Tuesday, November30, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Winthrop, WA

Version 3.4
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3/30/2021 -- ANZ330 has been split into ANZ331 and ANZ332. Click EDIT in Marine Forecast and select your new zone.
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 7:25AMSunset 4:14PM Tuesday November 30, 2021 4:36 PM PST (00:36 UTC) Moonrise 2:34AMMoonset 2:21PM Illumination 12% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 26 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Winthrop, WA
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location: 48.47, -120.18     debug


Area Discussion for - Spokane, WA
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FXUS66 KOTX 010011 AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Spokane WA 411 PM PST Tue Nov 30 2021

SYNOPSIS. Rain showers will linger in the Cascades and Idaho Panhandle through Wednesday. Strong winds are expected across the Cascade ridges overnight and tomorrow. Temperatures will remain very mild with record high temperatures on Wednesday. A cool down toward more seasonal temperatures is expected late this week into this weekend.

DISCUSSION. Tonight and Wednesday: It will be another breezy and mild night across the Inland Northwest with the region remaining well south of the Polar Jet and accompanying atmospheric river streaming across south-central BC. The main threat for rain will continue to be along the Cascade Crest and rising terrain of Northeastern Washington and North Idaho but rain intensities will be waning leading to light to locally moderate additional precipitation amounts. Two main weather features of note will be the mild temperatures and gusty winds.

*Winds: We are seeing very subtle changes in the position and strength of the jet stream in the next 24 hours however models do indicate a few changes within the layers of stability of the atmosphere and winds within the lower atmosphere. The most notable change being reflected in the guidance as a 5-10kt increase of wind within the lowest 0.5-2km above ground layer. Consequently, it will be another breezy night across the Palouse, Columbia Basin, and our mountains. Similar to Monday night, we anticipate a stable weather environment in which the mountain valleys and lower river valleys remain decoupled from the stronger winds aloft. The exception for tonight could be across the northern rim of the Columbia Basin and Waterville Plateau from the West Plains to Davenport to Wilbur toward Mansfield. Thinking these areas will experience gusts 30-35 mph and low end potential for speeds 40-45 mph. The strongest winds would be possible between 11PM and 9AM. Much stronger winds are anticipated on the ridgetops in the Cascades. Wind gusts will likely exceed 50 mph and could approach 70 mph or stronger on a few of the higher peaks. This carries much higher confidence and has been a consistent message in the models. It was also observed this morning (TUE). A few notable wind gusts that were observed include Mission Ridge at 96 mph, Dirty Face Summit at 57 mph, and Dry Creek RAWS at 49 mph. Winds will be breezy to gusty on Wednesday as well but speeds look to peak in the morning and come down through the afternoon; the windiest locations will remain the Columbia Basin, Palouse, Foothills of the Blue Mountains as well as the higher terrain. As for impacts, there is likely to be some tree damage in the higher elevations where there is no population. Those venturing in the backcountry for wood, hunting, or recreation should be cautious of potentially high winds. In the lowlands, wind impacts should be minimal to none. Cannot rule out some isolated tree damage with weak or dead trees if gusts reach 45 mph but this carries low confidence.

*Temperatures: Mild temperatures will be here to stay for another 36 hours with overnight lows 5-10 degrees warmer than our "normal" highs. On that note, EC ENS gives the entire area a 0-10% chance of falling below freezing. Rain chances look to migrate northward on Wednesday with drier air in the 700-500mb layer. Given the increasing chance for sunshine, steady surface, and winds and another 4C of midlevel warming . confidence is high that Wednesday will be warmer than today delivering yet another afternoon of record breaking warmth as temperatures warm into the upper 50s to lower 60s. The one caveat adding some uncertainty to the forecast for Wednesday afternoon is moisture (ie cloud cover) within the 850-700 mb layer across the Eastern Basin and N ID. This could be the one factor that impacts temperatures a few degrees.

Wednesday night through Thursday: A cold front will slowly sag through the region ushering cooler temperatures and bringing one last round of showers to our mountains. Most of the precipitation will fall before snow levels drop to pass levels so we are not anticipating any impacts to travel. Winds will remain breezy with gusts 20-30 mph through the day as cooler air seeps in from the north. Winds will also shift from the west and southwest to the north and northwest. This will not be a very strong cold front yet a 8-12 degree drop in temperatures is expected from Wednesday to Thursday. However, if you put this in perspective, since we will be running 20+ degrees above normal Wednesday, Thursday will continue to feature above normal temperatures with afternoon highs cooling into the 40s and 50s. /sb

Friday: As the jet that has been place weakens and shifts South, the region will begin to be influenced by cooler temperatures. The can expect a around an eight degree drop from the previous days highs. By late Friday, an incoming system will begin to press snow showers into the Cascades. Highs for the day are expected to be in the upper 30s and 40s.

Saturday and Sunday: The system is expected to press through the Inland Northwest on Saturday. Ensembles are not carrying a lot of precip and keeping it in the Cascades and Idaho Panhandle. It will be a mountain snow and valley rain event. Winds across the Basin are expected to be gusty into the 20s. Overnight lows will be in the upper 20s and low 30s. Highs for the period will continue to be in the upper 30s and 40s.

Late Sunday through Tuesday: Models are indicating a stronger system will begin to approach the region late Sunday. As of now, the track is heading into the WA coast. Ensembles are showing widepsread showers. While the consensus is mountain snow, the confidence is low on the precip type for valleys and Basin. The GFS lowers 850mb temperatures below freezing while the EC keeps them a few degrees above freezing. Whether it occurs during the day or night also plays a factor. For now, the lowland precip will start as rain and slowly shift to a rain snow mix by late Monday. Highs will drop 40s to the 30s. Overnight lows will begin to dip into the 20s and low 30s. /JDC

AVIATION. 00Z TAFs: The main aviation concern in the next 24 hours will be strong winds located within a few thousand feet of the surface, low-level wind shear, and uncertainty in timing if these winds will surface at any air fields. Forecast is leaning toward a more stable environment and longer duration of wind shear. A few of the airfields along the upper reaches of the Columbia Basin from KGEG to Wilbur to Mansfield will carry the greatest risk for wind gusts 30-40 mph. Strong winds are likely to impact the mountains and create turbulent flow across our mountain ridges. A secondary concern will be MVFR cigs developing from upsloping flow into NE WA and N ID. Coverage likely to be broken at times around Coeur D Alene, Sandpoint, Bonners Ferry, and Spokane at times. Thinking this will likely bounce from sct-bkn throughout the night. -Shra will continue to impact N ID and at times, far eastern WA. Numerous -shra will also lead to mtn obscrns along the Cascade Crest. /sb


PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS. Spokane 44 58 43 50 29 42 / 10 10 0 0 0 0 Coeur d'Alene 44 55 43 50 32 44 / 20 20 10 0 0 0 Pullman 44 59 43 50 32 46 / 20 10 10 0 0 0 Lewiston 46 62 46 57 39 50 / 20 10 0 0 0 0 Colville 43 53 39 50 26 40 / 20 10 0 0 0 0 Sandpoint 43 53 42 48 31 41 / 40 30 10 20 0 0 Kellogg 43 54 43 49 34 45 / 40 30 20 20 0 0 Moses Lake 45 62 42 53 29 45 / 10 10 0 0 0 0 Wenatchee 45 63 43 51 32 43 / 10 0 10 0 0 0 Omak 42 57 38 50 27 42 / 10 10 10 0 0 0

OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. ID . None. WA . None.




Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Omak Airport, WA35 mi-43156 minS 1010.00 miOvercast56°F41°F57%1016.8 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KOMK

Wind History from OMK (wind in knots)
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This dayW5S4SW60SE4--S8S11S13S15--S7S15S13S10SW5SW6S13S14S13
G19
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1 day agoS8S7SW4W7NW6NW4NW5NW3W40NW3NW30SE3N4NW5SW3NW3N7E30S3SE50
2 days agoS5SE5SE3SE7S5SE7E3S6S8S9S8SE8E5W8050S4S13S13
G22
S14SE9SE10S11

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NOTE: This section has been updated as of 1/26/2021. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may use the EDIT function to update your location.
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