Sunrise 5:31 AM   Sunset 7:52 PM Moonrise 12:27 AM   Moonset 8:00 AM

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FXUS61 KCAR 280413 AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 1213 AM EDT Sun Apr 28 2024

SYNOPSIS
High pressure will slowly exit to the east overnight into Sunday. A warm front will cross the region Sunday. A cold front will cross the region later Sunday into Monday. Low pressure will approach from the west Tuesday and track south of the Gulf of Maine into Wednesday. High pressure settles in from the west and then over the area by Thursday.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/
Update...
Raised overnight lows a few degrees across the board. Southerly flow and high/mid level cloud will tend to keep temperatures from falling too much overnight. Otherwise, not much change from previous thinking.

Previous discussion: A weakening warm front will push east into Maine tonight and begin to washout over the area. Expect increasing high clouds overnight into tomorrow morning. Light and variable winds gradually shift southerly but remain generally less than 10mph.
A warmer airmass is moving in so expecting lows tomorrow morning generally mid to upper 30s with some low 40s in the North Woods where the thicker clouds keep it warmer. Tomorrow will be mostly cloudy but a few sunny breaks expected as a cold front settles southeast into Maine from Quebec. Expecting isolated to scattered showers to develop from NW to SE across the area by evening and tracking south into Downeast areas by early evening.
Not expecting a lot of precip with these showers with generally less than 0.1 inch. During the afternoon closer to the New Brunswick border will have to monitor the fire weather concerns given the gusty southerly winds there will be RHs still in the 35-40% range while much of the area seems much higher RH values.
Highs top out in the upper 50s to low 60s across the area tomorrow with 50-55F along the shore thanks to the wind off the Gulf of Maine waters.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
Sunday night, the upper level ridge will move eastward and a cold front will approach from the west. The bulk of the cold air associated with this system will stay further north. Although there is some divergence aloft ahead of the front, there is not a strong southerly connection feeding moisture into this system either. As a result, the front is not expected the be particularly strong, and precip will mostly remain in the form of rain showers across the region. Any development with this front is expected further south in the warmer air mass, so QPF amounts should remain in the order of 0.1 to 0.25 for the region.

Showers will dissipate relatively early on Monday, then high pressure will move in. The tightening gradient will increase winds behind the front and Monday will be another gusty northerly wind day, in particular for the northern areas. This will usher in slightly cooler temperatures than we saw over the weekend as well, with highs above 60 held to the southern half of the forecast area, and mid to upper 50s in the north. Monday night will be clear and cold since northerly flow will continue until Tuesday. Overnight lows will be below freezing across the north and in the mid 30s from the Central Highlands and south.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
Tuesday night and Wednesday morning, a shortwave trough will pass through the area, generating showers. Models have trended further southward with the bulk of this energy and the chances of precip across the forecast area have decreased from run to run. NBM is taking a little bit to catch up with this trend, so a different blend was used for PoPs to minimize precip across the north. Upper level ridging is expected to return Wednesday and Thursday, with temperatures jumping back up into the upper 50s and mid 60s by the end of the week. Some uncertainty remains in the forecast for the end of the week, with an upper level low expected to bring showers over the area. There is some variation on timing between the different model runs. Canadian is the fastest solution, bringing showers from this low on Friday. GFS and EC deterministic runs bring this feature through late Friday and Friday night. Forecast has increasing PoPs for the end of the week, with the greatest concentration across the north, where the upper level low will be centered. This will be a warm system, so high temperatures on Saturday will remain in the upper 50s even with precip expected.

AVIATION /04Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
NEAR TERM: VFR with S/SE wind around 5 knots S wind Sat 5-15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt possible. VFR cigs continues tomorrow with VCSH/-SHRA expected in the PM. Low chance of MVFR ceilings toward 00z.

SHORT TERM:

Sun night...MVFR, mainly at N terminals in -SHRA. Primarily VFR at S terminals. S winds 10 to 15 kts becoming N winds 10 to 20kts with gusts to 25kt.

Mon and Mon night...VFR. N winds 5-15kt with gusts up to 25kt.

Tue and Tue night...VFR north, chance MVFR south in possible -SHRA. E-NE winds 5-15kt.

Wed through Thur...VFR. Chance MVFR in -SHRA for N terminals Thursday. SE winds 5-10kt.

MARINE
NEAR TERM: Winds/seas below SCA conditions through Saturday.
Winds generally less than 10kt tonight. S winds tomorrow generally 10-15kt. Seas generally 1-2ft into tomorrow with a wave period of 7-9sec. Sea surface temperatures generally 40-43F from the Downeast coast out 25nm and east to the Hague Line including Passamaquoddy Bay.

SHORT TERM: Slight potential for small craft winds on Tuesday morning, mainly for the outer waters. Otherwise winds and seas are expected to remain below SCA criteria through the period.
Seas will be mainly around 2 feet.

CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...None.
MARINE...None.

Bassin De La Rivi?re St-Charles, Quebec, Tide feet

Montmorency
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Sat -- 03:32 AM EDT     0.83 meters Low Tide
Sat -- 05:35 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 07:10 AM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 08:43 AM EDT     4.93 meters High Tide
Sat -- 04:25 PM EDT     0.73 meters Low Tide
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Montmorency, Quebec, Tide feet

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