Sunrise 5:53 AM   Sunset 8:17 PM Moonrise 12:50 AM   Moonset 8:31 AM

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LSZ145 /o.can.kdlh.ma.w.0033.000000t0000z-231005t2300z/ 535 Pm Cdt Thu Oct 5 2023
.the special marine warning is cancelled - .
the affected areas were - . Duluth mn to port wing wi - .
the showers have moved out of the warned area and no longer pose a significant threat to boaters.
lat - .lon 4676 9092 4687 9081 4690 9080 4693 9086 4692 9095 4684 9110 4682 9118 4683 9121 4674 9151 4686 9121 4708 9107 4710 9034 4687 9063 4673 9090 time - .mot - .loc 2234z 263deg 40kt 4703 9088 4691 9103 4677 9123

LSZ100
No data

FXUS63 KDLH 291737 AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Duluth MN 1237 PM CDT Mon Apr 29 2024

KEY MESSAGES

- Localized freezing rain is expected for the higher terrain of the North Shore this morning (total ice accumulations around 0.15")

- Light snow will mix with rain for parts of northeast Minnesota this morning (snow accumulations up to 1" mainly on grassy/elevated surfaces around and north of the Iron Range)

- Strong northeast winds up to 45 mph are expected along the North Shore of Lake Superior this morning.

- Active weather continues through the week with rainy systems on Tuesday and Thursday.

DISCUSSION
Issued at 238 AM CDT Mon Apr 29 2024

Well, this has been a fun system with various levels of complexity at play. At least this morning the winds have come down some and generally have been below Wind Advisory criteria, so cancelled that headline early though a few more gusts to 45 mph are possible. Perhaps could have left it a few more hours as a thin band of stronger winds is moving northward behind the first precipitation shield. Those wind gusts should be short- lived though. Shortened the timing of the Wind Advisory on the North Shore to end this morning rather in the afternoon.
Guidance moves this system through fairly quickly today.

To the best of our knowledge the ice/snow forecast has been working out thus far. Have seen some obs with snow, but nothing accumulating on webcams while temperatures remain largely above freezing except along the North Shore where some localized icing is likely occurring, but radar echoes aren't showing too heavy of rainfall (freezing) rates. Content with keeping that Winter Weather Advisory intact. The NWS office in Duluth had some interesting icing phenomena late Sunday evening where ice was not accumulating on the ground, but it was accumulating about 5 to 6 feet off the ground on poles and trees.
Temperatures have since warmed and that has melted, but it was a neat lesson in thermodynamics and trying to forecast this stuff.

Temperatures should remain warm enough over most of the forecast area today to continue rain showers before they move out this evening. There will be a brief break with some dry weather Tuesday before the next warmer system arrives Tuesday night bringing more rain and possibly a thunderstorm. Rinse and repeat with another dry-ish day Wednesday before another wet system arrives Thursday with a bit more instability across NW WI giving a better chance for thunderstorms.

Late in the forecast period, models diverge quite a bit, but a cursory look suggests that an active pattern continues as we slowly erode the drought conditions.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/
Issued at 1230 PM CDT Mon Apr 29 2024

TAFs continue to be messy. Oscillating ceilings and visibilities from passing showers and lingering fog will continue throughout the day. DLH will stay in the soup more consistently with IFR to LIFR visibilities and LIFR to VLIFR ceilings from stratus and fog being transported up the hillside from Lake Superior. Winds will switch to the north this evening, causing DLH to join the rest of the terminals in oscillating conditions. Windy conditions continue at DLH as well, though winds should begin to decrease this afternoon prior to the wind switch this evening.
Fog is expected to linger/redevelop overnight tonight, though models are showing a spread of whether visibilities overnight will lower below MVFR. This will be monitored in future routine TAFs.

MARINE
Issued at 238 AM CDT Mon Apr 29 2024

Gales slowly subside today from southwest to northeast with the North Shore holding onto them into the early afternoon. The waves kicked up by this system will remain above four feet into Tuesday morning which will keep Small Craft Advisories in effect after the gales end. More Small Craft Advisories will be needed periodically throughout the week as several more system cross Lake Superior.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...Winter Weather Advisory until 1 PM CDT this afternoon for MNZ012-021.
WI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM CDT Tuesday for LSZ121-143>148- 150.
Gale Warning until 4 PM CDT this afternoon for LSZ140>142.

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