Sunrise 6:38 AM   Sunset 8:55 PM Moonrise 12:00 AM   Moonset 7:15 AM

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LSZ244 /o.con.kmqt.ma.w.0056.000000t0000z-231005t2115z/ 458 Pm Edt Thu Oct 5 2023
.a special marine warning remains in effect until 515 pm edt - .
for the following areas - . Eagle river to manitou island mi - . Lake superior east of a line from manitou island to marquette mi and west of a line from grand marais mi to the us/canadian border beyond 5nm from shore - . Lake superior from upper entrance to portage canal to manitou island mi 5nm off shore to the us/canadian border - . Manitou island to point isabelle mi - .
at 457 pm edt, a severe Thunderstorm capable of producing waterspouts was located near brockway mountain, or 28 nm northwest of stannard rock, moving northeast at 40 knots.
hazard - .waterspouts, wind gusts 34 knots or greater, and small hail.
source - .radar indicated.
impact - .waterspouts can easily overturn boats and create locally hazardous seas. Small craft could be damaged in briefly higher winds and suddenly higher waves.
locations impacted include - . Manitou island.
precautionary/preparedness actions - .
move to safe harbor until hazardous weather passes.
Thunderstorms can produce sudden waterspouts. Waterspouts can easily overturn boats and create locally hazardous seas. SEek safe harbor immediately.
&&
lat - .lon 4763 8760 4743 8747 4732 8786 4749 8801 4766 8762 time - .mot - .loc 2057z 241deg 40kt 4745 8781
waterspout - .possible hail - .<.75in wind - .>34kts

LSZ200
No data

FXUS63 KMQT 280008 AFDMQT

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Marquette MI 808 PM EDT Sat Apr 27 2024

KEY MESSAGES

- Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms this afternoon.
- Breezy this afternoon into early this evening with 35-40 mph gusts expected, strongest gusts this afternoon south central and early this evening over Keweenaw and eastern shoreline.
- Active pattern continues as 3-4 low pressure systems track across the region over the next week. Above normal temps/precip are expected including thunderstorm chances.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
Issued at 329 PM EDT Sat Apr 27 2024

Water vapor imagery and RAP analysis show a vort max/shortwave near Thunder Bay, ON tracking ne. At the sfc, weakening low pres associated with the shortwave wave is analyzed over and just e of the Keweenaw. Ahead of these features, clusters of sct shra are occurring into the Upper Great Lakes this afternoon. Maybe a rumble of thunder could be possible in areas of partial clearing central UP but fcst soundings suggest mid-level warming/drying will be a big inhibitor, especially by 21Z this afternoon when any t-storm threat will probably be gone. Current temps across Upper MI generally range from the upper 40s in low clouds and cool onshore southerly flow near Lake Mi southeast to lower to mid 70s into southern Dickinson and Menominee counties in warm southwest flow and some cloud breaks there. Most locations range from the mid 50s to mid 60s. Mixing through 4-6 kft has also allowed for southwest winds to gust around 35 mph into south central areas. As the sfc low continues to track ne across northern Lake Superior through early evening, moist wraparound upslope flow on the backside of the low will continue to support scattered showers into western counties early evening.
Elsewhere, any lingering isolated showers should die out near sunset.

A 5-7 mb 3-hr pres rise max tracking across northwest Upper Mi and south central Lake Superior and favorably aligned along the gradient wind could provide an isallobaric boost to westerly winds and gusts late afternoon into early evening across these areas, particularly across the Keweenaw Peninsula where brief gusts near 35- 40 mph could be possible. Brief west gale gusts to 35 knots may also be possible into south central areas of the lake late afternoon/early evening.

Winds veering to the north-northeast on the backside of the low later tonight will maintain mostly cloudy skies across the area but increasingly anticyclonic low-level flow through the night should result in dry conditions. Min temps tonight will range from the mid 30s west and north central to the lower 40s south central and east.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
Issued at 456 PM EDT Sat Apr 27 2024

The extended forecast period will be active with fairly good agreement in the model guidance through Wednesday. Even though the guidance begins to diverge into the latter part of next week, the consensus on a wet and active pattern holds true.

Sunday will start off dry with a high pressure over northern Ontario and the negatively tilted trough over NE and KS. During the day, the trough lifts northeast toward the Upper Midwest and the associated sfc low tracks from KS to IA. Weak WAA and isentropic ascent ahead of the low will try to increase showers from the south, however the drier northeast flow looks to slow this down and limit showers to the south central in the afternoon. Showers overspread the UP Sunday night as the trough moves into MN and the sfc low lifts north- northeast bringing better forcing and a ~45kt LLJ over the UP. There could be some rumbles of thunder in the south central Sunday night.
Some breezy east winds are expected to mix down from the LLJ with gusts up to 35 mph, especially in the eastern UP and Keweenaw Sunday night through Monday morning. The trough then pivots northeast over the UP on Monday reinvigorating the showers and possibly providing enough forcing for some weaker thunderstorms. That being said, strong storms are not expected as instability is limited with spotty MUCAPE around 200j/kg, the inversion in model soundings is fairly strong, and mid level lapse rates are mostly below 6C/km. PWATs highlight a surge of ample moisture off the Gulf of Mexico, bringing up to 1" to the UP Monday morning, which is noted above the NAEFS 90th percentile for Sunday night into Monday. This should bring a good soaking to the UP with 0.5" to 1.5" of rain by Monday night and help alleviate fire weather concerns for the next few days.

Showers lift north out of the UP Monday night as the trough and sfc low lift over Lake Superior, temporarily bringing dry weather back to the UP for Tuesday and diminishing winds. WAA during the day accompanied by clearing skies will bring above normal highs in the 50s near Lake Superior and in the far east with 60s elsewhere. The dry weather is quickly replaced Tuesday evening as a shortwave races across the Plains, passing over the Upper Great Lakes Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. The sfc low associated with this shortwave looks to pass northeast through MN into northern Ontario bringing a round of showers Tuesday night into Wednesday. Instability again is fairly low, so only a few rumbles of thunder are expected at this time.

Dry weather looks to follow for Wednesday with some breezy west winds behind the low pressure system's cold front. Current NBM probabilities of wind gusts exceeding 40 mph is around 15-30%, so expected gusts are around 25-35mph. Uncertainty begins to grow in the forecast for the rest of the week, but chances for precip increase toward the end of the week as we track out the next low pressure system or two to move through the Great Lakes.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/
Issued at 808 PM EDT Sat Apr 27 2024

Poor flying conditions to continue in west-northwest flow as moisture wraps around departing low pressure system. IWD will consistently remain at IFR/LIFR levels in the upsloping. Meanwhile, LIFR at CMX will gradually improve to IFR early tonight and eventually MVFR by early Sunday morning. SAW, on the other hand, will be on a downward trend from VFR this evening to MVFR and then IFR/LIFR early tonight. In addition, west-northwest winds will gust up to 24 kts through this evening at CMX and SAW.



MARINE
Issued at 456 PM EDT Sat Apr 27 2024

A few west gale force gusts to 35 kt are possible for a brief period late this afternoon into the evening across eastern Lake Superior as the low pressure moves northeast into northern Ontario. Winds back northeasterly late tonight into Sunday as the next system approaches from the southwest. Northeast gales up to 40 kt are expected across the far western lake Sunday afternoon with northeast becoming easterly gales to 40 kts spreading across the entire lake Sunday night. While a few gusts may exceed 40 kts Sunday night into Monday, highest probabilities are on the low end (25-45%). The strongest winds are expected in the far east as well as the north central portion of the lake between the Keweenaw and Isle Royale where there could be some channeling. Gales quickly diminish Monday afternoon as the low pressure tracks across western Lake Superior Monday night.
The Gale Watch has been upgraded to a Gale Warning, now starting at 18z Sunday in the far west (3z Monday elsewhere) and ending at 21z Monday.

During the gale event, waves will be highest from Duluth Harbor to the Bayfield Peninsula, with significant wave heights up to 14 ft possible Monday morning. Wave heights Monday morning around Isle Royale will also be higher, up to 13 ft. Waves across the lake fall below 8 ft Monday evening. There also is a slight chance for thunderstorms on Monday.

Winds fall below 20 kts Monday night, mainly remaining below until Wednesday morning.

MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
Upper Michigan...
None.
Lake Superior...
Gale Warning from 2 PM EDT /1 PM CDT/ Sunday to 5 PM EDT /4 PM CDT/ Monday for LSZ162.

Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM EDT /2 PM CDT/ Sunday to 8 AM EDT /7 AM CDT/ Monday for LSZ241.

Small Craft Advisory from 3 AM Sunday to 8 AM EDT Monday for LSZ242.

Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM to 11 PM EDT Sunday for LSZ243.

Gale Warning from 11 PM Sunday to 5 PM EDT Monday for LSZ243>246-263>266.

Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EDT Sunday for LSZ244-245.

Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for LSZ248.

Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Monday for LSZ249>251.

Lake Michigan...
Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM EDT Sunday for LMZ248-250.

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