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FXUS61 KCAR 050418 AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 1218 AM EDT Sun May 5 2024

SYNOPSIS
High pressure will slowly exit to the east through Sunday. A cold front approaches Sunday night, then crosses the area Monday and Monday evening. Weak high pressure builds in late Monday night through Tuesday night. A frontal boundary stalls out to the south with waves of low pressure riding along it Wednesday and Thursday.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/
12:18AM Update...No major changes with the ongoing forecast.
Made some minor tweaks with sky conditions based on the latest trends in the satellite data using the Nighttime Microphysics scheme. Got a mix of stratocu over land with high clouds then over the waters there is some fog which is confirmed with buoy observations... As the ridge moves east tonight expecting a weak return flow that will probably allow for some patchy fog across the Downeast coast inland potentially to the southern stretches of the Central Highlands. Minor tweaks to the trends in T/Td based on the current obs.

Previous Discussion...
By Sunday, the upper level ridge will start to shift E as the stronger trof starts to push across the Great Lakes. Model guidance shows a, area of shortwave energy moving along the upper level trof, approaching the region by Sunday afternoon.
Clouds and S winds will increase ahead of the system with temps starting to decrease making for a cooling, breezy afternoon. By the evening, QPF models show rain will progress from W to E with a chance of rain moving into the eastern border by sunset.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
A northern stream shortwave crosses the area Sunday night. This coupled with moderate, but deep, isentropic lift, should produce a round of light to moderate rain across the region. This should transit the area from NW to SE with the passage of the upper level shortwave. The high resolution guidance seems to have a good handle on this, so followed this for timing/pops.
Lows Sunday night should be a few degrees above normal, ranging mainly from around 40 to the mid 40s.

A northern stream trough builds to the north Monday through Tuesday. There could be some isolated to scattered showers Monday with the initial shortwave as the trough moves across, with the best chance across the North. Dry air builds in at the low to mid levels Monday night and Tuesday, so it should be dry then. Highs on Monday should be around 5-10 degrees above normal, ranging from the mid-upper 50s near the immediate to coast to the mid to upper 60s elsewhere. It would not be surprising if a few places in the southern Central Highlands and the Bangor region reached the 70 degree mark. Lows Monday night should be around 5 degrees above normal and highs on Tuesday near normal across the North and 5-10 d degrees above normal elsewhere.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
The region remains at the base of an upper low stretching from the Canadian Maritimes back into the Midwest from Tuesday night-Saturday. The models do not agree on how to handle shortwaves coming across the base of this trough and the handling of any ridging that builds under the ridge in this time frame.

For now it appears it should be dry Tuesday night. After that, there is some indication for the potential for rain or rain showers across at least portions of the CWA from Wednesday through Saturday. Some solutions would have things being more dry than wet, while others the opposite. As a result have limited pops to slight chance to chance during this time frame to reflect the uncertainty.

Temperatures should be near to slightly below normal Tuesday night, then near to below normal Wednesday-Saturday - depending on exactly where any precipitation sets up and how extensive it might be. The temperature forecast in this time range is a low confidence forecast given the uncertainty.

AVIATION /04Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
NEAR TERM: VFR/MVFR then expected late tonight into Sunday morning. Variable conditions with any patchy fog Downeast late tonight. Generally VFR conditions expected later Sunday morning into the afternoon. A slight chance/chance of showers Sunday afternoon. Light and variable winds tonight. Southeast/south winds around 10 knots, becoming south 10 to 15 knots with gusts up to around 20 knots Sunday.

SHORT TERM: Sunday Night...IFR or lower possible. LLWS possible.

Monday...becoming VFR.

Monday Night-Tuesday night...VFR. Low chance of winds G15-20KT, with higher confidence in NW wind direction in this time frame.

Wednesday-Thursday...MVFR or lower possible - very low confidence. E-NE winds G15-20KT possible - very low confidence.

MARINE
NEAR TERM: Winds/seas below small craft advisory levels tonight through Sunday.

SHORT TERM: Sub-SCA conditions are forecast on all waters Sunday night-Thursday. There could be some wind gusts to around 20 kt on the waters Sunday night and Monday, and again on Tuesday.

CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...None.
MARINE...None.

Fredericton
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