Thursday, September23, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Ashland, ME

Version 3.4
NOTICE
3/30/2021 -- ANZ330 has been split into ANZ331 and ANZ332. Click EDIT in Marine Forecast and select your new zone.
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 7:20AMSunset 7:30PM Thursday September 23, 2021 11:52 PM ADT (02:52 UTC) Moonrise 7:51PMMoonset 8:57AM Illumination 93% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 17 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Ashland, ME
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location: 46.62, -68.39     debug


Area Discussion for - Caribou, ME
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FXUS61 KCAR 240228 AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 1028 PM EDT Thu Sep 23 2021

SYNOPSIS. High pressure will slowly move east of Nova Scotia through overnight. A cold front will approach the region from the west Friday night and slowly move across the region into early Sunday. Low pressure over the Atlantic will move east of the region on Sunday. An upper level trough will cross the region from Quebec on Monday and Tuesday. On Wednesday high pressure will approach from the west.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/. 1010 PM Update . Pops and wx elements were adjusted to fit the latest radar trends holding back the showers to the sw. Decided to push back on the timing of showers into northern and western areas til daybreak. Temps have cooled off into the 60s across the CWA. Low clouds push up from the into the Bangor and Downeast region per latest Microphysics satl imagery. The latest RAP and HRRR bring low clouds further n overnight. Made adjustments to match w/this assessment and brought thicker clouds up into ne areas after about 2 AM. Also backed off on the timing of the fog by a few more hrs. Rest of the forecast looks in line.

Previous Discussion . High pressure east Nova Scotia is directing the flow off the Gulf of Maine into Eastern/Northern Maine. This has caused an increase in moisture with it feeling muggy across the FA today. Expect areas of fog to develop over the waters and push into the Downeast coast this evening. Patchy fog will develop over the Highlands mainly southeast of the Longfellow Mtns and Katahdin region. A large trough over the Great Lakes combined with an Upper-Level low Northwest of Bermuda is directing an Atmospheric River over western New England tonight. The trough over the Great Lakes is lifting northeast slowly and tilting negatively. At the surface a front will be pushing into the Champlain Valley of Vermont. As moisture increases tonight with surface lift expect a chance of showers to develop overnight. Best chances of showers will be across southern & western zones. As the front slowly pushes east tomorrow the funnel of moisture will increase over western zones. Showers will increase to be scattered and widespread during the day. Low-level jet increases and expecting decent mixing so breezy southeast winds will develop. Expect 15 to 25mph wind gusts especially across the higher terrain. Temperatures will increase into the upper 60s to low 70s thanks to +15 to +17C 925mb temperatures pushing into the area. There will be a few sunny breaks in the morning but not expecting much sun during the afternoon. As those heavier showers to our west get closer cannot rule out some isolated thunderstorms with just a slight amount of instability. This would be mainly right along our border with GYX CWA.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/. Models are starting to come into slightly better agreement on the short term. Southeasterly flow will continue to bring a good slug of low-level moisture ahead of the front. This should enhance rainfall across the southern portion of the forecast area initially. Friday night, some instability leads to showery precipitation ahead of the front; however CAPEs are limited, so am not expecting any thunderstorms as the front approaches. Saturday afternoon may provide a brief break in precipitation but skies will remain cloudy. As the upper level low shifts closer to the area Saturday night, a surface boundary will develop offshore, bringing another round of precipitation. The models have not been in good agreement on how much rain is expected with this second round. The potential of a surface low developing offshore seems to be throwing a wrench in the works with how much precipitation makes it onshore. Current thinking is that southeasterly flow ahead of the developing low on Sunday will provide some additional moisture, especially with upslope flow over the mountains in the central portion of the state. With warmer temperatures aloft and widespread upslope flow, this should be more stratiform in nature, lingering through Sunday into Sunday night. QPF amounts are still somewhat in question, as it depends on how much enhancement from upslope flow occurs. Current forecast brings widespread 0.5 to 0.75" Saturday night and Sunday, but this may be a conservative amount.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/. After Sunday, the forecast remains unsettled through the early part of next week. Depending on how quickly the precip band moves off to the east, precip may linger through Monday afternoon for the eastern portion of the forecast area. On Tuesday, the upper level low will pass off to the north. This has the chance to bring some precipitation across the Crown of Maine mid-week, but the track of this upper low is not very clear at the moment, so forecast is just for a slight chance of showers. Behind this low, high pressure will begin to build in, bringing better weather for the end of the weak. Cooler temperatures aloft are behind this low as well, so expect a return to more seasonable night time temperatures for the end of the month.

AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/. NEAR TERM: Generally VFR through midnight. VFR cigs drop to MVFR/IFR this evening with fog developing. A chance of showers through the night. Winds S-SE 5-10kts. After midnight all remaining sites cigs fall to MVFR/IFR. By daybreak cigs fall to IFR/LIFR with fog/showers at BHB & BGR. Elsewhere, chance of of showers with the low cigs. Tomorrow IFR/LIFR improves to low end MVFR through late morning. MVFR with a chance of showers becoming showers likely by late day. SE winds increasing 10-20kts with some gusts to 25kts possible.

SHORT TERM: Friday night . MVFR becoming IFR in SHRA from W to E. SE winds gusting to 20 knots at PQI/CAR/FVE. SE winds less than 10 kts elsewhere.

Sat . MVFR early at BGR, BHB, HUL, becoming IFR by afternoon. Light southerly winds.

Sat night and Sun . LIFR in -RA for all sites, lifting to MVFR at BGR/BHB by Sunday afternoon. Light southerly winds.

Sun night . MVFR becoming VFR at BGR/BHB. MVFR tempo IFR in -RA all night at HUL/CAR/FVE. Light westerly winds.

Mon and Monday night . VFR conditions south, MVFR lifting to VFR Monday morning for the north. Light winds.

MARINE. NEAR TERM: Winds/seas below SCA through early morning. By late morning expect wind gusts to reach SCA levels with seas increasing to low end SCA criteria. SCA in effect for the waters from 11am through the end of the period.

SHORT TERM: Winds will drop below SCA Friday evening, but seas will remain above 5 feet through midnight. On Saturday, seas will begin to increase later in the day as some longer period swell moves in from the south. Seas will reach 6 feet by Sunday night, then gradually decrease through Tuesday.

CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. ME . None. MARINE . Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM Friday to 5 AM EDT Saturday for ANZ050>052.



Near Term . Hewitt


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Presque Isle, ME19 mi56 minSE 710.00 miFair64°F60°F87%1025.2 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KPQI

Wind History from PQI (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSE5SE4SE6E4S10
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1 day agoS11SW8S7S6S5S5S7S5S4S5SW8
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2 days agoCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmS3CalmSE3CalmS6SE7SE6SE10S11S15S14S18
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