Monday, September27, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Grayland, WA

Version 3.4
NOTICE
3/30/2021 -- ANZ330 has been split into ANZ331 and ANZ332. Click EDIT in Marine Forecast and select your new zone.
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 7:08AMSunset 7:04PM Monday September 27, 2021 12:13 AM PDT (07:13 UTC) Moonrise 9:29PMMoonset 1:10PM Illumination 67% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 21 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PZZ110 Grays Harbor Bar- 836 Pm Pdt Sun Sep 26 2021
.small craft advisory in effect through late Monday night... Combined seas 12 to 14 ft. Bar conditions rough. Maximum ebb currents will occur around 900 am and 915 pm Monday.
PZZ100 836 Pm Pdt Sun Sep 26 2021
Synopsis for the northern and central washington coastal and inland waters..A series of fronts will cross the waters over the next few days as a deep low pressure system advances across the northeastern pacific toward haida gwaii. Another strong front will sweep across the waters late Wednesday into Thursday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Grayland, WA
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location: 46.86, -124.07     debug


Area Discussion for - Portland, OR
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FXUS66 KPQR 270435 AAB AFDPQR

Area Forecast Discussion . UPDATED National Weather Service Portland OR 935 PM PDT Sun Sep 26 2021

SYNOPSIS. A more active weather pattern will result in near to below average temperatures for much of the upcoming week. Wet weather will be primarily confined through Tuesday and then again on Thursday.

SHORT TERM. THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT . A cold front that will bring quite a bit of accumulating rain through Tuesday has begun to move inland and radar shows a bulk of the stratiform rain exiting the area. Winds remain gusty within the post frontal environment. Gusts around 45-50 mph have been observed along the coast but those should ease slightly over the next few hours. Will likely still see southerly gusty winds through the remainder of the evening into early Tuesday morning with the highest wind speeds present along the coast - especially beaches and headlands. Convective showers will persist through Monday morning.

In strong cold air advection behind the front, the upper atmosphere cools and hence the area becomes unstable. The lower atmosphere is unlikely to experience sufficient warming for more appreciable instability (of course, this will depend on cloud cover through the day), but a narrow CAPE profile from soundings suggests adequate instability through the charge-separation layer for a few isolated lightning strikes area-wide tomorrow. In addition, strong south-southwesterly flow ahead of the 500mb low's core will add some shear to the unstable layer of the atmosphere for sustained convection tomorrow afternoon. Any stronger showers/thundershowers will bring the potential for briefly gusty winds and a burst of heavy rain.

The coldest temperatures aloft - sub -24C if the GFS and ECMWF verify - arrive Tuesday, when the bulk of the vertical wind shear slides east of the area. Hence, a slight chance for thunderstorms will be allowed to continue Tuesday, but the threat looks marginal at best. In addition, we have opted to keep the high Cascades out of the thunder mention given the terrain there will poke above much of the charge separation zone. Still, an isolated thunderclap from storms in the vicinity may be audible there. As is always the case when a slight chance of thunderstorms (i.e., a 20-25% chance) is in the forecast, the chances are 3-4 times greater that there will be no thunder. -Muessle/Bumgardner

LONG TERM. WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY . The chances for rain come to an end briefly from west to east across the area into Wednesday morning, but right on this system's heels is another that will bring a second round of rain chances for the mid-week time period. With this second system, chances for rain begin to creep up Wednesday morning along the coast and late Wednesday night into Thursday morning in the Willamette Valley. Precipitation totals with this system are currently looking less than the first, and precipitation probabilities generally decrease from north to south across northwest to north-central Oregon.

Thursday evening/night we dry out, and we look to stay that way through the weekend. WPC's cluster analysis shows good agreement between model ensembles in a pattern transition to southwesterly 500mb flow on the west periphery of a longwave ridge. In this pattern, temperatures are likely to creep back up to above normal. This doesn't look anything like a heat wave, but rather just temperatures in the 70s across the interior lowlands. For Saturday, the EMCWF currently has only 8/50 (or 16% of all) of its members forecasting highs of 80F or higher (warmest is 82F), and the NBM 1D viewer suggests an interquartile probable maximum temperature range from 73F to 78F on Saturday (with only a 3% chance of surpassing 80F). Sunday could be a couple degrees warmer, but again not oppressive - but that's beyond the time range of this forecast package. -Bumgardner

AVIATION. A frontal rain band and lowering clouds continue their march across the area this evening. IFR to LIFR conditions expected to continue along the coastal terminals this evening with slight improvement after 12Z, but remaining in MVFR and IFR categories with rain showers continuing. Southerly winds will continue gusting 30 to 40 kts into the early morning hours before trending down, though gusts to 20 will still occur. LLWS will still likely be occurring through about 09Z.

For the inland terminals, VFR conditions will be trending down into MVFR within the next hour or two. Rain and breezy winds will continue overnight, with some decrease in visibility towards sunrise. Some improvement in ceilings expected Monday afternoon. Airmass will become more unstable Monday, to allow the possibility of thunderstorms to form, though confidence in timing and location is quite low at this time.

Better improvement in flight conditions expected after 20Z Monday, with the coast likely improving towards IFR/MVFR and inland areas improving towards high-end MVFR/low- end VFR.

For detailed regional Pac NW aviation weather information, go online to: https:/weather.gov/zse

KPDX AND APPROACHES . Cigs will lower to MVFR soon with rain showers continuing overnight. Southerly winds may still become gusty with the passing showers, however sustained may be within the 7-10 kt range. MVFR conditions with surface visibility within 4-7 miles will continue through Monday morning, with a brief reduction possible near 15z when another wave of heavier rain is expected. The airmass will become a bit more unstable Monday to allow for the possibility of thunderstorms, however the best chance looks to remain far south of the terminal. -Kriederman

MARINE. A Gale Warning is being validated as observations at Buoys 46029, 46089 and 46050 have seen gusts in the 35 to 40 kt range. Coastal jet conditions will continue as well, with some areas reaching 45 kt through this evening.

Seas will trend around 9 to 11 ft driven primarily by the southerly wind wave tonight. There will be a westerly swell around 4 to 6 ft which will make for a chaotic sea state.

The parent low continues to deepen and move into the Canadian coastline near Haida Gwaii tonight. South/southwesterly winds persist across all waters through Monday before the associated cold front arrives late Monday/Tuesday morning. As the front moves onshore, winds will weaken with gusts around 20 kts. However, seas will build toward 13-15 ft Monday as the westerly swell arrives with a period around 13 to 15 seconds. A Small Craft Advisory will be issued for this time. Seas and winds will subside Tuesday. -42/Kriederman

PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. OR . None. WA . None. PZ . Gale Warning until 3 AM PDT Monday for PZZ250-255-270-275. Small Craft Advisory until midnight PDT tonight for PZZ210. Small Craft Advisory from 6 AM Monday to 2 PM PDT Tuesday for PZZ210.




Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
WPTW1 - 9441102 - Westport, WA 4 mi97 min S 17 G 23 57°F 54°F1004 hPa
46211 - Grays Harbor, WA (036) 9 mi47 min 55°F13 ft
TOKW1 - 9440910 - Toke Point, WA 12 mi55 min S 24 G 31 58°F 56°F1004.9 hPa
46243 - Clatsop Spit, OR - 162 45 mi47 min 55°F13 ft
ASTO3 - 9439040 - Astoria, OR 48 mi55 min S 8.9 G 17 60°F 63°F1005.8 hPa
46041 - CAPE ELIZABETH- 45NM Northwest of Aberdeen, WA 49 mi43 min SSW 14 G 18 56°F 55°F1003.9 hPa56°F

Wind History for Westport, WA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Hoquiam, Bowerman Airport, WA10 mi20 minSW 24 G 325.00 miLight Rain Fog/Mist and Windy61°F57°F87%1006.1 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KHQM

Wind History from HQM (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS5S6S7S7S12S8S8S7SE4S12
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1 day agoE3CalmE3CalmCalmE3CalmSE4S6S6S7SW9SW13SW8W9W8W8W9W7SW4W8SW6SW4S6
2 days agoNE3E6NE7E8NE5NE8E11E11E10E9E8
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Tide / Current Tables for Bay City, Tillamook Bay, Oregon
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Bay City
Click for Map
Mon -- 12:22 AM PDT     0.79 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 06:43 AM PDT     4.95 feet High Tide
Mon -- 07:10 AM PDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 11:54 AM PDT     2.96 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 02:10 PM PDT     Moonset
Mon -- 05:26 PM PDT     6.10 feet High Tide
Mon -- 07:03 PM PDT     Sunset
Mon -- 10:28 PM PDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.80.91.52.43.54.34.84.94.64.13.53.133.23.94.75.6665.74.942.92

Tide / Current Tables for Grays Harbor Entrance, Washington Current
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Grays Harbor Entrance
Click for Map
Mon -- 12:13 AM PDT     0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 02:42 AM PDT     1.37 knots Max Flood
Mon -- 06:19 AM PDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 07:10 AM PDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 08:58 AM PDT     -1.45 knots Max Ebb
Mon -- 11:57 AM PDT     0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 02:11 PM PDT     Moonset
Mon -- 02:21 PM PDT     1.28 knots Max Flood
Mon -- 05:32 PM PDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 07:03 PM PDT     Sunset
Mon -- 09:20 PM PDT     -2.47 knots Max Ebb
Mon -- 10:28 PM PDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-0.20.71.31.41.10.80.3-0.6-1.3-1.5-1.3-0.800.91.31.20.80.3-0.3-1.2-2.1-2.5-2.4-2

Weather Map
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NOTE: This section has been updated as of 1/26/2021. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may use the EDIT function to update your location.
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