Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Neihart, MT
May 7, 2024 3:16 AM MDT (09:16 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 5:55 AM Sunset 8:47 PM Moonrise 4:29 AM Moonset 7:45 PM |
Area Discussion for - Great Falls, MT
HIDE HelpNOTE: mouseover dotted underlined text for definition
FXUS65 KTFX 070607 AFDTFX
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Great Falls MT 1205 AM MDT Tue May 7 2024
UPDATED AVIATION SECTION
SYNOPSIS
A dynamic and impactful weather system will impact North Central and Southwestern Montana through midweek with mostly rain at lower elevations and snow in the mountains, along with strong, gusty winds across the Plains and north/south oriented valleys of Southwestern Montana. Travel over passes will be difficult at times, especially through the Little Belts where blizzard conditions are possible. After an active first half of the week, warmer and drier weather is expected for the end of the week.
UPDATE
Inherited forecast is performing nicely; therefore, no update is necessary, at this time.
- Fogleman
DISCUSSION
Key Points:
-Highly impactful spring storm to impact the area through the middle of this week, bringing gusty winds to most of the area, heavy snow to the Central Montana Mountains, and soaking rainfall to the plains
-Most areas across the plains have a >50% chance of seeing at least 1 inch of rainfall and rain equivalent through Thursday morning, with areas east of a line from Havre to Great Falls to Lewistown having a >50% chance of seeing at least 2 inches of precipitation
-Blizzard conditions are expected in the Little Belt Mountains, with heavy snow and wind combining to produce near zero visibility at times, especially Tuesday night and into Wednesday morning.
For accumulations, all mountain ranges across North Central Montana have areas where the probability of a foot of snow is greater than 50% through Thursday morning, with the higher elevations of the Little Belt and Snowy Mountains seeing a >80% chance of over two feet.
-Southwestern Montana will see damp and breezy conditions at times, though generally not as impactful as what will be found across the plains
-Warmer and drier weather returns towards the end of the week
Short term (Through Wednesday)... Clouds continue to thicken today as a strengthening surface low pressure system in Eastern Wyoming continues to move to the north today. As this low continues to deepen and move northward, moisture from the Pacific and Gulf of Mexico will continue to wrap around this system, and will deposit as periods of moderate to heavy rain across the plains, with snow in the higher terrain, especially in the Little Belt and Snowy Mountains.
For today, expect winds to continue to increase across the plains, as rain continues to increase in intensity and coverage, especially east of a Cut Bank to Great Falls to White Sulphur Springs line. The steadiest and most intense rain will generally be east of a Lewistown to Havre line, where steady precipitation will result in most of this area seeing a quarter inch or more through midnight tonight (50% or higher chance). Across the rest of the area, expect winds to continue to increase across the plains and into the Southwest valleys as clouds continue to push into the area.
Tuesday will see wind and rain continue to overspread the plains as the low over Eastern Montana and the Dakotas stalls and continues to deepen. With this low to our east, moisture will continue to stream into the area from the east, pulling moisture in from the Gulf of Mexico. This moisture will begin to focus in on North Central Montana through the day on Tuesday as northeasterly flow at the surface and aloft result in upslope precipitation, not only in the mountains, but also across the plains as moisture moves up the Missouri River Basin. In addition to the heavy rain, we will continue to see strong winds across the plains and North South oriented valleys as cyclonic flow around the low couples with an increasingly strong pressure gradient across the state. Turning our attention to the higher elevations, This combination of wind, along with precipitation falling as snowfall, will create some very poor visibility, especially in the Little Belt Mountains, where the Winter Storm Warning has been upgraded to a Blizzard Warning, as the combination of heavy falling snow and frequent wind gusts over 35 mph will result in very poor to near zero visibility for much of day on Tuesday, especially from mid morning on, especially between Sluice Boxes State Park and Monarch Canyon, and from Kings Hill Pass to Jumping Creek Campground. If you find yourself in a situation where you must travel and you do get stuck, be prepared for increased response times. In addition to the travel impacts, the heavy and wet nature of the snow may cause abnormal stress on trees and power lines, which could result in some power outages, and livestock in these areas may struggle to maneuver through the deep and dense snow.
Some modest improvement is expected in the weather on Wednesday as our weather system begins to slowly weaken and begins to slowly move to the east, but the precipitation will continue across the plains and even begin to push into Southwest Montana. At the same time, we will need to watch snow levels closely for Wednesday morning as colder air works its way in from the north, which may result in some snow reaching the plains on the northern slopes of the Little Belt and Snowy Mountains, including the US 89 corridor from Great Falls to Lewistown. While any accumulations of snow will be limited, we will have the potential for some slushy accumulations, and in the unlikely event that we do see rain change to snow earlier, we could see some tree damage, especially to any trees that have already begun to leaf out. Looking to the southwest, expect periods of snow and some valley rain through the day on Wednesday, though any snow should struggle to accumulate at lower elevations and even on roads through the passes as the May sun angle and latent heat in the ground should be able to help keep roads from seeing much in the way of accumulation.
Precipitation will begin to taper off Wednesday night as our system begins to get further east, with mostly light precipitation and decreasing winds overnight Wednesday night. Ludwig
Extended (Thursday thru next Monday)...snow will continue to decrease in areal extent and intensity through the day on Thursday across the Northern Rockies, with snow lingering the longest over the Central Montana mountains through the early evening hours on Thursday. Broad upper level riding over the Eastern Pacific and western seaboard through the end of the work week will attempt to build east towards the North Rockies through the weekend; however, ensemble clusters predominately keep the ridge axis west of the Continental Divide, with Southwest through North Central Montana remaining below northwesterly flow aloft. This northwesterly flow aloft will help to maintain isolated to scattered showers across much of the CWA over the weekend, most notably along and north of the US Hwy 12 corridor. Temperatures will gradually warm through the end of the work week to near normal, with temperatures warming above normal over the weekend as the aforementioned ridge moves closer to the Northern Rockies and the low level flow backs to the southwest (i.e. weak downsloping surface winds). - Moldan
AVIATION
1205 PM MDT Tue May 7 2024 (07/06Z TAF Period)
A strong northwesterly flow aloft will keep widespread low level wind shear, mountain wave turbulence, and strong northwest surface winds across North Central (KCTB KHVR), Central (KLWT KGTF KHLN), and Southwest (KBZN KEKS KWYS) Montana though at least 08/06Z. High Wind Warnings are in effect for much of the area.
The system responsible for these winds will also spread rain and mainly mountain snow and blowing snow southwest over the terminals through 18Z, lowering mostly low VFR conditions to at least widespread mountain-obscuring MVFR by then, with conditions further lowering to mostly IFR/LIFR by around 00Z with an increase in precipitation intensity. Winter Weather Warnings/Advisories are in effect for mountain areas and areas adjacent to them. -Coulston
Refer to weather.gov/zlc for more detailed regional aviation weather and hazard information.
HYDROLOGY
A slow moving Pacific weather system will bring an extended period of lower elevation rain and mountain snow this week, with the heaviest precipitation falling Tuesday through early Thursday. NBM probabilistic guidance highlights the eastern portions of Central/North-central MT with the heaviest rainfall amounts for this period, largely supporting 1 to 3 inches of rainfall/snow melt liquid equivalent over locations east of a Great Falls to Shelby line Tuesday through Thursday.
While flooding is generally not expected, some rivers, creeks, and streams along the Canadian border in Hill and Blaine Counties are expected to approach or reach action stage Wednesday and Thursday, mainly impacting unpopulated rural locations. Anyone near waterways should remain alert for changing conditions and be prepared to seek higher ground should water rises occur. - RCG
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GTF 39 46 34 43 / 20 100 100 100 CTB 37 45 33 44 / 20 100 100 100 HLN 38 49 37 46 / 10 60 100 100 BZN 33 49 32 45 / 10 50 100 100 WYS 26 41 27 44 / 30 60 90 80 DLN 30 46 33 47 / 10 20 80 80 HVR 41 48 38 56 / 100 100 100 90 LWT 34 39 31 39 / 60 100 100 100
TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
High Wind Warning until 6 AM MDT Wednesday for Bears Paw Mountains and Southern Blaine-Eastern Toole and Liberty-Fergus County below 4500ft-Hill County-Judith Basin County and Judith Gap-Northern Blaine County-Snowy and Judith Mountains-Western and Central Chouteau County.
Winter Weather Advisory from 3 AM Tuesday to 6 AM MDT Wednesday for Bears Paw Mountains and Southern Blaine-Eastern Toole and Liberty.
Winter Storm Warning from noon Tuesday to midnight MDT Wednesday night for Big Belt, Bridger and Castle Mountains-East Glacier Park Region-Snowy and Judith Mountains-Southern Rocky Mountain Front.
High Wind Warning until midnight MDT Tuesday night for Big Belt, Bridger and Castle Mountains-Canyon Ferry Area-Elkhorn and Boulder Mountains-Gates of the Mountains-Helena Valley-Meagher County Valleys-Upper Blackfoot and MacDonald Pass.
Blizzard Warning from noon Tuesday to midnight MDT Wednesday night for Little Belt and Highwood Mountains.
Winter Weather Advisory from 6 PM Tuesday to midnight MDT Wednesday night for Elkhorn and Boulder Mountains-Gallatin and Madison County Mountains and Centennial Mountains-Upper Blackfoot and MacDonald Pass.
Winter Weather Advisory from 6 AM Tuesday to noon MDT Wednesday for Cascade County below 5000ft-Fergus County below 4500ft- Judith Basin County and Judith Gap.
High Wind Warning until 6 PM MDT Tuesday for East Glacier Park Region-Eastern Glacier, Western Toole, and Central Pondera- Northern High Plains-Southern High Plains-Southern Rocky Mountain Front.
High Wind Warning until noon MDT Tuesday for Little Belt and Highwood Mountains.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Great Falls MT 1205 AM MDT Tue May 7 2024
UPDATED AVIATION SECTION
SYNOPSIS
A dynamic and impactful weather system will impact North Central and Southwestern Montana through midweek with mostly rain at lower elevations and snow in the mountains, along with strong, gusty winds across the Plains and north/south oriented valleys of Southwestern Montana. Travel over passes will be difficult at times, especially through the Little Belts where blizzard conditions are possible. After an active first half of the week, warmer and drier weather is expected for the end of the week.
UPDATE
Inherited forecast is performing nicely; therefore, no update is necessary, at this time.
- Fogleman
DISCUSSION
Key Points:
-Highly impactful spring storm to impact the area through the middle of this week, bringing gusty winds to most of the area, heavy snow to the Central Montana Mountains, and soaking rainfall to the plains
-Most areas across the plains have a >50% chance of seeing at least 1 inch of rainfall and rain equivalent through Thursday morning, with areas east of a line from Havre to Great Falls to Lewistown having a >50% chance of seeing at least 2 inches of precipitation
-Blizzard conditions are expected in the Little Belt Mountains, with heavy snow and wind combining to produce near zero visibility at times, especially Tuesday night and into Wednesday morning.
For accumulations, all mountain ranges across North Central Montana have areas where the probability of a foot of snow is greater than 50% through Thursday morning, with the higher elevations of the Little Belt and Snowy Mountains seeing a >80% chance of over two feet.
-Southwestern Montana will see damp and breezy conditions at times, though generally not as impactful as what will be found across the plains
-Warmer and drier weather returns towards the end of the week
Short term (Through Wednesday)... Clouds continue to thicken today as a strengthening surface low pressure system in Eastern Wyoming continues to move to the north today. As this low continues to deepen and move northward, moisture from the Pacific and Gulf of Mexico will continue to wrap around this system, and will deposit as periods of moderate to heavy rain across the plains, with snow in the higher terrain, especially in the Little Belt and Snowy Mountains.
For today, expect winds to continue to increase across the plains, as rain continues to increase in intensity and coverage, especially east of a Cut Bank to Great Falls to White Sulphur Springs line. The steadiest and most intense rain will generally be east of a Lewistown to Havre line, where steady precipitation will result in most of this area seeing a quarter inch or more through midnight tonight (50% or higher chance). Across the rest of the area, expect winds to continue to increase across the plains and into the Southwest valleys as clouds continue to push into the area.
Tuesday will see wind and rain continue to overspread the plains as the low over Eastern Montana and the Dakotas stalls and continues to deepen. With this low to our east, moisture will continue to stream into the area from the east, pulling moisture in from the Gulf of Mexico. This moisture will begin to focus in on North Central Montana through the day on Tuesday as northeasterly flow at the surface and aloft result in upslope precipitation, not only in the mountains, but also across the plains as moisture moves up the Missouri River Basin. In addition to the heavy rain, we will continue to see strong winds across the plains and North South oriented valleys as cyclonic flow around the low couples with an increasingly strong pressure gradient across the state. Turning our attention to the higher elevations, This combination of wind, along with precipitation falling as snowfall, will create some very poor visibility, especially in the Little Belt Mountains, where the Winter Storm Warning has been upgraded to a Blizzard Warning, as the combination of heavy falling snow and frequent wind gusts over 35 mph will result in very poor to near zero visibility for much of day on Tuesday, especially from mid morning on, especially between Sluice Boxes State Park and Monarch Canyon, and from Kings Hill Pass to Jumping Creek Campground. If you find yourself in a situation where you must travel and you do get stuck, be prepared for increased response times. In addition to the travel impacts, the heavy and wet nature of the snow may cause abnormal stress on trees and power lines, which could result in some power outages, and livestock in these areas may struggle to maneuver through the deep and dense snow.
Some modest improvement is expected in the weather on Wednesday as our weather system begins to slowly weaken and begins to slowly move to the east, but the precipitation will continue across the plains and even begin to push into Southwest Montana. At the same time, we will need to watch snow levels closely for Wednesday morning as colder air works its way in from the north, which may result in some snow reaching the plains on the northern slopes of the Little Belt and Snowy Mountains, including the US 89 corridor from Great Falls to Lewistown. While any accumulations of snow will be limited, we will have the potential for some slushy accumulations, and in the unlikely event that we do see rain change to snow earlier, we could see some tree damage, especially to any trees that have already begun to leaf out. Looking to the southwest, expect periods of snow and some valley rain through the day on Wednesday, though any snow should struggle to accumulate at lower elevations and even on roads through the passes as the May sun angle and latent heat in the ground should be able to help keep roads from seeing much in the way of accumulation.
Precipitation will begin to taper off Wednesday night as our system begins to get further east, with mostly light precipitation and decreasing winds overnight Wednesday night. Ludwig
Extended (Thursday thru next Monday)...snow will continue to decrease in areal extent and intensity through the day on Thursday across the Northern Rockies, with snow lingering the longest over the Central Montana mountains through the early evening hours on Thursday. Broad upper level riding over the Eastern Pacific and western seaboard through the end of the work week will attempt to build east towards the North Rockies through the weekend; however, ensemble clusters predominately keep the ridge axis west of the Continental Divide, with Southwest through North Central Montana remaining below northwesterly flow aloft. This northwesterly flow aloft will help to maintain isolated to scattered showers across much of the CWA over the weekend, most notably along and north of the US Hwy 12 corridor. Temperatures will gradually warm through the end of the work week to near normal, with temperatures warming above normal over the weekend as the aforementioned ridge moves closer to the Northern Rockies and the low level flow backs to the southwest (i.e. weak downsloping surface winds). - Moldan
AVIATION
1205 PM MDT Tue May 7 2024 (07/06Z TAF Period)
A strong northwesterly flow aloft will keep widespread low level wind shear, mountain wave turbulence, and strong northwest surface winds across North Central (KCTB KHVR), Central (KLWT KGTF KHLN), and Southwest (KBZN KEKS KWYS) Montana though at least 08/06Z. High Wind Warnings are in effect for much of the area.
The system responsible for these winds will also spread rain and mainly mountain snow and blowing snow southwest over the terminals through 18Z, lowering mostly low VFR conditions to at least widespread mountain-obscuring MVFR by then, with conditions further lowering to mostly IFR/LIFR by around 00Z with an increase in precipitation intensity. Winter Weather Warnings/Advisories are in effect for mountain areas and areas adjacent to them. -Coulston
Refer to weather.gov/zlc for more detailed regional aviation weather and hazard information.
HYDROLOGY
A slow moving Pacific weather system will bring an extended period of lower elevation rain and mountain snow this week, with the heaviest precipitation falling Tuesday through early Thursday. NBM probabilistic guidance highlights the eastern portions of Central/North-central MT with the heaviest rainfall amounts for this period, largely supporting 1 to 3 inches of rainfall/snow melt liquid equivalent over locations east of a Great Falls to Shelby line Tuesday through Thursday.
While flooding is generally not expected, some rivers, creeks, and streams along the Canadian border in Hill and Blaine Counties are expected to approach or reach action stage Wednesday and Thursday, mainly impacting unpopulated rural locations. Anyone near waterways should remain alert for changing conditions and be prepared to seek higher ground should water rises occur. - RCG
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GTF 39 46 34 43 / 20 100 100 100 CTB 37 45 33 44 / 20 100 100 100 HLN 38 49 37 46 / 10 60 100 100 BZN 33 49 32 45 / 10 50 100 100 WYS 26 41 27 44 / 30 60 90 80 DLN 30 46 33 47 / 10 20 80 80 HVR 41 48 38 56 / 100 100 100 90 LWT 34 39 31 39 / 60 100 100 100
TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
High Wind Warning until 6 AM MDT Wednesday for Bears Paw Mountains and Southern Blaine-Eastern Toole and Liberty-Fergus County below 4500ft-Hill County-Judith Basin County and Judith Gap-Northern Blaine County-Snowy and Judith Mountains-Western and Central Chouteau County.
Winter Weather Advisory from 3 AM Tuesday to 6 AM MDT Wednesday for Bears Paw Mountains and Southern Blaine-Eastern Toole and Liberty.
Winter Storm Warning from noon Tuesday to midnight MDT Wednesday night for Big Belt, Bridger and Castle Mountains-East Glacier Park Region-Snowy and Judith Mountains-Southern Rocky Mountain Front.
High Wind Warning until midnight MDT Tuesday night for Big Belt, Bridger and Castle Mountains-Canyon Ferry Area-Elkhorn and Boulder Mountains-Gates of the Mountains-Helena Valley-Meagher County Valleys-Upper Blackfoot and MacDonald Pass.
Blizzard Warning from noon Tuesday to midnight MDT Wednesday night for Little Belt and Highwood Mountains.
Winter Weather Advisory from 6 PM Tuesday to midnight MDT Wednesday night for Elkhorn and Boulder Mountains-Gallatin and Madison County Mountains and Centennial Mountains-Upper Blackfoot and MacDonald Pass.
Winter Weather Advisory from 6 AM Tuesday to noon MDT Wednesday for Cascade County below 5000ft-Fergus County below 4500ft- Judith Basin County and Judith Gap.
High Wind Warning until 6 PM MDT Tuesday for East Glacier Park Region-Eastern Glacier, Western Toole, and Central Pondera- Northern High Plains-Southern High Plains-Southern Rocky Mountain Front.
High Wind Warning until noon MDT Tuesday for Little Belt and Highwood Mountains.
Great Falls, MT,
NOTICE: Some pages have affiliate links to Amazon. As an Amazon Associate, I earn from qualifying purchases. Please read website Cookie, Privacy, and Disclamers by clicking HERE. To contact me click HERE. For my YouTube page click HERE