Thursday, October28, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Copper Harbor, MI

Version 3.4
NOTICE
3/30/2021 -- ANZ330 has been split into ANZ331 and ANZ332. Click EDIT in Marine Forecast and select your new zone.
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 8:24AMSunset 6:42PM Thursday October 28, 2021 5:29 PM EDT (21:29 UTC) Moonrise 11:30PMMoonset 2:50PM Illumination 45% Phase: Third Quarter Moon; Moon at 23 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LSZ244 511 Am Edt Fri Sep 17 2021
.a strong Thunderstorm over the waters... The areas affected include... Eagle river to manitou island mi... Lake superior east of a line from manitou island to marquette mi and west of a line from grand marais mi to the us/canadian border beyond 5nm from shore... Lake superior west of line from manitou island to marquette mi beyond 5nm from shore... Manitou island to point isabelle mi... At 511 am edt, doppler radar indicated a strong Thunderstorm, capable of producing winds to around 30 knots and small hail. This Thunderstorm was located near manitou island, or 17 nm northwest of stannard rock, moving northeast at 45 knots. Precautionary/preparedness actions... Mariners can expect gusty winds to around 30 knots, locally higher waves, and lightning strikes. Boaters should seek safe harbor immediately until this storm passes. && lat...lon 4761 8664 4760 8664 4724 8757 4739 8772 4776 8700
LSZ244 Expires:202109171000;;757288 FZUS73 KMQT 170911 MWSMQT Marine Weather Statement National Weather Service Marquette MI 511 AM EDT Fri Sep 17 2021 LSZ244-245-265-266-171000-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Copper Harbor, MI
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location: 47.51, -87.89     debug


Area Discussion for - Marquette, MI
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FXUS63 KMQT 282006 AFDMQT

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Marquette MI Issued by National Weather Service Gaylord MI 406 PM EDT Thu Oct 28 2021

SHORT TERM. (This evening through Friday) Issued at 406 PM EDT THU OCT 28 2021

Pattern synopsis/forecast: 19z surface analysis showed a 993mb low center over southeast Missouri . surface reflection of a strong upper low for late October crossing the lower Mississippi Valley. Cyclonic flow around this feature just grazing Upper Michigan . with more of a col/deformation axis setting up between the deep low and a short wave trough moving through Manitoba. Still a good bit of cloud cover across Upper Michigan at mid afternoon through there have been thin spots and some partial sunshine across central and eastern Upper. Band of rainfall wrapping around the upper low rotating back across Illinois/ Iowa . with some light rain extending north into eastern Minnesota/northwest Wisconsin.

Split trough axis will work its way across the Great Lakes Friday . but the two main protagonists (northern branch energy and southern branch anomalous upper low) will bypass Michigan. Surface low passing south of the state will have some influence on boundary layer flow through Friday but weak-ish surface ridging slides into the area Saturday. Attention then turns to another short wave trough moving through the Canadian prairies/northern Plains for the end of the weekend . which will push a cold front across the Upper Peninsula later Saturday night into Sunday with a decent push of colder air behind it.

Primary forecast concerns: Upstream band of moisture across Minnesota will make a slow push into western Upper overnight into Friday morning. Northern branch energy will lift into northwest Ontario with time . and Upper Michigan ends up in a col region between the northern branch wave and the huge cyclone encompassing much of the eastern CONUS by Friday morning. Stronger forcing (e.g. jet entrance divergence/low-mid level frontogenesis) as a result also lifts northeast with time and moisture band eventually shears out across western Upper. So rain chances probably won't make it much farther east than MQT if that . and may start/end as some drizzle (perhaps aided by a weak lake component on Friday).

Next precipitation chance looks to be with the cold front Saturday night/Sunday . and best precip threat actually looks to be in the post-frontal cold air with lake convection. Have blended SREF PoPs with the NBM to try and account for this (SREF PoPs usually do quite well with lake convection . coverage tends to be overdone due to the resolution but it usually gets the right idea across). Sunday night precipitation may fall as snow across the interior higher terrain of western Upper.

LONG TERM. (Friday night through Thursday) Issued at 406 PM EDT THU OCT 28 2021

Cool start to November expected with mean troughing expected to run through the Great Lakes along with a couple of reinforcing short wave trough passages Tuesday and Wednesday. This means periods of instability showers enhanced by passing short wave troughs. Snow chances will be in the offing as well given anticipated magnitude of cold air (850mb temperatures in the -8C vicinity by Tuesday).

AVIATION. (For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon) Issued at 134 PM EDT THU OCT 28 2021

Anticipating that IFR conditions will return to IWD by mid afternoon and persist tonight into Friday morning with periods of light rain/drizzle/fog likely to bring visibilities down as well. CMX expected to stay MVFR through the afternoon with IFR conditions tonight into Friday morning. Persistent IFR at SAW into early this afternoon expected to improve to VFR in a couple of hours as thinning of the low overcast spreads into central Upper from the southeast. Expecting that VFR conditions will then prevail overnight.

MARINE. (For the 4 PM Lake Superior forecast issuance) Issued at 406 PM EDT THU OCT 28 2021

Winds are expected to gradually back around to more of a northerly direction overnight into Friday as a surface low tracks eastward out of southern Missouri this afternoon and into the Ohio Valley Friday. But stronger pressure gradient/winds will be found across Lakes Michigan/Huron on Friday. Winds will subside Friday night as influence of passing surface low wanes and a weak high pressure ridge builds into the upper Lakes. Winds not expected to increase substantially again until Saturday night into Sunday with cold advection and decreasing overwater stability with the passage of a cold front Winds will remain gusty into Monday. with Small Craft Advisory criteria likely exceeded within the nearshore waters.

MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. Upper Michigan . None. Lake Superior . None. Lake Michigan . None.

SHORT TERM . JPB LONG TERM . JPB AVIATION . JPB MARINE . JPB


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
KP59 3 mi39 min SE 4.1 53°F 1009.4 hPa49°F
GTRM4 - Superior Grand Traverse Bay, MI 29 mi90 min ESE 13G15 54°F 1009.1 hPa (-0.7)
45001 - MID SUPERIOR 60NM North Northeast Hancock, MI 38 mi40 min ESE 9.7G14 51°F 51°F2 ft1010.9 hPa47°F
STDM4 - Stannard Rock, MI 42 mi90 min E 11G12
45025 - South Entrance to Keweenaw Waterway, MI 46 mi30 min ESE 14G14 54°F 56°F2 ft1008.1 hPa (-0.4)51°F
BIGM4 - Big Bay, MI 48 mi50 min 0G5.1 54°F 1007.8 hPa

Wind History for Marquette C.G., MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Copper Harbor, MI4 mi39 minSE 4 mi53°F49°F86%1009.4 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KP59

Wind History from P59 (wind in knots)
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Last 24hr5S5S6
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5S3400003300S3SE4
1 day ago000SW3SW4W6W6SW5W5W5SW3S4SW3SW3S4SW4SW3S4S74S75S8
G16
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2 days agoNE7E7--E8E6------E7E5E4----E6E53E6--55NE4E3E6E5

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NOTE: This section has been updated as of 1/26/2021. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may use the EDIT function to update your location.
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