Sunrise 5:17 AM   Sunset 8:09 PM Moonrise 4:49 AM   Moonset 8:14 PM

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FXUS66 KOTX 070511 AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Spokane WA 1011 PM PDT Mon May 6 2024

SYNOPSIS
Expect cool, windy, and showery conditions for the start of the work week as a trough of low pressure remains over the Inland NW.
Then a ridge of high pressure builds into the region, giving way to warmer and drier weather by midweek that continues into the weekend. Next weekend has the potential to deliver our warmest temperatures of the spring so far.

DISCUSSION

Tonight through Tuesday: Evening convection will calm as day time heating cools. The isolated shower and thunderstorm activity will diminish along with the winds. The rain potential for has decreased from previous runs with chances limited to the Cascades and Idaho Panhandle. Amounts are not expected to exceed 0.1" with most just receiving a few hundreths. Winds will are still expected to be breezy and more widespread across the Columbia Basin. The wind gusts have slightly weakened from previous forecast.
Strongest winds will again be in the East slopes of the Cascades reaching into the low 40 MPH range. The Palouse could also see gusts near 40 MPH. Winds will calm late Tuesday as the cold front exits. Temperatures will be 50°s to low 60°s for highs and 30°s and low 40s for overnight lows.

Wednesday through Sunday: Ensembles continue to be in decent agreement of a ridge pattern developing along the coast during this period. It will bring an unseasonable dry, warm trend to the region. There will be diminishing mountain shower activity through Wednesday. High temperatures will increase a few degrees each day from the prior day. The region can expect widespread 80° temperatures by the weekend. These will will be 10-15° warmer than normal. The Central Basin could see some locations reach into the low 90°s. Overnight lows will be in the upper 40°s and 50°s. /JDC

HYDROLOGY
The unseasonably warm temperatures this weekend will increase the high mountain snowmelt in the northern Cascades, Selkirks, and northern Panhandle mountains. This will give way to rises in flows on the creeks and rivers in the east slopes of the Cascades, Okanogan Highlands to the northern ID Panhandle. Due to the lower mountain snowpack, the additional rises should bring streamflows to normal levels. A few river basins may near bankfull conditions, although the threat of river flooding remains very low (less than 10%) across the Inland NW. /rfox.

AVIATION
06Z TAFS: The Inland Northwest will remain under a conditionally unstable upper level trough of lower pressure through Tuesday. Mid level clouds will clear overnight with the loss of surface heating. This will allow for the potential of lower stratus to develop in the Idaho Panhandle and extend out into the Palouse region. Expect MVFR conditions with ceilings down to 2 kft agl. at KPUW and KCOE by early Tuesday morning. Westerly winds will remain breezy through the night and drier air advecting into KGEG-KSFF is expected to keep these lower clouds at bay at these airports.
Tuesday will be another windy day with westerly wind gusts between 20-30 kts across much of the exposed areas of the basin. Diurnally driven showers are expected Tuesday afternoon and isolated to scattered in coverage from KLWS to KCQV and points eastward.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: There is moderate confidence for low stratus to develop at KCOE and KPUW terminals Tuesday morning. Drier air with westerly winds may may make it difficult for stratus to develop. Developing cumulus late in the morning may result in a brief period of ceilings below 3 kft agl. /SVH

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Confidence descriptors: Low - Less than a 30 percent chance Moderate - 30 to 70 percent chance High - Greater than a 70 percent chance

For additional probabilistic information for NWS Spokane airports, please refer to the Aviation Dashboard on our webpage: https:// www.weather.gov/otx/avndashboard

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Spokane 36 60 38 65 41 75 / 30 10 10 0 0 0 Coeur d'Alene 35 57 38 62 41 73 / 40 20 10 0 0 0 Pullman 34 53 36 57 38 69 / 50 10 10 0 0 0 Lewiston 41 60 43 64 44 77 / 40 10 10 0 0 0 Colville 33 61 36 69 38 77 / 20 10 0 0 0 0 Sandpoint 36 56 40 62 40 72 / 40 20 10 10 0 0 Kellogg 36 50 39 57 42 70 / 60 50 30 20 0 0 Moses Lake 39 64 37 72 41 80 / 10 0 0 0 0 0 Wenatchee 41 59 40 71 47 78 / 10 0 0 0 0 0 Omak 37 65 38 74 44 82 / 10 0 0 0 0 0

OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ID...None.
WA...None.

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