Thursday, October21, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Ketron Island, WA

Version 3.4
NOTICE
3/30/2021 -- ANZ330 has been split into ANZ331 and ANZ332. Click EDIT in Marine Forecast and select your new zone.
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 7:36AMSunset 6:12PM Thursday October 21, 2021 1:36 PM PDT (20:36 UTC) Moonrise 5:54PMMoonset 7:39AM Illumination 99% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 16 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PZZ135 Puget Sound And Hood Canal- 1204 Pm Pdt Thu Oct 21 2021
.small craft advisory in effect through late tonight...
Rest of today..SE wind 5 to 15 kt. Wind waves 2 to 4 ft. A chance of rain.
Tonight..S wind 5 to 15 kt. Wind waves 3 to 5 ft. Rain in the evening then a chance of rain after midnight.
Fri..S wind 5 to 15 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less. Rain in the morning then showers and a slight chance of tstms in the afternoon.
Fri night..S wind 5 to 15 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less.
Sat..S wind 10 to 20 kt rising to 15 to 25 kt in the afternoon. Wind waves 2 to 4 ft.
Sat night..S wind 5 to 15 kt becoming se after midnight. Wind waves 2 ft or less.
Sun..Variable wind to 10 kt becoming S 5 to 15 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less building to 2 to 4 ft.
Mon..S wind 5 to 15 kt. Wind waves 1 ft or less.
PZZ100 1204 Pm Pdt Thu Oct 21 2021
Synopsis for the northern and central washington coastal and inland waters..A series of strong frontal systems will continue to cross the waters over the next several days. The first will cross the waters today, followed by another one Saturday. A potentially significant storm and likely the strongest of the series arrives on Sunday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Ketron Island, WA
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location: 47.18, -122.66     debug


Area Discussion for - Seattle, WA
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FXUS66 KSEW 211709 AFDSEW

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Seattle WA 1009 AM PDT Thu Oct 21 2021

UPDATE. Overall, the forecast this morning remains largely on track. A cold front will move across western Washington today, bringing breezy winds to the region - with the strongest winds expected to be along the coast. Latest radar imagery this morning shows rain starting to make its way inland along the coast. Expect rain to continue to push inland, making its way into the interior by late this afternoon and continuing into the evening, before tapering to showers overnight. The previous discussion follows, with updates made to the aviation and marine sections. 14

SYNOPSIS. The second of the series of systems will be making its way through the Western Washington area today. Widespread rain and windy conditions at the coast (breezy elsewhere) expected. Unsettled weather with a slight chance of thunderstorms possible Friday. Frontal system number three will move through at the start of the weekend. System number four will begin its approach towards the area Sunday, this one is looking to be the strongest of this most recent series but there is still some uncertainty associated with it. More systems will be on the way through next week.

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY/. The second of a series of frontal systems will make its way through the area today. The center of the low the fronts are associated is well offshore and will be tracking north. However, the pressure gradient is strong enough that breezy easterly winds are expected through this morning. With Western Whatcom, Skagit, San Juans as well as through the Cascade gaps being the breeziest locations. Winds along the coast will be stronger with gusts up to 40 mph likely, a wind advisory has been issued for this area. Winds will become southerly ahead of the cold front later this afternoon before easing during the overnight. Rain associated with this system will begin this morning at the coast and is not expected to reach the interior until this afternoon. Rainfall will be heavy at times, with highest rainfall expected in the Olympics and in Southern portions of the CWA.

The cold front with this system will move through the area late Thursday/early Friday with unsettled showery weather continuing. There is the chance of some thunderstorms offshore and along the coast during the morning hours, and then South of the Sound during the afternoon. Thunderstorm potential is very marginal, with a decent amount of CAPE (for W WA in October), but the wind shear will dictate if any storms form or not. Showers will gradually taper off through the afternoon, but not much of a break in dry weather is expected as the next system approaches Saturday.

System number three is looking to be the least impactful and should move through the area with relative ease. This system will bring more widespread rain to the area and breezy conditions near the area waters. Once this system passes in the afternoon, snow levels are expected to drop down to 4000-4500 feet.

Butwin

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/. Active weather will continue through next week as there is not much change in the overall weather pattern. The fourth in our series of weather systems is expected to be off the Washington coast Sunday. Ensemble guidance does suggest that this will be the strongest of systems in our series and will once again bring widespread rain, and breezy to windy conditions throughout Western Washington. The uncertainty in this system lies in its track. Some deterministic models show this system moving northward, while others have it progressing east toward our coast. This system will likely bring snow to the passes as the fronts move through. Monday will remain unsettled as we experience the back end of system number four. More frontal systems are expected Tuesday and Wednesday.

Butwin

AVIATION. VFR conditions across most of the region with broken to overcast high cloud deck. Clouds increase with lowering ceilings as rain associated with the front pushes inland through the afternoon. Meanwhile, expect continued breezy southerly winds with gusts around 20 kt at many terminals this afternoon

KSEA . VFR into this afternoon with broken to overcast high clouds. Winds become east or southeast and increase this afternoon and evening with gusts to 20 kt. Steady rain and low VFR to MVFR ceilings likely arrive after 00z ahead of the front, with winds shifting and easing overnight and lingering showers through much of Friday. Cullen

MARINE. The next in a series of frontal systems will continue to spread across the waters today, bring another round of strong winds and building seas. Expect continued gales over the coastal waters with developing advisory strength winds over the interior marine zones today. Winds will gradually ease overnight tonight into Friday morning in the wake of the frontal system.

Another front crosses the waters Saturday, but likely not as strong as today's. A potentially very strong system may trek towards the area for Sunday, which may bring high winds to the waters, along with hazardous seas and more heavy rain. Some uncertainty still remains in regards to the track and strength of this system, but all marine interests should monitor this part of the forecast very closely in the coming days. Lingering impacts from Sunday's storm are likely to carry into Monday. An active pattern will then continue through much of next week.

Swells will increase out of the S/SW today to between roughly 11-13 feet, bringing hazardous seas to offshore/coastal waters. This will also affect Grays Harbor Bar. Seas will continue to increase for Friday, with wave heights around 15-17 feet. Seas will subside a bit on Saturday back towards 10 feet but then have the potential to build back significantly on Sunday-potentially above 20 feet. Again, some uncertainty remains in the exact track and intensity of the storm.

Kovacik/Cullen

HYDROLOGY. A fairly active weather pattern over W WA for much of the forecast period will lead to increased flow in area rivers. While precip amounts are not expected to trigger flooding on most rivers, this will be an instance where the Skokomish River will need to be monitored. Current forecast has the Skok entering Action stage Friday and as precip continues into the weekend, river levels may approach flood stage by the middle of next week. Obviously, the amount of precip actually received is going to play a big role in how quickly river levels rise, but with few breaks in the rain expected, the cumulative impact may result in flooding by the second half of next week. 18

SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. WA . Wind Advisory until midnight PDT tonight for Central Coast-North Coast.

PZ . Gale Warning until 5 AM PDT Friday for Coastal Waters From Cape Flattery To James Island 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters From Cape Flattery To James Island Out 10 Nm-Coastal Waters From James Island To Point Grenville 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters From James Island To Point Grenville Out 10 Nm-Coastal Waters From Point Grenville To Cape Shoalwater 10 To 60 Nm- Coastal Waters From Point Grenville To Cape Shoalwater Out 10 Nm.

Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM PDT Friday for Admiralty Inlet- East Entrance U.S. Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca-Grays Harbor Bar-Northern Inland Waters Including The San Juan Islands.

Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM PDT Friday for Central U.S. Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca-Puget Sound and Hood Canal- West Entrance U.S. Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca.



www.weather.gov/seattle


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
TCMW1 - 9446482 - Tacoma Met, WA 14 mi54 min WSW 1G2.9
TCNW1 - 9446484 - Tacoma, WA 14 mi54 min 55°F1008.7 hPa
WPOW1 - West Point, WA 35 mi36 min SSE 15G17 66°F 1007.5 hPa (-2.5)43°F

Wind History for Tacoma MET, WA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Fort Lewis / Gray U. S. Army Airfield, WA8 mi98 minNE 510.00 miMostly Cloudy64°F44°F48%1008.4 hPa
Tacoma, Tacoma Narrows Airport, WA8 mi43 minVar 310.00 miFair63°F43°F48%1007.9 hPa
Tacoma / McChord Air Force Base, WA10 mi38 minESE 610.00 miOvercast67°F46°F46%1008.4 hPa
Olympia, Olympia Airport, WA19 mi42 minN 410.00 miOvercast58°F47°F67%1007.8 hPa
Pierce County-Thun Field, WA20 mi41 minVar 510.00 miFair68°F43°F40%1008.5 hPa
Bremerton, Bremerton National Airport, WA22 mi40 minW 310.00 miMostly Cloudy59°F49°F69%1008.9 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KGRF

Wind History from GRF (wind in knots)
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SE8SE4E3E3SE4E3E7E3E3NE30N30NE300NE5NE3NE4NE5NE5E11
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2 days agoNW40SW4SW3S3SE3E3SE30000SE3--000SE5S4000SW3W4

Tide / Current Tables for Yoman Point, Anderson Island, Washington
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Yoman Point
Click for Map
Thu -- 12:41 AM PDT     0.74 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 07:13 AM PDT     12.79 feet High Tide
Thu -- 07:38 AM PDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 08:39 AM PDT     Moonset
Thu -- 12:53 PM PDT     4.63 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 06:11 PM PDT     Sunset
Thu -- 06:22 PM PDT     12.72 feet High Tide
Thu -- 06:53 PM PDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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Tide / Current Tables for Balch Passage, Washington Current
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Balch Passage
Click for Map
Thu -- 12:52 AM PDT     0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 02:48 AM PDT     1.58 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 06:47 AM PDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 07:38 AM PDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 08:39 AM PDT     Moonset
Thu -- 09:54 AM PDT     -2.28 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 01:18 PM PDT     0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 02:51 PM PDT     1.17 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 06:11 PM PDT     Sunset
Thu -- 06:13 PM PDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 06:53 PM PDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 09:38 PM PDT     -2.85 knots Max Ebb
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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NOTE: This section has been updated as of 1/26/2021. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may use the EDIT function to update your location.
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