Sunrise 5:42 AM   Sunset 8:37 PM Moonrise 3:56 AM   Moonset 6:15 PM

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PZZ133 Northern Inland Waters Including The San Juan Islands- 208 Pm Pdt Mon May 6 2024
Tonight - W wind 15 to 25 kt. Wind waves 2 to 4 ft. Tue - W wind 10 to 20 kt becoming 5 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Wind waves 1 to 3 ft. Tue night - W wind 10 to 20 kt. Wind waves 1 to 3 ft. Wed - SW wind to 10 kt. Wind waves 1 ft or less. Wed night - W wind 5 to 15 kt becoming nw after midnight. Wind waves 2 ft or less. Thu - N wind to 10 kt becoming nw 5 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Wind waves 2 ft or less. Thu night - NW wind 5 to 15 kt in the evening becoming light. Wind waves 2 ft or less. Fri - NW wind to 10 kt. Wind waves 1 ft or less. Sat - NW wind to 10 kt becoming sw. Wind waves 1 ft or less.

PZZ100 208 Pm Pdt Mon May 6 2024
Synopsis for the northern and central washington coastal and inland waters - Onshore flow will continue throughout the day as a surface cold front continues to slide inland. High pressure will build over the coastal waters and inland through the remainder of the week.

FXUS66 KSEW 070347 AFDSEW

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Seattle WA 847 PM PDT Mon May 6 2024

UPDATE
No changes made here in this evening's update. Scattered showers and convergence zone activity is still ongoing but thunderstorm chances will diminish with loss of diurnal heating.
For tonight, overnight lows are forecast to fall into the upper 30s to lower 40s with continued rain showers and snow for passes.
The previous discussion remains below along with an updated marine/aviation section.


SYNOPSIS
Cool and showery conditions will continue across the region into Tuesday with lowland rain and mountain snow expected.
A Puget Sound Convergence Zone will develop later on today with isolated thunderstorms possible across most of the area. The pattern will shift starting around midweek as a upper level ridge builds over our region, bringing dry and much warmer temperatures into the weekend.



SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
A upper level trough will sweep through western Washington this afternoon into the evening which will provide instability and some lift for widespread rain showers and isolated thunderstorms across the area. Brief gusty wind, small hail, and isolated lightning will be the main hazard associated with any thunderstorm that develops this afternoon. Recent radar imagery already shows post-frontal rain showers moving onshore through the interior. Afternoon temperatures will remaining in the mid 50s.

Along with widespread showers and isolated thunderstorms, a Puget Sound Convergence Zone will develop this afternoon across Snohomish into Central Skagit County, moving southward into King county by this evening. Meanwhile, snow levels will start to fall to around 3000 feet this evening and around 2500 feet by Tuesday morning. Light snow is possible down to around Stevens Pass and Snoqualmie Pass into this evening. Amounts look generally light, but with the Puget Sound Convergence Zone shifting southward into the Cascades, there is a chance that the PSCZ may enhance the snowfall totals near the passes. Overall, best chance for accumulating snowfall would be on the higher mountain elevations of the Cascades. NBM probabilities generally show a 25-35% chance of 3 to 5 inches at Snoqualmie Pass this evening into early Tuesday morning, with amounts most likely ending up on the 1 to 2 inch scale (mainly due to road temperatures as well).

Showers will linger into Tuesday but will be mainly confined to the mountains, with the thunderstorm threat also diminishing.
Temperatures will continue to stay in the mid to upper 50s.

A pattern shift will become clear on Wednesday as the upper level trough moves off to the east to make room for an upper level ridge to build just offshore western Washington. Cloud cover will begin to decrease with temps starting to warm into the lower 60s.

The warm up continues into Thursday, with temperatures reaching into the the low to mid 70s, and possibly even upper 70s in the Southwest Interior. Areas near the water will likely experience a temps a little bit cooler, in the upper 60s/lower 70s. A more significant warm up will continue into the weekend.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
Ensemble guidance remains in a quite strong agreement with the aforementioned upper level ridge shifting closer to the Pacific Northwest and taking residence there through the long term period. There is still some details to iron out regarding exact location and placement of this ridge, but confidence is high that most areas will see the first 80 degree day this year on Friday and Saturday - which seem to be the warmest days of the week. While the precise temperature will likely fluctuate in the coming days, it is worth noting that this is our first significant warm up of the year and it is heading into a weekend. Many folks will want to be outside and take advantage of the nice weather and want to be around bodies of water. Keep in mind that local waters and rivers are still quite cool, with hypothermia risk possible even with the warm air temperatures. Be sure to adhere to safety practices if you are out in or around the water during this time.

Mazurkiewicz



AVIATION
Onshore flow will continue throughout the day as a surface cold front continues to move inland. Small Craft Advisories will continue for the Central and East Entrance to the Strait of Juan de Fuca and Admiralty Inlet through tonight.

Winds up to 25 to 30 kt will continue through the Strait of Juan de Fuca, Admiralty Inlet thanks to strong onshore flow behind yesterday's cold front. Winds will turn westerly then northwesterly and slowly decrease as high pressure moves into the region towards the middle of the week, and high pressure is expected to linger through the weekend.

Combined seas will build to 9 to 11 ft tonight through Tuesday as high pressure amplifies towards the coast. A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect for the coastal waters through Tuesday evening.
Seas will gradually subside as high pressure continues to increase over the region, lessening between 5 and 7 ft Wednesday and beyond.

Davis/15

HYDROLOGY
No river flooding expected in the next 7 days.



SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WA...None.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM PDT Tuesday for Central U.S.
Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca-East Entrance U.S. Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca.

Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM PDT Tuesday for Admiralty Inlet.

Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM to 8 PM PDT Tuesday for Admiralty Inlet.

Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM PDT Tuesday for Coastal Waters From Cape Flattery To James Island 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters From Cape Flattery To James Island Out 10 Nm-Coastal Waters From James Island To Point Grenville 10 To 60 Nm- Coastal Waters From James Island To Point Grenville Out 10 Nm-Coastal Waters From Point Grenville To Cape Shoalwater 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters From Point Grenville To Cape Shoalwater Out 10 Nm.

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Roche Harbor
Click for Map
Mon -- 03:36 AM PDT     7.77 feet High Tide
Mon -- 04:55 AM PDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 05:43 AM PDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 10:23 AM PDT     -0.11 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 05:14 PM PDT     6.83 feet High Tide
Mon -- 07:15 PM PDT     Moonset
Mon -- 08:35 PM PDT     Sunset
Mon -- 10:19 PM PDT     3.73 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Roche Harbor, San Juan Island, Washington, Tide feet

Limestone Point
Click for MapFlood direction 85° true
Ebb direction 283° true

Mon -- 12:39 AM PDT     2.02 knots Max Flood
Mon -- 02:43 AM PDT     -0.01 knots Slack
Mon -- 04:55 AM PDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 05:43 AM PDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 07:36 AM PDT     -4.87 knots Max Ebb
Mon -- 10:56 AM PDT     0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 01:27 PM PDT     2.90 knots Max Flood
Mon -- 04:17 PM PDT     -0.01 knots Slack
Mon -- 07:14 PM PDT     Moonset
Mon -- 08:29 PM PDT     -3.25 knots Max Ebb
Mon -- 08:35 PM PDT     Sunset
Mon -- 11:25 PM PDT     0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Limestone Point, Spieden Channel, Washington Current, knots

Full Color Weather Map

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