Sunrise 5:44 AM   Sunset 8:25 PM Moonrise 3:29 AM   Moonset 4:31 PM

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LSZ146 Expires:202310052300;;562082 Fzus73 Kdlh 052249 Mwsdlh
marine weather statement national weather service duluth mn 549 pm cdt Thu oct 5 2023
lsz121-146-147-150-162-052300- /o.con.kdlh.ma.w.0033.000000t0000z-231005t2300z/ 549 pm cdt Thu oct 5 2023
.a special marine warning remains in effect until 600 pm cdt - .
for the following areas - . Chequamegon bay-bayfield to oak point wi - . Lake superior west of a line from saxon harbor wi to grand portage mn beyond 5nm - . Outer apostle islands beyond 5 nm from mainland - . Port wing to sand island wi - . Sand island to bayfield wi - .
at 548 pm cdt, showers capable of producing waterspouts and wind gusts to 45 knots were located along a line extending from devils island, to raspberry island lighthouse, to near siskwit bay harbor, moving east at 35 knots.
hazard - .waterspouts and wind gusts to 45 knots.
source - .radar indicated.
impact - .waterspouts can create locally hazardous seas. Small craft could be damaged in briefly higher winds and suddenly higher waves.
showers will be near - . Red cliff, raspberry island lighthouse, and apostle islands national lake shore around 555 pm cdt. Stockton island and outer island around 600 pm cdt.
other locations impacted by showers include stockton island, apostle islands national lake shore, and outer island.
precautionary/preparedness actions - .
move to safe harbor immediately as gusty winds and high waves are expected.
waterspouts can easily overturn boats and create locally hazardous seas. SEek safe harbor immediately.
&&
lat - .lon 4676 9092 4687 9080 4690 9080 4693 9085 4692 9095 4683 9113 4709 9088 4710 9034 4687 9063 4673 9090 time - .mot - .loc 2248z 265deg 35kt 4708 9071 4696 9083 4680 9102
waterspout - .possible hail - .0.00in wind - .40kts

LSZ100
No data

FXUS63 KDLH 050522 AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Duluth MN 1222 AM CDT Sun May 5 2024

KEY MESSAGES

- Shower activity this afternoon with some embedded thunderstorms in the Minnesota Arrowhead before showers taper off this evening.

- Mostly clear skies and a colder air mass overhead tonight are expected to aid in fog and frost formation tonight.

- Breezy southerly winds occur with minimum relative humidity in the low to mid-30% range on Monday.

- An active pattern continues with plenty of chances for rain showers and thunderstorms through the week. The next round of rainfall begins Monday night into Tuesday, with non-severe thunderstorms in northwest Wisconsin.

DISCUSSION
Issued at 315 PM CDT Sat May 4 2024

As a cold front departs, there will be a brief window this afternoon where shower activity will prevail. There is just enough MUCAPE (<500 J/kg) to spark a few thunderstorms across NE MN. Shower activity should commence with sunset leaving fairly clear skies as high pressure builds overnight.

Expect fog to develop though a little unsure on the density, so for now have a broad brush patchy fog wording in the forecast.
May need dense fog advisories depending on how this plays out.
There is a little potential for the fog to frost out as temperatures approach the mid to lower 30s.

A little break from the rain on Sunday before the next system begins to push in on Monday bringing stronger winds and dry conditions before rain arrives in the overnight hours between Monday and Tuesday. The parent low to this is attendant to a closed upper level low spinning over western ND. This spawns the cold front over the Northland giving the potential for thunderstorms and some stronger downpours with a narrow strip of PWATs exceeding 1.25" as it crosses. Shear profiles aren't conducive to severe weather, so not expecting any storms to be strong, but do expect them to be around.

That same upper level that spawned the Mon-Tue storm will slowly move east and wrap vort maxes around it giving a chance for shower activity through much of the remainder of the work week.
While the secondary low it spawns looks like it will miss us to the south or just brush NW WI, late in the week, still think there is enough variance in the guidance for that forecast to change, so keep an eye out for forecast updates in this period as a little wobble north could increase our chances for heavier rain.

With compact lows that are moving through the region, could see some elevated winds throughout the week. Given the nature of compact lows, that also means wind directions will be variable and can change quickly.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/
Issued at 1222 AM CDT Sun May 5 2024

The main issue for the period will be fog tonight into Sunday morning. Observations were showing fog developing with the visibility down to a half mile in Solon Springs to 5 miles in a few spots as well. Light or calm winds will lead to more fog overnight and we lower the visibility in most TAFs tonight. The fog should lift by 14Z for most areas then VFR conditions are expected through the day into the evening. There may be some passing VFR ceilings tonight as seen over parts of northwest Minnesota and some VFR cumulus that develops with heating today.
Winds will be at or less than 10 knots for most through the period with some higher gusts.

MARINE /FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/
Issued at 1217 AM CDT Sun May 5 2024

Areas of marine fog are possible through Sunday morning. Light winds under high pressure prevail through Sunday morning before becoming west-southwest at 10-15 knots. No concerns until Monday when northeast winds and waves increase.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...None.
WI...None.
MARINE...None.

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