Saturday, October23, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Nikolski, AK

Version 3.4
NOTICE
3/30/2021 -- ANZ330 has been split into ANZ331 and ANZ332. Click EDIT in Marine Forecast and select your new zone.
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 9:02AMSunset 6:25PM Saturday October 23, 2021 1:34 PM AKDT (21:34 UTC) Moonrise 6:26PMMoonset 10:33AM Illumination 91% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 18 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PKZ174 Nikolski To Seguam Island Pacific Side- 357 Am Akdt Sat Oct 23 2021
.gale warning today and Sunday...
Today..NW wind 35 kt decreasing to 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas 15 ft.
Tonight..NW wind 20 kt becoming se 30 kt after midnight. Seas 11 ft. Rain.
Sun..SE wind 45 kt becoming S at 30 kt in the afternoon. Seas 13 ft. Rain.
Sun night..N wind 35 kt. Seas 25 ft.
Mon..NW wind 25 kt. Seas 18 ft.
Tue through Wed..W wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Nikolski, AK
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location: 52.92, -169.17     debug


Area Discussion for -
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FXAK68 PAFC 231318 AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Anchorage AK 518 AM AKDT Sat Oct 23 2021

FXAK68 PAFC 231219 AAA AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion . UPDATED National Weather Service Anchorage AK 419 AM AKDT Sat Oct 23 2021

ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS.

A strong subtropical jet remains in place stretching from the Western Aleutians to the California Coast. Meanwhile, a high amplitude ridge exists from Washington to the far northern reaches of the Canadian Arctic. This pattern places Alaska at the center of a broad longwave trough, anchored by two upper level lows over the Gulf. The remnants of yesterdays hurricane force low have now moved into the western Gulf, just east of another strong low moving north along the Southeastern Alaska coastline. To the north of these systems, a weak shortwave is producing light rain along the Gulf coast with most inland areas in close proximity to the mountains remaining downsloped. Out west, strong northerly winds remain over the eastern Aleutians and Alaska Peninsula in the wake of the departing low. Some precipitation is spilling over the Aleutian Range into Bristol from the eastern Gulf low.

MODEL DISCUSSION.

Overall synoptic model agreement remains good in the short term. Some minor differences remain in how the two lows will merge over the Gulf today with some solutions retaining multiple low centers while others merge the two into one broad low. Although the differences exist, the resultant wind field is similar and therefore there is moderate to high confidence for winds over the Gulf marine areas. Some model differences remain in the track and intensity of the north Pacific low expected to reach the Aleutian Chain Sunday morning. Overall, solutions have come into better agreement but some discrepancies remain as to whether storm force winds will cross the Island Chain and reach the Bering Sea waters.

AVIATION. PANC . VFR conditions and light north to northeasterly winds will persist. Most of the precipitation moving over the mountains will remain downsloped though some brief, light drizzle is possible this morning.



.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2: Today through Sunday Night) .

The weekend outlook will feature very active weather across the Gulf, with relatively quiet conditions prevailing inland. Over the Gulf, a series of lows circulating around each other and eventually merging and moving back into the North Pacific will persist through Sunday. This will produce localized storm force winds across the northern Gulf and Middleton Island today. Northerly gales will impact the waters off Kodiak Island this afternoon through this evening as the low moves westward. The low then drifts south and rapidly weakens through Sunday morning. A weak, small mesolow develops over the central Gulf Sunday evening and persists through Sunday night.

Precipitation associated with the Gulf lows will be largely confined to the Gulf and adjacent mountains today into tomorrow. However, an upper level wave pinwheeling off the Gulf low will draw some of that moisture north across the Copper River Basin tonight through Sunday. This is not a strong disturbance by any means. Moisture and cold air will combine to produce a few inches of snow across mostly the western Copper Basin and the east-facing slopes of the Talkeetna Mountains, including the Lake Louise area. Elsewhere across the Copper River Basin, predominant easterly flow should help to keep much of the rest of the basin dry, though occasional snow showers can't be ruled out. Thus, raised forecast snow totals around Eureka to close to 4 inches, but lowered totals around Glennallen and points south.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 and 2: Today through Sunday night) .

Low pressure over the Gulf will continue to wrap moisture over the Bristol Bay area with a few very light showers mainly in the form of snow this morning and changing over to rain in the afternoon as temperatures warm. A weak shortwave will move across the Kuskokwim Delta today producing a few snow showers. This wave will usher in colder air across the Y-K Delta today and eventually push colder air into Bristol Bay on Sunday creating a few rain and snow showers. However, no significant snow accumulations are expected in populated areas. The higher elevations in the mountains are expected to get a couple of inches of new snow.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 and 2: Today through Sunday night) .

Cool northwesterly flow will continue to create Gales across the eastern Bering and eastern Aleutians with rain showers. A ridge of high pressure will move across the Bering today and Sunday with a period of lighter winds and quiet weather. However, a storm force low will approach the western Aleutians tonight and quickly move along the Aleutian chain through Sunday and then push south of the AKPEN and into the southern Gulf Sunday night and Monday. This storm will bring storm force winds to the western and central Aleutians and gales elsewhere, as well as periods of moderate to heavy rain.

MARINE (Days 3 through 5/Monday through Wednesday).

Bering Sea - A well developed low south of the Aleutians moves into the Central Gulf by late Monday and weakens as it tracks to the East Gulf Coast through Wednesday morning. Gale force winds over the Central and Eastern Aleutians strengthen to high end gales over the Eastern Aleutians and Alaska Peninsula, especially through the Barren Islands and Sitkinak on Tuesday, diminishing Wednesday. Seas to 15 feet south of the Aleutians Monday night will diminish late Tuesday. A new low develops over the Bering Tuesday afternoon. Forecast confidence is low to moderate with the exact track and strength at this time. Small craft winds look likely with an outside chance of high end gales through Wednesday morning. Seas to 13 feet over the Central Aleutians for Wednesday morning.

Gulf of Alaska - A weak low east of Kodiak Island remains nearly stationary through Tuesday morning before it combines with the Bering Sea low in the Southern Gulf. This new low weakens as it tracks to the East Gulf Coast through Wednesday morning. Conditions look likely for northwesterly gale force winds through the Barren Islands and Sitkinak on Tuesday, diminishing Wednesday. Seas building to 17 feet over the Eastern Gulf Tuesday morning will diminish Wednesday.

Long Term Discussion (Days 4 through 7: Tuesday through Friday).

The overall pattern will be cloudy and cool for Southcentral and Southwest Alaska during the extended period. There is good ensemble agreement that an upper level trough will extend from the Bering Strait into the central Gulf of Alaska. For the Bering/Aleutians, the overall pattern will be cloudy and cool with showers across the eastern half and warmer with less cloud cover across the western half as upper level troughing extends across the eastern Bering/Aleutians while upper level ridging extends across the western Bering/Aleutians.

Closer to the surface, there will be a series of surface lows moving across the Alaska Peninsula from the Bering Sea into the Gulf of Alaska. These lows will then move northeastward into the northern Gulf. There is good agreement at the moment with the center of these lows passing east of Kodiak Island which will increase the likelihood of snow throughout the higher elevations of Kodiak Island on Friday. These lows will also bring moisture to the windward side of the Chugach Mountains. With respect to precipitation type, the likelihood of snow will increase with elevation.

AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. PUBLIC . NONE. MARINE . STORM 119 175-178 GALE 120 131 132 150 155 165 107-174 351 352 411 413 414 FIRE WEATHER . NONE.



SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION . CJ SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA . JPW SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS . RC MARINE/LONG TERM . AF/ED


Weather Reporting Stations
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On 03/09/2021 the NDBC primary processing servers were shut off due to a facilities issue. Station pages on the NDBC website are not updating and there is no ETR at this time. We will update this banner as we learn more.
Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
OLSA2 - 9462450 - Nokolski, AK 16 mi46 min WNW 24G29 40°F 1011.1 hPa
NKLA2 17 mi22 min WSW 19G42 36°F 34°F

Wind History for Nikolski, AK
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W40
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G62
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G66
W49
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W48
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G55
W48
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NW40
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G21
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G15
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G24
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G38
S21
G29
SW24
G33
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G43
W37
W30
G38
W42
W39
G52

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Unalaska, Unalaska Airport, AK155 mi38 minNW 23 G 2710.00 miMostly Cloudy and Windy40°F30°F68%1006.1 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for PADU

Wind History from ADU (wind in knots)
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1 day agoSW24
G31
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G58
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2 days agoSW13W8SW12
G17
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SW11
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G21
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Tide / Current Tables for Adugak Islands, Umnak Island, Alaska
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Adugak Islands
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Sat -- 02:05 AM AKDT     0.35 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 09:58 AM AKDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 11:10 AM AKDT     3.71 feet High Tide
Sat -- 01:33 PM AKDT     Moonset
Sat -- 08:02 PM AKDT     Sunset
Sat -- 09:26 PM AKDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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Tide / Current Tables for Cape Sagak, Umnak Island, Alaska
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Cape Sagak
Click for Map
Sat -- 08:40 AM AKDT     4.36 feet High Tide
Sat -- 09:57 AM AKDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 01:32 PM AKDT     Moonset
Sat -- 08:02 PM AKDT     Sunset
Sat -- 09:26 PM AKDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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