Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Bena, MN
May 20, 2024 6:02 AM CDT (11:02 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 5:26 AM Sunset 8:50 PM Moonrise 5:10 PM Moonset 3:04 AM |
FXUS63 KDLH 200944 AFDDLH
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Duluth MN 444 AM CDT Mon May 20 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- Rain with embedded thunderstorms continue to move across the area through today. Total rainfall accumulations around 0.25" to 0.50"; locally higher amounts possible.
- A larger spring system brings even more rain Tuesday through Wednesday with totals >1" likely for many areas. There could be some strong to severe storms on Tuesday as well.
- A little drier weather to end the week, but rain chances will persist into the weekend.
DISCUSSION
Issued at 442 AM CDT Mon May 20 2024
A wave of showers and isolated thunderstorms is moving across the area this morning as our first wave of precipitation expected this week. This is associated with a weak shortwave in combination with a surge of moisture and is ahead of an inverted trough at the surface. Plenty of isentropic lift going on this morning. Total rainfall amounts should range between 1 and 4 tenths of an inch, with a large portion of the Northland getting at least a quarter inch of rainfall by this evening. Once this band of precipitation moves out of the area this afternoon and evening, we should get a short break in the active weather tonight.
Tuesday into Wednesday is the most concerning time range, as a much stronger upper level shortwave ejects out of a broader upper level trough over the Rockies and develops a surface low over western Kansas late tonight which drives northeast across the western Great Lakes Tuesday night. This much stronger system will combine with another surge of Gulf moisture to produce a period of very busy weather for the Northland Tuesday through Wednesday. Tuesday evening we should develop a narrow window of instability with sufficient shear to produce strong to severe storms Tuesday afternoon and evening, mainly over northwest Wisconsin. For now it appears damaging winds and large hail are our main risk, but depending on how the boundary layer develops we could also have a tornado risk as well. SPC has kept the slight risk of severe weather on the day 2 outlook this morning.
This system is also likely to generate generous rainfall amounts with that Gulf moisture feed, and models are continuing to shows precipitable water values of over 1.25", which is 2 standard deviations above normal values. As of this morning, the event total rainfall for Tuesday through Wednesday evening has some areas approaching 3 inches of rainfall. No surprise that WPC has kept us in a slight risk of excessive rainfall. This system exits the area Wendesday night, leaving us with some lingering shower activity into Thursday. We are also looking at some much cooler temperatures for Wednesday into Thursday, with highs both days down into the 50s to low 60s, which may be as much as 10 degrees below normal.
Our stretch of active weather continues into next weekend, with a signal for the broad upper level trough over the Rockies slowly shifting east over time, which should continue to push shortwaves in our direction. Given their scale, the models are not giving us a very clear signal for timing or track on any of these features, so it should be no surprise that there are chances for precipitation Friday through the weekend. However, I expect we will be able to narrow these down somewhat this week and be able to pick out some drier periods for outdoor activities. Temperatures should be near to below normal through the weekend.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/
Issued at 1257 AM CDT Mon May 20 2024
Rain with embedded thunderstorms is moving into the Northland this morning. As the rain spreads in, the currently VFR conditions will slowly deteriorate overnight, with all sites gradually lowering to IFR ceilings with MVFR visibilities, generally in the 11z through 21z time frame, with approximately 6-9 hours of these lowered ceilings for each terminal. KDLH may have IFR visibilities as well with wind flow off Lake Superior.
Visibilities improve during the afternoon as the rain moves out, with improving ceilings a few hours later. Ceilings and visibilities may deteriorate once again after 04z as east winds increase once again and another round of showers and thunderstorms move towards the area.
MARINE /FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/
Issued at 442 AM CDT Mon May 20 2024
Rain with embedded thunderstorms is moving into the Northland this morning. As the rain spreads in, the currently VFR conditions will slowly deteriorate overnight, with all sites gradually lowering to IFR ceilings with MVFR visibilities, generally in the 11z through 21z time frame, with approximately 6-9 hours of these lowered ceilings for each terminal. KDLH may have IFR visibilities as well with wind flow off Lake Superior.
Visibilities improve during the afternoon as the rain moves out, with improving ceilings a few hours later. Ceilings and visibilities may deteriorate once again after 04z as east winds increase once again and another round of showers and thunderstorms move towards the area.
For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.
DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...None.
WI...None.
MARINE...Gale Watch from Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday evening for LSZ140>146-150.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Duluth MN 444 AM CDT Mon May 20 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- Rain with embedded thunderstorms continue to move across the area through today. Total rainfall accumulations around 0.25" to 0.50"; locally higher amounts possible.
- A larger spring system brings even more rain Tuesday through Wednesday with totals >1" likely for many areas. There could be some strong to severe storms on Tuesday as well.
- A little drier weather to end the week, but rain chances will persist into the weekend.
DISCUSSION
Issued at 442 AM CDT Mon May 20 2024
A wave of showers and isolated thunderstorms is moving across the area this morning as our first wave of precipitation expected this week. This is associated with a weak shortwave in combination with a surge of moisture and is ahead of an inverted trough at the surface. Plenty of isentropic lift going on this morning. Total rainfall amounts should range between 1 and 4 tenths of an inch, with a large portion of the Northland getting at least a quarter inch of rainfall by this evening. Once this band of precipitation moves out of the area this afternoon and evening, we should get a short break in the active weather tonight.
Tuesday into Wednesday is the most concerning time range, as a much stronger upper level shortwave ejects out of a broader upper level trough over the Rockies and develops a surface low over western Kansas late tonight which drives northeast across the western Great Lakes Tuesday night. This much stronger system will combine with another surge of Gulf moisture to produce a period of very busy weather for the Northland Tuesday through Wednesday. Tuesday evening we should develop a narrow window of instability with sufficient shear to produce strong to severe storms Tuesday afternoon and evening, mainly over northwest Wisconsin. For now it appears damaging winds and large hail are our main risk, but depending on how the boundary layer develops we could also have a tornado risk as well. SPC has kept the slight risk of severe weather on the day 2 outlook this morning.
This system is also likely to generate generous rainfall amounts with that Gulf moisture feed, and models are continuing to shows precipitable water values of over 1.25", which is 2 standard deviations above normal values. As of this morning, the event total rainfall for Tuesday through Wednesday evening has some areas approaching 3 inches of rainfall. No surprise that WPC has kept us in a slight risk of excessive rainfall. This system exits the area Wendesday night, leaving us with some lingering shower activity into Thursday. We are also looking at some much cooler temperatures for Wednesday into Thursday, with highs both days down into the 50s to low 60s, which may be as much as 10 degrees below normal.
Our stretch of active weather continues into next weekend, with a signal for the broad upper level trough over the Rockies slowly shifting east over time, which should continue to push shortwaves in our direction. Given their scale, the models are not giving us a very clear signal for timing or track on any of these features, so it should be no surprise that there are chances for precipitation Friday through the weekend. However, I expect we will be able to narrow these down somewhat this week and be able to pick out some drier periods for outdoor activities. Temperatures should be near to below normal through the weekend.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/
Issued at 1257 AM CDT Mon May 20 2024
Rain with embedded thunderstorms is moving into the Northland this morning. As the rain spreads in, the currently VFR conditions will slowly deteriorate overnight, with all sites gradually lowering to IFR ceilings with MVFR visibilities, generally in the 11z through 21z time frame, with approximately 6-9 hours of these lowered ceilings for each terminal. KDLH may have IFR visibilities as well with wind flow off Lake Superior.
Visibilities improve during the afternoon as the rain moves out, with improving ceilings a few hours later. Ceilings and visibilities may deteriorate once again after 04z as east winds increase once again and another round of showers and thunderstorms move towards the area.
MARINE /FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/
Issued at 442 AM CDT Mon May 20 2024
Rain with embedded thunderstorms is moving into the Northland this morning. As the rain spreads in, the currently VFR conditions will slowly deteriorate overnight, with all sites gradually lowering to IFR ceilings with MVFR visibilities, generally in the 11z through 21z time frame, with approximately 6-9 hours of these lowered ceilings for each terminal. KDLH may have IFR visibilities as well with wind flow off Lake Superior.
Visibilities improve during the afternoon as the rain moves out, with improving ceilings a few hours later. Ceilings and visibilities may deteriorate once again after 04z as east winds increase once again and another round of showers and thunderstorms move towards the area.
For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.
DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...None.
WI...None.
MARINE...Gale Watch from Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday evening for LSZ140>146-150.
| Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Temp | DewPt | RH | inHg |
| KXVG LONGVILLE MUNI,MN | 24 sm | 29 min | calm | 10 sm | Overcast | 54°F | 52°F | 94% | 29.82 |
Duluth, MN,
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