Tuesday, December7, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Unalaska, AK

Version 3.4
NOTICE
3/30/2021 -- ANZ330 has been split into ANZ331 and ANZ332. Click EDIT in Marine Forecast and select your new zone.
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 9:54AMSunset 3:47PM Tuesday December 7, 2021 3:54 PM AKST (00:54 UTC) Moonrise 12:05PMMoonset 7:42PM Illumination 15% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 4 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PKZ171 Unalaska Bay- 337 Pm Akst Tue Dec 7 2021
.storm warning Wednesday night...
Tonight..W wind 30 kt. Seas 3 ft building to 5 ft after midnight. Rain.
Wed..SW wind 30 kt becoming S 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 4 ft. Rain.
Wed night..S wind 40 kt becoming sw 60 kt after midnight. Seas 5 ft building to 9 ft after midnight. Rain.
Thu..W wind 55 kt. Seas 8 ft.
Thu night..W wind 40 kt. Seas 6 ft.
Fri..NW wind 45 kt. Seas 20 ft.
Sat..NW wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
Sun..S wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Unalaska, AK
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location: 53.89, -166.54     debug


Area Discussion for -
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FXAK68 PAFC 071452 AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Anchorage AK 552 AM AKST Tue Dec 7 2021

ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS.

A mature low centered near the southern tip of Montague Island is producing active weather over much of Southcentral this morning. The low is becoming vertically stacked beneath an upper-level low as an occlusion is ongoing. Its front extends eastward along the north Gulf coast, bringing warm air which has turned snow to rain for low elevation locations along the coast, from Cordova to Homer. The Anchorage Bowl has continued to see only trace amounts of snow due to persisting gusty southeasterly winds and downslope flow off the Chugach Mountains. However, with the low in the northern Gulf tracking eastward, low-level winds have shifted northwesterly and a band of snow stretching from the southern Susitna Valley to the southern tip of the Kenai Peninsula has begun to push eastward, with radar returns filling in over the western Kenai Peninsula and Anchorage Bowl this morning.

The event has begun to wrap up, though, over the Susitna Valley, where snowfall rates have decreased or stopped altogether. Likewise, snow is dwindling over the Southwest as the effect of the Gulf low wanes west of the Aleutian Range. Scattered, light snow showers are traversing the Southwest as cold air streams off the Bering and forcing from an upper-level shortwave over Southwest Alaska enhances vertical motion. Cold air advection also continues to produce scattered snow showers and gale force gusts over the eastern Bering/Aleutians and AKPEN. A warm front, Southwest Alaska's next snow maker, is pushing across the central Bering, bringing a warmer, moist airmass behind it, which is spreading a deck of stratus across the western Bering Sea.

MODEL DISCUSSION.

Model consensus is good regarding the track of the surface low in the northern Gulf. The models previously expecting the low to track into Prince William Sound have caved to the GFS and now depict the low tracking just south of the Sound and remaining over the northern Gulf. Models generally agree on a progressive weather pattern, with the surface low tracking toward the eastern Gulf into Wednesday.

There is also good synoptic agreement with a front pushing eastward across the Bering through Wednesday, bringing fast westerly flow behind it. There is also good agreement that a strong low tracks northeastward across the western/central Aleutians into the Bering on Wednesday. Accompanying the low is likely to be a swath of storm force winds with hurricane force gusts passing through the central/eastern Aleutians and AKPEN Wednesday night through Thursday.

AVIATION.

PANC . A band of snow, already affecting the airport, is expected to continue to produce accumulating snowfall through the morning hours. Prevailing cig/vsby are expected to be IFR, with intermittent LIFR conditions possible during the heaviest snowfall. By midday, the band of snow departs east with conditions returning to VFR. Prevailing winds remain northerly.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2: Today through Wednesday Night) .

This first round of snow is beginning to wind down across Southcentral this morning. The surface low currently near the southern tip of Montague Island will move eastward towards Cape Suckling by midday today. The low will take the large area of snow currently over much of the northern Kenai Peninsula and approaching west Anchorage and Meadow Lakes and bring it eastward with time through this morning. Thus, the last of the snow will end from west to east today. Winter Weather Advisories remain in effect for Anchorage, the Matanuska Valley, and a Winter Storm Warning remains in effect for the next few hours for the western Kenai Peninsula.

The Alaska Range is doing its usual job of stalling the incoming cold air from making much progress. Thus, temperatures have been slow to do much significant cooling. This is resulting in the snow falling across the Cook Inlet region maintaining a wet and sticky consistency, which will work wonders for reducing impacts from blowing snow across the area. Nonetheless, snow is still expected to fall heavily at times through the morning hours, so the lion's share of any visibility reductions will be from falling snow. The wet snow is also slow to accumulate, and as such forecasted snowfall totals have been reduced a bit to account for the much lower snow ratios now expected.

The Winter Storm Warnings for the Susitna Valley and the western Prince William Sound areas have ended. The heaviest snow from the band over the western Kenai Peninsula will struggle to cross the mountains and maintain its heavy snow. Meanwhile, all of the heaviest snow has exited the Susitna Valley. The Winter Storm Warning for Valdez and Thompson Pass continues as the low over the Gulf feeds continuous snow into that area. The Blizzard Warning for Paxson and along the Richardson Highway also remains in effect with moisture over the Cook Inlet region expected to spread into the Copper River Basin and upslope along the Alaska Range there.

As the low moves off this evening and the cold air does eventually make it across all of Southcentral, not only will temperatures take a tumble back to similar levels we had a few days ago, but so too will the gap winds through Seward, Whittier, Thompson Pass and the Copper River Delta increase. Blowing snow isn't likely to produce many impacts in these areas since rain is expected to be mixed in and any snow is expected to be heavy and wet.

Late tonight into Wednesday morning a relatively weak front will move first across Kodiak Island and then into the southern Kenai Peninsula. This will cause a renewed hit of snow for these areas, which will spread north into Anchorage and the Matanuska Valley by Wednesday afternoon. Unlike the current storm however, temperatures will be very cold for this hit of snow, so any snow that falls will be a powdery consistency that will easily blow around. Most areas are not expected to pick up all that much snow from this front, generally 1 to 4 inches, with higher amounts in the hills north of Homer. The front dissipates Wednesday evening, which will leave some residual cloud cover.

Finally, late Wednesday night the next major winter storm will be on the doorstep of Southcentral, with snow ongoing across Kodiak Island by early Thursday morning. Like the event ending now, it will be a complex event with many moving parts that will all contribute to forecast complexity. Nonetheless, Thursday and Thursday night looks to be a very active period, which may very well require a renewed round of warnings and advisories. Stay tuned.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 through 2: Today through Wednesday morning) .

Colder today across the Southwest as northwesterly flow lowers temperatures into the teens this afternoon. Otherwise, the next occluded front moves into the Kuskokwim Delta this evening with slightly warmer temperatures and increasing winds along with snow creating blowing snow with reduced visibilities across the Delta region through Wednesday morning. The blowing snow will end Wednesday morning with a few lingering snow showers. Light snow is also expected across Bristol Bay and the Lower Kuskokwim Valley late this evening through tomorrow with 1 to 4 inches expected in most populated areas. The snow will wind down by midday Wednesday.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 2: Today through Wednesday morning) .

The active pattern will continue with a swath of gales and snow showers crossing the eastern Bering to the AKPen. The next front and low pressure tracking across the northern Bering will reinforce the gales across much of the region with a small area of storm force winds near the low west of St Matthew Island tonight and Wednesday morning. A new storm force low will begin to move from the North Pacific and toward the central Aleutians Wednesday morning. This low is expected to produce high winds across the Aleutians and AKPen Wednesday into Thursday.

MARINE (Days 3 through 5: Thursday thru Saturday).

A well-developed Central Bering low moves across the Alaska Peninsula and Gulf of Alaska through Saturday. Confidence is good for widespread storm force winds with local areas of hurricane force winds with the low and front through Thursday, mostly over the Bering. Widespread storm force outflow winds persist along the Pacific side of the Alaska Peninsula, and over Shelikof Strait and the Barren Islands through Saturday as the low and front moves across the Gulf. A new North Pacific low and front approaches the Western Aleutians with widespread gales for Saturday.

LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7. Thu through Mon) .

Two separate steepening storms from the North Pacific are strongly focused on making their way across the eastern Bering into the Gulf of Alaska starting Thu through Mon. The first storm is tracked to move through the Aleutians and Bristol Bay Thu and Thu evening before crossing over the western Gulf Thu night. The potential for rain/snow mix is feasible as warm temperatures combined with tropical moisture feeds into the system along the west to south flank of the low, causing steady rain to reach parts of the south Alaska Peninsula and Kodiak Island. Much higher gusts from the first low could occur mainly along the gaps and passes of the eastern Aleutians through the south of Alaska Peninsula into Kamishak Bay and Barren Islands through at least Sun afternoon. Meanwhile, a second low barrels through the western Bering while its associated front builds across the eastern Bering/Aleutian Chain and Alaska Peninsula through Mon. Essentially, the latter system could either stay over the Bering through Mon or leap right into the western Gulf by Mon night as the front turned into an open trough Mon evening extends over the western Gulf. Clearly, these expected storms will continue to bring wintery conditions, strong gales and storm-force winds especially over the Bering, and increased snow accumulations for the region the next several days. Also, the onset of these systems could easily favor heavy freezing spray for the Bering, and the potential for heavy snow and blowing snow for the Aleutians and Southwest.

AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. PUBLIC . Blizzard Warning 141 195. Winter Storm Warning 121 131. Winter Weather Advisory 101 111 155. Winter Storm Watch 161. High Wind Watch 181 185 187. MARINE . Storm Warning 130 131 176 185 351. Gale Warning 119 120 125 129 132 136-139 150 155 160 165 170 172-175 177-181 352 411-414. Heavy Freezing Spray Warning 129 130 139 160 181 185. FIRE WEATHER . NONE.



SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION . CQ SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA . JW SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS . RC MARINE/LONG TERM . CB/BL


Weather Reporting Stations
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On 03/09/2021 the NDBC primary processing servers were shut off due to a facilities issue. Station pages on the NDBC website are not updating and there is no ETR at this time. We will update this banner as we learn more.
Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
UNLA2 - 9462620- Unalaska, AK 1 mi169 min W 12G22 44°F 39°F1019.8 hPa

Wind History for Unalaska, AK
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Unalaska, Unalaska Airport, AK1 mi59 minVar 410.00 miLight Rain41°F28°F60%1019.5 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for PADU

Wind History from ADU (wind in knots)
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Tide / Current Tables for Dutch Harbor, Alaska (expired 1988-12-31)
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Dutch Harbor
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Tue -- 02:04 AM AKST     -1.16 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 10:10 AM AKST     Sunrise
Tue -- 10:15 AM AKST     4.58 feet High Tide
Tue -- 02:05 PM AKST     Moonrise
Tue -- 03:07 PM AKST     3.56 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 05:45 PM AKST     Sunset
Tue -- 07:00 PM AKST     4.11 feet High Tide
Tue -- 09:41 PM AKST     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Dutch Harbor, Alaska (expired 1988-12-31), Tide feet
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Tide / Current Tables for Kisselen Bay, Beaver Inlet, Unalaska Island, Alaska
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Kisselen Bay
Click for Map
Tue -- 07:17 AM AKST     6.17 feet High Tide
Tue -- 10:09 AM AKST     Sunrise
Tue -- 11:42 AM AKST     3.80 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 02:04 PM AKST     Moonrise
Tue -- 04:05 PM AKST     5.76 feet High Tide
Tue -- 05:46 PM AKST     Sunset
Tue -- 09:42 PM AKST     Moonset
Tue -- 11:53 PM AKST     -1.05 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Kisselen Bay, Beaver Inlet, Unalaska Island, Alaska, Tide feet
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