Sunrise 5:55 AM   Sunset 8:16 PM Moonrise 12:00 AM   Moonset 7:24 AM

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LSZ146 Expires:202310052300;;820549 Fzus73 Kdlh 052249 Mwsdlh
marine weather statement national weather service duluth mn 549 pm cdt Thu oct 5 2023
lsz121-146-147-150-162-052300- /o.con.kdlh.ma.w.0033.000000t0000z-231005t2300z/ 549 pm cdt Thu oct 5 2023
.a special marine warning remains in effect until 600 pm cdt - .
for the following areas - . Chequamegon bay-bayfield to oak point wi - . Lake superior west of a line from saxon harbor wi to grand portage mn beyond 5nm - . Outer apostle islands beyond 5 nm from mainland - . Port wing to sand island wi - . Sand island to bayfield wi - .
at 548 pm cdt, showers capable of producing waterspouts and wind gusts to 45 knots were located along a line extending from devils island, to raspberry island lighthouse, to near siskwit bay harbor, moving east at 35 knots.
hazard - .waterspouts and wind gusts to 45 knots.
source - .radar indicated.
impact - .waterspouts can create locally hazardous seas. Small craft could be damaged in briefly higher winds and suddenly higher waves.
showers will be near - . Red cliff, raspberry island lighthouse, and apostle islands national lake shore around 555 pm cdt. Stockton island and outer island around 600 pm cdt.
other locations impacted by showers include stockton island, apostle islands national lake shore, and outer island.
precautionary/preparedness actions - .
move to safe harbor immediately as gusty winds and high waves are expected.
waterspouts can easily overturn boats and create locally hazardous seas. SEek safe harbor immediately.
&&
lat - .lon 4676 9092 4687 9080 4690 9080 4693 9085 4692 9095 4683 9113 4709 9088 4710 9034 4687 9063 4673 9090 time - .mot - .loc 2248z 265deg 35kt 4708 9071 4696 9083 4680 9102
waterspout - .possible hail - .0.00in wind - .40kts

LSZ100
No data

FXUS63 KDLH 280535 AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Duluth MN 1235 AM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024

KEY MESSAGES

- Another low pressure system will bring widespread rain Sunday through Monday. Very minor and localized accumulations of freezing rain may be possible along the higher terrain of the North Shore (20-40% chance).

- Strong northeast winds gusting up to 40-45 mph are expected Sunday afternoon through Monday morning along the North Shore. There is a low chance (20-30%) for lakeshore flooding along Lake Superior's shorelines due to strong winds and high waves.

- Another rainy system is likely (60-70%) Tuesday into Tuesday night. There may be more rain later in the week.

DISCUSSION
Issued at 324 PM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024

Rain continues this afternoon, mainly along and east of the US-53 corridor. As low pressure continues moving northeast this afternoon, the rain is expected to end along with it with perhaps some lingering sprinkles into the evening.

An extended break between low pressure systems is expected tonight and into Sunday morning. Models continue to slow down the arrival of the next low pressure system on Sunday, bringing the next round of rainfall in sometime around mid-day into the afternoon. As such, we can expect lingering clouds tonight with mainly dry weather. Despite there being plenty of low-level moisture, fog is not generally expected as winds should remain strong enough to keep the lower- atmosphere well mixed. The air aloft is expected to be dry enough such that any breaks in the low-level clouds could bring some brief patches of clearing.

As low pressure eventually moves northward on Sunday, a broad swath of warm air advection-driven rain will overspread the region. The previous system brought rainfall amounts anywhere from around a quarter of an inch to an inch, and this was well within the forecast amounts. For this second round, model ensembles continue to be in pretty good agreement on rainfall amounts that will be similar, albeit perhaps a touch higher than the first round. By and large, amounts hovering around 1" are expected. Flooding threats will be very minimal due to the long duration of the rain. Also, convection potential will be minimal, similar to the last system. Model soundings all suggest a deep inversion near the surface, so if there are any bubbles of a few hundred J/kg of elevated CAPE that develop, there could possibly be a few embedded rumbles of thunder, but this is expected to be the exception rather than the rule. The rain should persist into Monday, then gradually start to let up through Monday afternoon and evening.

Now, for the folks who thought winter was over, we have some new news for you! That's right, a chance (albeit somewhat small; ~30-40%) for freezing rain for parts of the higher terrain along the North Shore. The HRRR and other ensembles have hinted at just enough orographic cooling to result in temperatures falling a degree or two below freezing Sunday night into early Monday morning while rain falls to result in this freezing rain threat.
Now, a degree or two of temperature will make all the difference in whether or not this happens at all. Models favor only the higher terrain of the North Shore to see below or around freezing temperatures, not directly along the shoreline.
Therefore, if any freezing rain does occur, it should be pretty isolated. Areas from Two Harbors to Silver Bay and northeast along the high terrain will be the target areas. NBM probabilities for a glaze of ice approach 30-50% mainly around the tip of the Arrowhead with probabilities diminishing further southeast. Even where any freezing rain falls, accumulations are likely to be quite minimal with temperatures starting out warm and only falling to a degree or two below freezing for a ~6-8 hour period late Sunday night into early Monday morning. We will continue to monitor this freezing rain potential, but right now the risk for hazardous weather overall appears small.

Strong northeast winds are expected to accompany the rain Sunday afternoon through Monday morning. There's still a bit of spread in ensembles for maximum wind gusts, but in general, the highest winds and gusts can be expected along the North Shore of Lake Superior and extending into the Twin Ports. Wind gusts around 40 mph are expected frequently for areas within about 20 miles of the North Shore shoreline, and NBM probabilities of gusts of 45 mph or higher vary from 70-90%. As such, confidence is high enough with this forecast update to issue a wind advisory along the North Shore. It'll be blustery out there, so hold on to your umbrellas tightly!

With these strong winds, we must also assess the possibility for lakeshore flooding. From previous research, lakeshore flooding has occurred in the Duluth area when the water level is at around 603' (hovering between around 601.5' to 602.0' the past couple days).
Previous cases also featured sustained winds 22-30 kt, gusts 30-39 kt, and northeast flow duration around 24 hours or more. Wave heights around 12-16 feet are usually a minimum for lakeshore flooding. With this guidance in mind, the current forecast features winds/gusts in that low-end threshold for a duration about 20-24 hours and wave heights in the 8-13 ft range (higher towards Silver Bay, and closer to the lower end around the Twin Ports). With all this in mind, confidence isn't quite high enough to issue a Lakeshore Flood Watch at this time. While some lakeshore flooding can't be ruled out, mainly around the Twin Ports, confidence is only 20-30% at this time. We will continue to monitor the potential for lakeshore flooding in upcoming updates, and if confidence increases to 50% or greater, we may toss out a watch so stay tuned for updates.

Another rain-making system is likely (60-70% chance) Tuesday into Tuesday night. The originating track of this one will be from Montana/Dakotas, and as such, it'll have a bit less moisture to work with. So, we'll be looking at a 6-12 hour period of rain with amounts more likely to hover around a quarter to half an inch.
Convective potential may be a smidge higher with this system, however, with several models hinting at some instability stretching up towards northwest Wisconsin Tuesday evening. It's too early to determine any potential hazards, but we'll continue to monitor the possibility for some thunderstorms with this Tuesday system.

Models become more divergent for the later part of the week, but rain chances (20-40%) may continue in the later part of the week with an amplified pattern aloft likely to persist.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/
Issued at 1230 AM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024

MVFR most places this morning. Slowed down the timing of the rain in this package and improved ceilings as obs are coming in a bit above guidance, but this is the difference between IFR and MVFR this morning. Ceilings lower towards morning falling below this threshold before they pop up for the morning before falling again to IFR this evening as the rain approaches. Winds will begin to pick up out of the east and become gusty as the next system approaches.

MARINE
Issued at 324 PM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024

Winds will continue to weaken this evening as low pressure departs. Waves up to 2-3 ft may still linger a bit into the early evening before they weaken as well.

Attention then turns to another low pressure system that will arrive mid-day to afternoon on Sunday, bringing rain and very strong northeasterly winds. Winds will start to strengthen with gusts to 25 kt late tonight, then gales are expected starting Sunday morning around the Twin Ports, then extending elsewhere Sunday afternoon. Winds will be strongest Sunday night into Monday morning, then decreasing as the low pressure system passes through Monday afternoon. This is expected to be a high- end gale event with gusts to 40 to 45 knots, highest along the North Shore Monday morning. In addition, wave heights around 8 to 14 ft are expected, especially along the North Shore and Outer Apostle Islands. Breezy conditions and high wave heights will persist into Monday night.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...Wind Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 4 PM CDT Monday for MNZ020-021.
Wind Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 10 AM CDT Monday for MNZ037.
WI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM early this morning to 4 PM CDT Monday for LSZ121-148.
Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM early this morning to 4 PM CDT this afternoon for LSZ140>143-146-147-150.
Gale Warning from 4 PM this afternoon to 4 PM CDT Monday for LSZ140>143-146-147-150.
Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM to 10 AM CDT this morning for LSZ144-145.
Gale Warning from 10 AM this morning to 10 AM CDT Monday for LSZ144-145.

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