Sunrise 6:29 AM   Sunset 9:18 PM Moonrise 4:07 AM   Moonset 4:03 PM

  Print   HELP   Reset   Save   Recall

LSZ140 /o.exp.kdlh.ma.w.0034.000000t0000z-231005t2330z/ 624 Pm Cdt Thu Oct 5 2023
.the special marine warning will expire at 630 pm cdt - .
the affected areas were - . Grand marais to taconite harbor mn - . Grand portage to grand marais mn - . Lake superior west of a line from saxon harbor wi to grand portage mn beyond 5nm - . Outer apostle islands beyond 5 nm from mainland - .
the showers have weakened and no longer pose a significant threat to boaters. A gale warning remains in effect until 12 am cdt tonight.
lat - .lon 4751 8988 4712 9014 4710 9027 4709 9066 4710 9066 4723 9053 4771 9048 4781 9016 4786 8993 time - .mot - .loc 2322z 266deg 35kt 4767 9028 4736 9031 4727 9034 4714 9045

LSZ100
No data

FXUS63 KDLH 042348 AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Duluth MN 648 PM CDT Sat May 4 2024

KEY MESSAGES

- Shower activity this afternoon with some embedded thunderstorms in the Minnesota Arrowhead before showers taper off this evening.

- Mostly clear skies and a colder air mass overhead tonight are expected to aid in fog and frost formation tonight.

- Breezy southerly winds occur with minimum relative humidity in the low to mid-30% range on Monday.

- An active pattern continues with plenty of chances for rain showers and thunderstorms through the week. The next round of rainfall begins Monday night into Tuesday, with non-severe thunderstorms in northwest Wisconsin.

DISCUSSION
Issued at 315 PM CDT Sat May 4 2024

As a cold front departs, there will be a brief window this afternoon where shower activity will prevail. There is just enough MUCAPE (<500 J/kg) to spark a few thunderstorms across NE MN. Shower activity should commence with sunset leaving fairly clear skies as high pressure builds overnight.

Expect fog to develop though a little unsure on the density, so for now have a broad brush patchy fog wording in the forecast.
May need dense fog advisories depending on how this plays out.
There is a little potential for the fog to frost out as temperatures approach the mid to lower 30s.

A little break from the rain on Sunday before the next system begins to push in on Monday bringing stronger winds and dry conditions before rain arrives in the overnight hours between Monday and Tuesday. The parent low to this is attendant to a closed upper level low spinning over western ND. This spawns the cold front over the Northland giving the potential for thunderstorms and some stronger downpours with a narrow strip of PWATs exceeding 1.25" as it crosses. Shear profiles aren't conducive to severe weather, so not expecting any storms to be strong, but do expect them to be around.

That same upper level that spawned the Mon-Tue storm will slowly move east and wrap vort maxes around it giving a chance for shower activity through much of the remainder of the work week.
While the secondary low it spawns looks like it will miss us to the south or just brush NW WI, late in the week, still think there is enough variance in the guidance for that forecast to change, so keep an eye out for forecast updates in this period as a little wobble north could increase our chances for heavier rain.

With compact lows that are moving through the region, could see some elevated winds throughout the week. Given the nature of compact lows, that also means wind directions will be variable and can change quickly.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/
Issued at 635 PM CDT Sat May 4 2024

VFR conditions will be the primary for the TAF period. Due to lingering moisture across the area, fog is possible in the later hours of the night. Some models show fog forming as early as 06Z, but only put in visibility restrictions where confidence was higher that fog would form. However, chances for fog continue to decrease in high-res models and may be taken out in the 06Z set.

MARINE /FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/
Issued at 635 PM CDT Sat May 4 2024

Areas of marine fog are possible through Sunday morning. Light winds under high pressure prevail through Sunday morning before becoming west-southwest at 10-15 knots. No concerns until Monday when northeast winds and waves increase.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...None.
WI...None.
MARINE...None.

Full Color Weather Map

Link to Loop


Other links: GEOS-West     Contential US     Full GOES-East

Marquette, MI,