Sunrise 5:48 AM   Sunset 8:21 PM Moonrise 2:29 AM   Moonset 12:23 PM

  Print   HELP   Reset   Save   Recall

LSZ121 /o.can.kdlh.ma.w.0035.000000t0000z-231005t2345z/ 632 Pm Cdt Thu Oct 5 2023
.the special marine warning is cancelled - .
the affected areas were - . Chequamegon bay-bayfield to oak point wi - . Sand island to bayfield wi - .
the showers have moved out of the warned area and no longer pose a significant threat to boaters.
lat - .lon 4673 9060 4674 9068 4687 9063 4695 9044 4713 9035 4714 9013 4672 9040 time - .mot - .loc 2331z 263deg 31kt 4709 9022 4693 9031 4678 9056

LSZ100
No data

FXUS63 KDLH 021131 AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Duluth MN 631 AM CDT Thu May 2 2024

KEY MESSAGES

- Another round of precipitation to affect the area today and tonight with total QPF amounts of between 0.2" and 0.5"

- Saturday to be cool and showery followed by warmer and drier conditions for Sunday.

- Active pattern returns to our region beginning early next week and continuing through much of the work week with multiple chances for precipitation

DISCUSSION
Issued at 427 AM CDT Thu May 2 2024

Our next wave of precipitation is approaching the Northland this morning as a surface low over southeast Nebraska moves across Iowa into southern Wisconsin by this evening, then continuing to the northeast and weakening. There is a secondary low that develops over North Dakota today, and as the first feature weakens, strengthens and moves slowly northeast tonight and Friday. There is also a strong upper level shortwave that pushes out of Wyoming today and moves northeast across Minnesota tonight. This will produce a healthy round of rainfall that pushes across the forecast area today and tonight, with lingering showers into Friday. The current radar imagery shows the main band of rainfall associated with the southern surface low now moving across southern Minnesota, with a second area over North Dakota, with the developing low. These areas bot will spread northeast across the forecast area today and tonight, with a high probability (>90%) of bringing at least a tenth of an inch to a large portion of the area. However, only parts of northwest Wisconsin have a 50 percent chance of getting a half inch of rainfall by Friday morning. These higher rainfall probabilities are associated with some elevated instability that may produce some rumbles of embedded thunder this evening there. We are also in a general thunder category in the SPC day 1 outlook, and northwest Wisconsin is in a marginal risk of excessive rainfall. It will be a chilly, blustery day with highs down in the mid 40s to mid 50s, with the coolest conditions around Lake Superior. We will have wrap-around shower activity along the US/Canada border on Friday, along with a weak mid level baroclinic zone that slides through the area and may bring another period of light rainfall into the area on Friday night into Saturday. Rainfall amounts with this system will be considerably lighter with much less potential for convective elements that could increase rainfall amounts. Friday will be warmer than today with southwest winds instead of the easterlies we expect today, and high temperatures should get into the 60s for a large portion of the area. Saturday to have slightly cooler temperatures. Sunday to be warmer and drier with highs rising into the 60s nearly everywhere, with west to southwest winds.

Early next week it appears we will have another fairly potent spring storm system that moves across the central CONUS for much of the upcoming work week. The operational models are keeping Monday daytime mostly dry, though the ensembles are showing some faster members that push precipitation in here earlier, so we have some low confidence pops in for Monday. The large cut off low associated with this system spins over the northern Plains for the early part of the week, but the evolution after that is rather unclear at this point, but we are carrying pops for much of the Monday through Thursday time frame. Temperatures should be on the warmer side for Monday and Tuesday, but then cool off later in the week.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/
Issued at 630 AM CDT Thu May 2 2024

An approaching low pressure system will cause the current VFR conditions to deteriorate this morning. Rain spreading in from the south will cause ceilings and visibilities to be reduced to MVFR initially for most locations, with further lowering expected later in the day to IFR or even LIFR, mainly for ceilings. KDLH to get the lowest conditions, with LIFR visibilities and ceilings. The lowest conditions are expected in the 23z - 05z time frame. Improvement is expected after 05z as the rain lifts out of the area to the north, causing improving conditions from south to north overnight.

MARINE /FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/
Issued at 630 AM CDT Thu May 2 2024

Northeast winds to gradually increase this morning, with gusts of over 20kts beginning later this morning and continuing into the evening before diminishing once again overnight. As this will create conditions hazardous to small craft, have issued a Small Craft Advisory for the southwest arm, North Shore and around the Apostle Islands for late morning through early evening. A trough axis moving across the area will cause these northeast winds to switch to southwest overnight tonight and early Friday as well. On Friday these southwest winds will ramp up again from mid morning until late afternoon, perhaps causing another period of hazardous conditions for small craft. Once the winds decrease on Friday evening, winds will remain less than 15 knots Friday night and Saturday.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...None.
WI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 4 AM CDT Friday for LSZ140>142-147-150.
Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 4 AM CDT Friday for LSZ143>146.

toggle option: (graph/table)

Full Color Weather Map

Link to Loop


Other links: GEOS-West     Contential US     Full GOES-East

Duluth, MN,