Sunday, January16, 2022
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Marine Weather and Tides
Chatham, MI

Version 3.4
NOTICE
3/30/2021 -- ANZ330 has been split into ANZ331 and ANZ332. Click EDIT in Marine Forecast and select your new zone.
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 8:26AMSunset 5:32PM Sunday January 16, 2022 5:16 AM EST (10:16 UTC) Moonrise 4:03PMMoonset 7:54AM Illumination 98% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 14 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LSZ249 Expires:202111020415;;659480 fzus73 kmqt 020313 mwsmqt marine weather statement national weather service marquette mi 1113 pm edt Mon nov 1 2021 lsz248>250-265-266-020415- 1113 pm edt Mon nov 1 2021 the areas affected include... Huron islands to marquette mi... Lake superior east of a line from manitou island to marquette mi and west of a line from grand marais mi to the us/canadian border beyond 5nm from shore... Lake superior west of line from manitou island to marquette mi beyond 5nm from shore... Marquette to munising mi... Munising to grand marais mi... At 1110 pm edt, doppler radar indicated multiple clusters of showers, capable of producing waterspouts. These showers are moving southeast at 15 to 20 knots. Lat...lon 4660 8621 4653 8642 4639 8663 4640 8673 4643 8677 4641 8682 4643 8695 4648 8702 4646 8717 4648 8734 4702 8795 4742 8730 4684 8607
LSZ249


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Chatham, MI
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location: 46.43, -86.84     debug


Area Discussion for - Marquette, MI
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FXUS63 KMQT 160849 AFDMQT

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Marquette MI 349 AM EST Sun Jan 16 2022

SHORT TERM. (Today and tonight) Issued at 348 AM EST SUN JAN 16 2022 Several disturbances across the CONUS are comprising the synoptic setup at this time. To the south, a deep closed low currently rotating over Alabama is advecting moisture into the Carolinas and Tennessee Valley while high pressure influences the northeast U.S. and Great Lakes Region. Closer to home, that high pressure will quickly be overshadowed by a shortwave and associated cold front that are currently making their way into Minnesota.

Current regional radar mosaic is showing light returns in the Duluth area, which is on track with GEPS and GEFS. Best isentropic ascent is progged to move through the forecast area in the Sun 12Z to 21Z time frame. But, with a lack of moisture, snow amounts will not be that impressive, generally in the 1 to 2 inch range at most. And, LES across the eastern counties in the SW flow off of Lake MI ahead of the disturbance has been minimal.

Best chances for any quick snow accumulations will most likely be across the NW LES belts tonight when the winds veer from the southwest to northwest. And, temperatures will continue to trend back to normal with highs generally in the teens and low 20s today. The bitter cold wind chills will also subside tonight with forecasted temperatures in the teens.

LONG TERM. (Monday through Saturday) Issued at 348 AM EST SUN JAN 16 2022

Ensemble means suggest the longterm period will remain near normal through the middle of the week, with a colder shot of arctic air progged for the second half of the week. There will be ridging off the West Coast to start the period with a shrtwv dropping south through the Northern Plains that will join with a stronger low pressure system progged to lift north from the SE late Sunday into Monday. These systems will move off the East Coast on Tuesday as troffing remains over the Great Lakes region. By the second half of the week, upstream ridging off the West Coast will build, driving a deeper trof downstream with NW flow bringing colder, arctic air across the Great Lakes by Wednesday. Aside from lake-effect snow, the only chance of more widespread pcpn this period will be Tuesday night into Wednesday as a wave embedded in the NW flow crosses the UP ahead of the arctic air.

Monday starts off with NW wind LES as 850mb temps are around -12 to - 14C. This LES will look to continue into Monday night, before a sfc ridge of high pressure approaches early Tuesday morning, bringing an end to the snow. Temperatures on Monday will be near normal with highs in the low to mid 20s, starting to fall in the afternoon as colder air moves in, and lows Monday night in the single digits. Accums at this point don't look too impressive, with instability near the 13 degree threshold and saturation and inversions around around 4kft.

That high pressure system shifts east on Tuesday as the next embedded wave in NW flow brings another chance of widespread snow Tuesday evening into Wednesday. Model spread is decreasing for the passing sfc low Tuesday night across the UP, with GEM, EC, and NAM all in good agreement. The exact track of this low is still uncertain as well with some lake-enhancement potential off either lake, otherwise the QPF looks on the modest side around 0.25in or less. Models do hint at the potential for a decent convergent band developing off Lake Michigan across the east, so something to monitor.

Cold, arctic air will move in behind this exiting low pressure system as an arctic high pressure system moves in across the Central Plains. LES will remain possible in the NW wind snow belts Wednesday through Thursday afternoon, but with 850mb temps near -25C not expecting significant accums as the DGZ falls to the sfc. Look for temps to fall through the day into the single digits on Wednesday and remain there through Thursday. Brief shrtwv ridging may bring some relief and SW flow Friday, but ensemble means suggest this will be short-lived as another shot of colder air with NW flow moves in for the second half of the weekend into next week.

AVIATION. (For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night) Issued at 1042 PM EST SAT JAN 15 2022

Outside of some tweaks to this TAF issuance, forecast remains on track for SN that will develop on Sunday, as previously advertised to impact all three terminals. Winds have already begun to pick up across portions of Upper Michigan and this trend will continue through the night, with LLWS eventually developing. MVFR to IFR conditions are eventually expected, with KIWD and KCMX looking to hold onto the more pessimistic conditions a bit longer than KSAW toward the end of this TAF period. SW winds initially will become increasingly Wrly late Sunday.

MARINE. (For the 4 AM Lake Superior forecast issuance) Issued at 348 AM EST SUN JAN 16 2022

Trough moving over the lake this morning will bring SW gales to 45 knots across the west and just a few gale force gusts to 35 knots across the east. Northwest winds will take over tonight behind a cold front with gusts to around 30 knots. Conditions improve on Tuesday as high pressure moves overhead; however, an arctic cold front Tuesday night will likely bring another round of NW gales through Wednesday morning. Heavy freezing spray will also be likely. This cold air will remain over the lake with NW winds of 20 to 30 knots expected through Thursday night.

MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. Upper Michigan . None. Lake Superior . Gale Warning until 1 PM EST /noon CST/ this afternoon for LSZ162- 240>244-263-264.

Lake Michigan . None.

SHORT TERM . TDUD LONG TERM . JAW AVIATION . lg MARINE . JAW


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
KP53 10 mi80 min S 13G21 10°F 1018.1 hPa3°F
MCGM4 - 9099018 - Marquette C.G., MI 30 mi58 min SSW 8.9G16 10°F 1014.3 hPa2°F
GRIM4 36 mi26 min 16°F 1013.2 hPa8°F
GR4 - Grand Marais, MI 49 mi36 min SW 15G21 13°F 1016.6 hPa
BIGM4 - Big Bay, MI 54 mi36 min SSW 7G9.9 16°F 1010.8 hPa

Wind History for Marquette C.G., MI
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Last 24 hrS9
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NE6
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N12
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N5
G13
N9
G17
N7
G11
NE5
G16
NE9
G17

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Munising - Munising Lakeshore Observation, MI10 mi20 minS 9 mi10°F3°F73%1017.2 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KP53

Wind History from P53 (wind in knots)
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Last 24 hr3SW4SW3S5S5S5S3S6S5S6S7S7S5S4S5S7S7S6S6
G15
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S7S9
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G21
S9
1 day agoNE15
G22
NE17E8E8E8E8E8E30NE8NE6E7E3NE303SW4S30SW44S403
2 days agoS6S8S6S8S7SW7SW7SW63N11
G20
N19N15
G25
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G25
N15
G27
N17N16
G23
N14
G25
N13N16NE20
G25
NE18NE19--N19

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NOTE: This section has been updated as of 1/26/2021. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may use the EDIT function to update your location.
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