Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Bena, MN
May 18, 2024 9:43 PM CDT (02:43 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 5:28 AM Sunset 8:47 PM Moonrise 2:56 PM Moonset 2:36 AM |
FXUS63 KDLH 182336 AFDDLH
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Duluth MN 636 PM CDT Sat May 18 2024
MESOSCALE
Issued at 452 PM CDT Sat May 18 2024
Quick update on the storms as we're about halfway through this short-duration severe weather event. We have received a few reports of hail thus far in northwest Wisconsin, ranging from dime to quarter size. In Wisconsin, cells have been largely discrete, and are now showing some signs of congealing into a somewhat organized line in Iron/Price counties. As these storms exit the region to the east over the next hour, hail will remain the primary threat, but couldn't rule out some gusty winds as well. Storms may backbuild a little bit behind the initial line as there's still plenty of instability present out ahead of the cold front, which is still working its way through Douglas/Burnett/Washburn counties. But, instability should pretty quickly fall off over the next hour or two.
Storms over the Arrowhead have been less impressive, which isn't surprising with less instability overall there. A few cells have popped up around the lake breeze boundary and are moving towards Canada. There will still be a threat for some large hail mainly for the next hour or so, but the threat is starting to decrease overall as the cold front advances.
KEY MESSAGES
- Isolated to scattered strong to severe storms in the Arrowhead and northwest Wisconsin this afternoon. Hail up to 1.5" in diameter and wind gusts to 60 mph possible.
- Short dry spell Saturday night and Sunday morning before our active weather pattern returns next week with multiple periods of rain through the week.
DISCUSSION
Issued at 348 PM CDT Sat May 18 2024
We're still expecting a threat for severe weather through about 7 PM this afternoon. Current observations out ahead of the cold front in northwest Wisconsin are pretty warm and moist; temperatures hovering near 80 degrees and dew points in the 50s to low 60s. One caveat has been some fairly robust stratocumulus coverage, but this is starting to erode over Douglas/Burnett/Washburn counties. We're starting to see a couple cells pop up along the lake breeze boundary over in Bayfield/Ashland counties. In the Arrowhead, conditions are cooler but nonetheless instability is building out ahead of the front. Around or slightly above 1000 J/kg of SBCAPE is out there, and we're looking at favorable 0-6km wind shear from 40-50 kt as well. It is now a waiting game for the cap to bust everywhere, and once it does, storms should fire pretty quickly. We will be looking at a pretty short window where strong to severe storms will be possible until about 7 PM when the cold front clears the region. Until then, discrete cells will largely be favored, which will keep large hail as the primary threat (up to around 1.5" in diameter, though it wouldn't be surprising to get a report or two a little larger than that). Could see wind gusts to 60 mph as well, and perhaps 70 mph which would be more likely (if it happens at all) further east (Iron/Price counties) where storms may start to consolidate. The risk for tornadoes remains very low, but a brief spinup couldn't be ruled out, again mainly in Iron/Price counties.
As the cold front passes through by around 7 PM, the storm threat is expected to quickly diminish, leading to a quiet night. On Sunday, another low pressure system will approach from the southwest and bring more rain to the region as early as Sunday afternoon. This will mainly be a synoptically-forced rain, but a few embedded rumbles of thunder can't be ruled out.
This will be a fairly quick-moving system ending on Monday, so heavy rain amounts are not expected. Totals generally around or less than an inch with heavier amounts more likely in northwest Wisconsin.
Another potentially larger system is looking likely to make its way into the region Tuesday into Wednesday, and model ensembles with this one suggest some pretty hefty rainfall amounts may be possible. We could be looking at fairly widespread totals around an inch or two, and perhaps locally higher. This will be another situation where, right now, the convective threat appears low, but the main threat will be localized minor flooding with some of these higher rainfall amounts. Depending on the storm track, rainfall amounts and convective potential could go up or down from where they're at now. The active pattern looks to continue through the end of the week with more rain chances.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/
Issued at 635 PM CDT Sat May 18 2024
Strong westerly winds occurring late this afternoon following a cold frontal passage are expected to ease later this evening. Expect VFR conditions through the period. Cloud cover increases tomorrow afternoon ahead of approaching low pressure with scattered showers possible in BRD towards the end of the 00z TAF period.
MARINE /FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/
Issued at 348 PM CDT Sat May 18 2024
Winds are expected to shift to west to southwesterly this afternoon as a cold front passes through, and gusty winds from 20 to 25 knots are expected around the head of the lake through this early evening as that happens. Another threat will be isolated to scattered storms that could be strong to severe through about 7 PM with large hail to 1.5" in diameter and wind gusts to around 50 kt possible. Winds become lighter through Sunday and Sunday night following the cold front. Wind direction will become northeasterly again ahead of low pressure going into Monday.
For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.
DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...None.
WI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM CDT this evening for LSZ121- 144>148-150.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Duluth MN 636 PM CDT Sat May 18 2024
MESOSCALE
Issued at 452 PM CDT Sat May 18 2024
Quick update on the storms as we're about halfway through this short-duration severe weather event. We have received a few reports of hail thus far in northwest Wisconsin, ranging from dime to quarter size. In Wisconsin, cells have been largely discrete, and are now showing some signs of congealing into a somewhat organized line in Iron/Price counties. As these storms exit the region to the east over the next hour, hail will remain the primary threat, but couldn't rule out some gusty winds as well. Storms may backbuild a little bit behind the initial line as there's still plenty of instability present out ahead of the cold front, which is still working its way through Douglas/Burnett/Washburn counties. But, instability should pretty quickly fall off over the next hour or two.
Storms over the Arrowhead have been less impressive, which isn't surprising with less instability overall there. A few cells have popped up around the lake breeze boundary and are moving towards Canada. There will still be a threat for some large hail mainly for the next hour or so, but the threat is starting to decrease overall as the cold front advances.
KEY MESSAGES
- Isolated to scattered strong to severe storms in the Arrowhead and northwest Wisconsin this afternoon. Hail up to 1.5" in diameter and wind gusts to 60 mph possible.
- Short dry spell Saturday night and Sunday morning before our active weather pattern returns next week with multiple periods of rain through the week.
DISCUSSION
Issued at 348 PM CDT Sat May 18 2024
We're still expecting a threat for severe weather through about 7 PM this afternoon. Current observations out ahead of the cold front in northwest Wisconsin are pretty warm and moist; temperatures hovering near 80 degrees and dew points in the 50s to low 60s. One caveat has been some fairly robust stratocumulus coverage, but this is starting to erode over Douglas/Burnett/Washburn counties. We're starting to see a couple cells pop up along the lake breeze boundary over in Bayfield/Ashland counties. In the Arrowhead, conditions are cooler but nonetheless instability is building out ahead of the front. Around or slightly above 1000 J/kg of SBCAPE is out there, and we're looking at favorable 0-6km wind shear from 40-50 kt as well. It is now a waiting game for the cap to bust everywhere, and once it does, storms should fire pretty quickly. We will be looking at a pretty short window where strong to severe storms will be possible until about 7 PM when the cold front clears the region. Until then, discrete cells will largely be favored, which will keep large hail as the primary threat (up to around 1.5" in diameter, though it wouldn't be surprising to get a report or two a little larger than that). Could see wind gusts to 60 mph as well, and perhaps 70 mph which would be more likely (if it happens at all) further east (Iron/Price counties) where storms may start to consolidate. The risk for tornadoes remains very low, but a brief spinup couldn't be ruled out, again mainly in Iron/Price counties.
As the cold front passes through by around 7 PM, the storm threat is expected to quickly diminish, leading to a quiet night. On Sunday, another low pressure system will approach from the southwest and bring more rain to the region as early as Sunday afternoon. This will mainly be a synoptically-forced rain, but a few embedded rumbles of thunder can't be ruled out.
This will be a fairly quick-moving system ending on Monday, so heavy rain amounts are not expected. Totals generally around or less than an inch with heavier amounts more likely in northwest Wisconsin.
Another potentially larger system is looking likely to make its way into the region Tuesday into Wednesday, and model ensembles with this one suggest some pretty hefty rainfall amounts may be possible. We could be looking at fairly widespread totals around an inch or two, and perhaps locally higher. This will be another situation where, right now, the convective threat appears low, but the main threat will be localized minor flooding with some of these higher rainfall amounts. Depending on the storm track, rainfall amounts and convective potential could go up or down from where they're at now. The active pattern looks to continue through the end of the week with more rain chances.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/
Issued at 635 PM CDT Sat May 18 2024
Strong westerly winds occurring late this afternoon following a cold frontal passage are expected to ease later this evening. Expect VFR conditions through the period. Cloud cover increases tomorrow afternoon ahead of approaching low pressure with scattered showers possible in BRD towards the end of the 00z TAF period.
MARINE /FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/
Issued at 348 PM CDT Sat May 18 2024
Winds are expected to shift to west to southwesterly this afternoon as a cold front passes through, and gusty winds from 20 to 25 knots are expected around the head of the lake through this early evening as that happens. Another threat will be isolated to scattered storms that could be strong to severe through about 7 PM with large hail to 1.5" in diameter and wind gusts to around 50 kt possible. Winds become lighter through Sunday and Sunday night following the cold front. Wind direction will become northeasterly again ahead of low pressure going into Monday.
For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.
DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...None.
WI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM CDT this evening for LSZ121- 144>148-150.
| Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Temp | DewPt | RH | inHg |
| KXVG LONGVILLE MUNI,MN | 24 sm | 10 min | WSW 04 | 10 sm | Clear | 57°F | 39°F | 51% | 29.83 |
Duluth, MN,
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