Tuesday, September28, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Cleveland, ND

Version 3.4
NOTICE
3/30/2021 -- ANZ330 has been split into ANZ331 and ANZ332. Click EDIT in Marine Forecast and select your new zone.
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 7:28AMSunset 7:21PM Tuesday September 28, 2021 11:18 AM CDT (16:18 UTC) Moonrise 10:31PMMoonset 2:24PM Illumination 52% Phase: Third Quarter Moon; Moon at 22 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Cleveland, ND
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location: 46.89, -99.12     debug


Area Discussion for - Bismarck, ND
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FXUS63 KBIS 281525 AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Bismarck ND 1025 AM CDT Tue Sep 28 2021

UPDATE. Issued at 1025 AM CDT Tue Sep 28 2021

Limited updates needed this morning as clear skies remain across the area. Did blend in latest guidance for winds today, with breezy conditions expected for much of the area. With hot temperatures in the 90s, and dry conditions in place, most areas will see near to critical fire weather conditions. Red Flag Warning still remains in the more critical locations of the southwest. Some consideration was given to expansion of this warning, mainly north and east of the Missouri River. RH values will be low in the teens and 20s, although winds remain the area of uncertainty. Decided to continue to monitor these areas for the time being. Otherwise the forecast remains on track.

UPDATE Issued at 647 AM CDT Tue Sep 28 2021

The surface low that will be the focus of our weather tonight and tomorrow is currently analyzed in north central Montana, with the cold front extending to the southwest of the center. Nothing has really changed regarding our expectations for today, with hot and breezy conditions across the area, and the Red Flag Warning for this afternoon and evening. Freshened up winds with latest model guidance, otherwise no changes needed with this update.

SHORT TERM. (Today and tonight) Issued at 341 AM CDT Tue Sep 28 2021

Critical fire weather conditions and hot temperatures highlights the short term forecast.

This morning, heights were continuing to build over the eastern half of the Northern Plains, with a potent, anomalous thermal ridge extending through the region. Today is expected to be slightly hotter than yesterday, so again bumped high temperatures up to the high end of guidance, with 850mb temperatures projected to be in the 25-27 C range. Forecast highs are in the upper 80s far east to the upper 90s southwest. As far as records go, Minot is forecast to break the record of 94 degrees set back in 1905, with a forecast high of 96. Otherwise, Dickinson, Bismarck, and Jamestown are all forecast to be a few degrees cooler than the record.

A Red Flag Warning is in effect for areas south and west of the Missouri River this afternoon and evening. Breezy southeasterly winds are expected to develop this afternoon in response to a deepening low pressure in Montana that will tighten the surface pressure gradient. Similar to yesterday, extremely dry air is over western North Dakota which will lead to relative humidity values bottoming around around 10 percent. This combination of low relative humidity and winds sustained at 15 to 20 mph, with gusts to 35 mph, will lead to critical fire weather conditions. With this update, we debated adding in McLean and Burleigh Counties, due to the close overlap of stronger winds and lower relative humidity, but ultimately didn't have the highest confidence and kept them in the near-critical area. Would not be too surprised to see some expansion of the RFW later this morning, however.

With the surface low to our west comes a cold front that will be approaching the western border of the forecast area late this afternoon, bringing a shift to northwesterly winds that will be breezy through the night as the front pushes east. Chances for showers also start this evening along and behind the front, although QPF will probably stay very low in western North Dakota, as it will take a while for the column to saturate due to the extremely dry lower levels. Low temperatures will be varying across the forecast area, with a bit of uncertainty depending on the speed of the front. Current forecast lows range from the upper 40s southwest to the lower 60s east.

LONG TERM. (Wednesday through Monday) Issued at 341 AM CDT Tue Sep 28 2021

The extended forecast is highlighted by a return to near normal temperatures.

By Wednesday morning, the previously discussed cold front is project to be moving through central North Dakota, bringing breezy northwest winds and chances for rain pushing east with the front. The highest PoPs are in the southwest and south central during the morning, and then through much of the central and James River Valley in the afternoon, as the strongest mid level heights falls are vertically stacked with a band of frontogenesis and a narrow axis of 500-1000 J/kg of MUCAPE. Expect scattered showers to move through the forecast area during the day, with a few thunderstorms possible mainly in the south central and southeast. The threat for strong to severe storms looks low at this time, with marginal instability and deep layer shear trending lower with latest guidance. Temperatures on Wednesday will vary significantly across the area due to the cold front passage, with highs in the lower 60s in the southwest compared to the lower 80s in the eastern James River Valley.

As the base of the upper trough slowly pushes out Wednesday night and into Thursday, rain showers could linger in the James River Valley, with cloud cover decreasing to the west. Cluster analysis then shows good agreement on the synoptic pattern being dominated by a strong ridge extending from the Hudson Bay area back through the Great Lakes and central Canadian provinces. NBM temperature percentiles continue to have very small spread through the extended, implying high confidence in the overall pattern. Expect highs in the upper 60s to upper 70s Thursday through Saturday, with a weak front on Sunday cooling temperatures slightly to produce highs in the 60s Sunday through Tuesday.

AVIATION. (For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday morning) Issued at 647 AM CDT Tue Sep 28 2021

VFR conditions expected at all terminals through the TAF period. Southeasterly winds will be breezy today ahead of a cold front that will enter western North Dakota after 00Z. Winds will shift to northwesterly at western terminals KXWA/KDIK by 06Z, and then at central terminals KBIS/KMOT toward the end of the TAF period. This front will also bring a chance of rain showers, although too low of confidence in timing and overall chance to include at any terminals with this update.

BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. Red Flag Warning until 10 PM CDT /9 PM MDT/ this evening for NDZ017>020-031>034-040>045.



UPDATE . Anglin SHORT TERM . MJ LONG TERM . MJ AVIATION . MJ


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Jamestown, Jamestown Municipal Airport, ND23 mi23 minS 1210.00 miFair78°F54°F43%1005.7 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KJMS

Wind History from JMS (wind in knots)
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