PZZ100 238 Am Pdt Thu May 2 2024
Synopsis for the northern and central washington coastal and inland waters - A low pressure system offshore will continue to move southeast and push into oregon Thursday morning. Weak high pressure will then rebuild over the waters before the next system moves into the area waters Friday into Saturday. Another system will move across the area waters late in the weekend into early next week.

FXUS66 KPQR 020955 AFDPQR

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Portland OR 255 AM PDT Thu May 2 2024

SYNOPSIS
Another system will bring rain and Cascade snow (above 4000 ft) this morning. Expect conditions to dry with some clearing skies by this afternoon. Heavier rain arrives Friday into Saturday, but we are not expecting any widespread hydrological concerns at this time. Cool, wet, unsettled weather likely continues through the middle of next week.

SHORT TERM
Thursday through Saturday...Mesoanalysis as of 245 AM PDT depicts a 1013 mb low pressure system centered off the north Oregon coast. This low is currently progressing southeast, bringing a band of light to moderate rainfall across northwest Oregon and southwest Washington. Based on webcams, snow is beginning to fall in the Cascades. The very marginal Winter Weather Advisory remains in effect for the North Oregon Cascades, and the Marion, Linn, and Lane County Cascades through 11 AM PDT today. Expect around 2-6 inches of snow this morning above 4000-4500 feet, with heavier snow above 5000-5500 feet.

For everyone else, the heaviest rain amounts this morning will be south of a line extending from Astoria-Portland-Hood River.
Locations such as the central Oregon coast, central Oregon Coast Range, and central/south Willamette Valley are forecast to receive an additional 0.25-0.40 inch of QPF this morning. Along and north of the Astoria-Portland-Hood River line, precip amounts will generally be less than two tenths of an inch. The bulk of the precipitation will end no later than mid-morning today (8-10 AM) as this system quickly exits and weakens to the southeast. Expect predominately dry conditions by this afternoon with a bit of sunshine as transient high pressure builds aloft.
This will allow today's afternoon high temps to climb into the 60s for most inland locations.

The more active weather arrives Friday afternoon as a much deeper trough drops out of the Gulf of Alaska and sends a stronger front across the area Friday into early Saturday.
Expect heavier rainfall to accompany this system as IVT values briefly max out around 250-400 kg/ms Friday evening, with precipitable water values around 1 inch running two standard deviations above normal by early May standards. There have been minimal changes to the QPF forecast, with 1-1.5 inches for the interior lowlands, and 1.5-2 inches for the coast and mountains from late Friday morning to Saturday afternoon. Winter weather impacts are not expected for the Cascade passes on Friday as snow levels will be rising above 7000 feet.

Fortunately, the system looks to move through rather quickly with rain tapering off to showers by Saturday evening as the low dives south towards the OR/CA border. Snow levels will drop back down to 3500-4500 feet by late Saturday morning, returning snow to the Cascade passes. The latest NBM suggests a 40-60% chance of 6 inches of snowfall or greater in a 24 hr period ending 5 AM Sunday. Another Winter Weather Advisory is starting to look more likely for Saturday.

Despite the impressive QPF amounts for this time of year, the fast progression of this system should help limit hydro concerns across the area. We could see a slight uptick in river levels, however, HEFS probabilistic guidance still keeps the chance of reaching action stage below 5-10% on all area rivers. That said, the system will still bear watching into the weekend given that area reservoirs are close to full and snow levels will be rising above 6500-7000 feet on Friday. If nothing else, we could certainly see some local ponding of water in prone areas from late Friday into early Saturday. -Alviz/CB

LONG TERM
Saturday night to Wednesday...Expect an active, cool, and showery pattern to persist into the middle of next week as WPC ensemble clusters continue to show general agreement on some semblance of upper level troughing remaining over the Pacific Northwest through Wednesday. Do not see any signals for particularly notable QPF in any one period beyond Saturday, but area rivers will likely continue to run high for this time of year as episodic bouts of rain continue across the region.
Temperatures will continue to run a bit below normal, with daytime highs struggling to get out of the 50s through Wednesday. Will note that clusters do start to show a high pressure ridge building over the NE Pacific on Wednesday. If this ridge ends up moving eastward, then we could potentially see a pattern shift towards drier and warmer weather by late next week. -Alviz/CB

AVIATION
Surface low moving to the central coast, should make landfall by 12Z Thu. Light rain across the area with a mix of VFR to IFR/LIFR conditions. IFR/LIFR tends to be on the central Oregon coast near the low, and inland towards the coast range where upslope winds tend to create lower cigs.

Around 14z Thu, the low pushes through, and ceilings will slowly improve back to VFR over the following few hours. Guidance shows a north to south progression of improving conditions. Winds will be fairly light at almost all terminals throughout the TAF period, with the exception of KONP, which could see some southerly gusts up to 20kt accompanying the frontal passage by 12Z Thu. Effects from the next front starts towards the end of the TAF period, bringing more rain and lowered cigs.

Notes: The ASOS at KTTD is only available via the dial in option.
There is no estimated time of full repair and restoration for this location.

PDX AND APPROACHES...A mix of VFR and MVFR expected over trough about 12-14Z per HRRR guidance, then trending toward VFR through 12Z Fri. However depending how much clearing occurs, low stratus or fog may form in the area. HRRR showing around 10% chance for IFR conditions after 09Z Fri. /mh

MARINE
Surface low over the central coastal waters will continue to slide southeast and make landfall by sunrise. South to southeast winds gusting 20-25 kt south of about Lincoln City with easterly winds to the north, but weaker. The low will continue to weaken today as will winds. High pressure builds offshore resulting in northerly wind developing later in the day.

The next impactful event arrives early Friday. This low pressure system and associated front appear to be much more robust, so have issued a Small Craft Advisory for the outer zones, PZZZ 271,272,273, from Friday morning through early evening with gusts 20 to 30 kt. Lower forecast confidence for the inner zones with a 20-50 percent chance for gusts above 21 kt. Will see which way models trend to decide on issuing an advisory or not.

Seas starting out around 4 ft this morning but looks to remain below 10 ft through the weekend and early next week. /mh

PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OR...Winter Weather Advisory until 11 AM PDT this morning for ORZ126>128.

WA...None.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM PDT early this morning for PZZ271-272.

Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM to 8 PM PDT Friday for PZZ271>273.

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Tacoma
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Thu -- 01:20 AM PDT     12.01 feet High Tide
Thu -- 03:39 AM PDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 05:50 AM PDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 07:35 AM PDT     6.26 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 11:49 AM PDT     8.24 feet High Tide
Thu -- 01:36 PM PDT     Moonset
Thu -- 06:41 PM PDT     0.85 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 08:23 PM PDT     Sunset
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Tacoma, Commencement Bay, Washington, Tide feet

Steilacoom
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Thu -- 01:50 AM PDT     13.86 feet High Tide
Thu -- 03:40 AM PDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 05:51 AM PDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 08:12 AM PDT     6.50 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 12:19 PM PDT     9.51 feet High Tide
Thu -- 01:37 PM PDT     Moonset
Thu -- 07:18 PM PDT     0.88 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 08:23 PM PDT     Sunset
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Steilacoom, Washington, Tide feet

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