Sunrise 6:27 AM   Sunset 8:51 PM Moonrise 4:48 PM   Moonset 2:34 AM

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FXUS61 KCAR 200955 AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 555 AM EDT Mon May 20 2024

SYNOPSIS
High pressure will ridge across the region through early week, then build south of the area through the middle of the week. A strong cold front will cross the area Thursday, followed by high pressure Friday into next weekend.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
Update...
Patchy fog was evident across portions of the area early this morning but should burn of rather quickly next hour or two. Just minor adjustments to hourly temperatures and dew points, otherwise no other changes at this time.

previous discussion The upper level ridge remains the dominant feature through tonight.
At the surface, high pressure extending from the Maritimes and along the New England coast slowly shifts east through tonight. After any patchy low clouds and fog dissipate this morning expect a partly to mainly sunny day. A weak disturbance tracking across the far north later this afternoon into early this evening could generate an isolated shower or thunderstorm from the north Maine Woods through the St. John Valley. Otherwise, expect partly cloudy to mostly skies tonight with patchy fog and low clouds once again expected to develop late. Highs this afternoon will range from the mid to upper 70s north with lower 70s for Bangor and interior Downeast, and even cooler along the immediate coast.

SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
Upr ridge will be extending from high center over Mexico up into the mid-Atlantic at the start of the period, with zonal flow acrs CWA Vort max currently over Kansas will be ejecting northeastward toward the area and looks to approach wrn areas on Tuesday afternoon. Latest GFS is still much quicker bringing showers in across the north whereas remainder of short term guidance, along with most hires models, are about 3 hours slower and not seeing chc for shower potential until around 21z. For the time being based on latest model runs have delayed chc for showers until later in the afternoon. However this may still be too quick to move in and will all depend on timing of vort. PW values increase above 1.25" during the afternoon and evening hours which is well above normal for this time of the year.
Given the environment cannot rule out thunderstorms on Tuesday afternoon as inland locations look to hit their convective temps. 0-6km shear of around 30-40kts with CAPES of between 500-1000 J/kg in the afternoon looks to bring potential of damaging winds. Unfortunately, there look to be two different camps of solutions which leads to very minimal confidence in timing of storms.

NAM/CMC and EC bring showers and isold storms thru during the overnight hours on Tuesday night. Have retained storms thru 03z Wednesday just to account for slower solutions but confidence remains very low at this point.

Upr ridge looks to build in on Wednesday with warm front lifting through in the afternoon. Under warm advection cannot rule out showers outside of marine layer, however soundings indicate a capping inversion around H8 during the afternoon hours. Temps over inland areas expected to rise into the 80s with immediate shoreline and outer islands in the mid-60s.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
Area will be in the warm sector on Thursday before cold front moves through in the afternoon. This will likely be enuf to result in a line of storms with CAPES around 1000 J/kg and 0-6km shear on the order of 40kts. PW values increase to 1.50 inches immediately ahead of the front so cannot rule out locally heavy rainfall with storms on Thursday.

Temperatures on Friday will be 10 degrees cooler than Thursday with upr lvl trof lingering and bringing showers to northern zones. Saturday likely to be the coolest day with highs only getting into the lower 60s over the north in northwest flow.
Upper level ridge looks to begin building in on Sunday with the next chance for showers possibly moving in on Memorial Day.

AVIATION /10Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
NEAR TERM: IFR possible across the Aroostook terminals through 12Z in patchy fog, otherwise VFR through tonight.

KBGR/KBHB..IFR/MVFR expected through about 14z due to ceilings and patchy fog, then VFR returns through early this evening. Low clouds/patchy fog will then affect the terminals late tonight.

S to SW wind 5 to 10 kt at all terminals through tonight.

SHORT TERM: Tuesday...Mainly VFR, though may see brief MVFR in slight chance for storms over over Aroostook terminals. WSW 5-10kts.

Tuesday night-Wednesday night...VFR. MVFR/IFR fog at BHB Wednesday morning. SW 5-10kts Tuesday evening, W 5-10kts Wednesday, then S 5kts Wednesday night.

Thursday...Mainly VFR with IFR possibly in strong thunderstorms across north. SW 5-15kts.

Thursday night-Friday...VFR with brief MVFR cigs over north and possible showers. SW 5-10kts becoming W 10-15kts with gusts to 20kts.

MARINE
NEAR TERM: Winds/seas remain below SCA levels through tonight.
Visibility may be reduced to 1 to 3 NM in patchy fog early this morning and again late tonight.

SHORT TERM: Winds below SCA levels through Thursday. SW winds will be marginal over the outer waters Thursday into Thursday evening. Seas will build toward 5ft on Thursday in southerly swell.

CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...None.
MARINE...None.

Immingham
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Mon -- 03:34 AM BST     Moonset
Mon -- 04:51 AM BST     Sunrise
Mon -- 04:53 AM BST     6.11 meters High Tide
Mon -- 10:59 AM BST     2.25 meters Low Tide
Mon -- 04:54 PM BST     6.18 meters High Tide
Mon -- 05:48 PM BST     Moonrise
Mon -- 09:04 PM BST     Sunset
Mon -- 11:25 PM BST     1.72 meters Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Immingham, England, Tide feet

Whitby
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Mon -- 02:52 AM BST     4.69 meters High Tide
Mon -- 03:35 AM BST     Moonset
Mon -- 04:48 AM BST     Sunrise
Mon -- 09:00 AM BST     1.99 meters Low Tide
Mon -- 03:00 PM BST     4.80 meters High Tide
Mon -- 05:52 PM BST     Moonrise
Mon -- 09:10 PM BST     Sunset
Mon -- 09:23 PM BST     1.48 meters Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Whitby, England, Tide feet

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