Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Polson, MT
May 19, 2024 11:42 PM MDT (05:42 UTC) Change Location
Sunrise 5:49 AM Sunset 9:17 PM Moonrise 4:25 PM Moonset 3:10 AM |
Area Discussion for - Missoula, MT
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FXUS65 KMSO 191950 AFDMSO
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Missoula MT 150 PM MDT Sun May 19 2024
MOUNTAIN PASS SNOW WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY
DISCUSSION
Water vapor satellite imagery reveals a trough and low-pressure center moving through the region, causing showers and isolated thunderstorms this afternoon. Showers are expected to decrease in coverage this evening. The trough will remain over the area on Monday, continuing the trend of below-average high temperatures. Radar projections indicate showers and isolated thunderstorms returning Monday afternoon due to instability aided by daytime heating.
Model guidance agrees that north-central Idaho and western Montana will be between troughs on Tuesday, leading to near- average temperatures and isolated afternoon showers.
For Wednesday and Thursday, the forecast is becoming more certain as model clusters converge on the path of a low-pressure system.
This system is expected to enter the region on Wednesday, producing widespread rain by the afternoon. While there are still some differences in the projected path of the low on Thursday, most models indicate continued widespread precipitation. Snow levels are forecast to drop to around 5,000-6,000 feet, potentially impacting travel over mountain passes on Thursday morning. There are even a few model members placing the low pressure center in a position favorable for snow in the valleys.
AVIATION
Radar and satellite loops this afternoon show a convective environment with showers and isolated thunderstorms developing and expanding in coverage. Stronger cells have produced gusts around 30 knots, brief heavy rain, and graupel or small hail. Radar projections indicate that showers and thunderstorms will linger into the evening and return Monday afternoon.
MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MT...None.
ID...None.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Missoula MT 150 PM MDT Sun May 19 2024
MOUNTAIN PASS SNOW WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY
DISCUSSION
Water vapor satellite imagery reveals a trough and low-pressure center moving through the region, causing showers and isolated thunderstorms this afternoon. Showers are expected to decrease in coverage this evening. The trough will remain over the area on Monday, continuing the trend of below-average high temperatures. Radar projections indicate showers and isolated thunderstorms returning Monday afternoon due to instability aided by daytime heating.
Model guidance agrees that north-central Idaho and western Montana will be between troughs on Tuesday, leading to near- average temperatures and isolated afternoon showers.
For Wednesday and Thursday, the forecast is becoming more certain as model clusters converge on the path of a low-pressure system.
This system is expected to enter the region on Wednesday, producing widespread rain by the afternoon. While there are still some differences in the projected path of the low on Thursday, most models indicate continued widespread precipitation. Snow levels are forecast to drop to around 5,000-6,000 feet, potentially impacting travel over mountain passes on Thursday morning. There are even a few model members placing the low pressure center in a position favorable for snow in the valleys.
AVIATION
Radar and satellite loops this afternoon show a convective environment with showers and isolated thunderstorms developing and expanding in coverage. Stronger cells have produced gusts around 30 knots, brief heavy rain, and graupel or small hail. Radar projections indicate that showers and thunderstorms will linger into the evening and return Monday afternoon.
MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MT...None.
ID...None.
Airport Reports
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