Thursday, September23, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
False Pass, AK

Version 3.4
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3/30/2021 -- ANZ330 has been split into ANZ331 and ANZ332. Click EDIT in Marine Forecast and select your new zone.
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 7:45AMSunset 7:57PM Thursday September 23, 2021 7:41 PM AKDT (03:41 UTC) Moonrise 8:01PMMoonset 9:55AM Illumination 92% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 17 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near False Pass, AK
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location: 54.93, -164.47     debug


Area Discussion for -
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FXAK68 PAFC 240104 AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Anchorage AK 504 PM AKDT Thu Sep 23 2021

ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS.

An elongated upper-level trough with multiple lows embedded within it continues to be the main weather driver for Southcentral. An upper-level low located east of the Kuskokwim Delta has upper air support from a 95 kt jet streak which is causing the pattern to amplify and pull the ridge located along the Alaska/Yukon borer north and nose west into the interior. This is driving northerly winds across Southcentral and pulling cold arctic air southward. Winds are beginning to ramp up as pressure gradients tighten and cold air advection occurs. A surface low is located northeast of Kodiak Island with its associated front are extending north toward Cordova. Radar shows returns over Prince William Sound and Cook Inlet along the front with precipitation also developing ahead of the front, enhanced by weak upper-level waves lifting north ahead of the main trough. The precipitation is falling as rain along the coast with temperatures this afternoon in the 40s. A mix of rain and snow is falling over parts of the eastern Kenai Peninsula, including Portage and Summit Lake with temperatures near the freezing mark.

A ridge located upstream of the trough continues to build over the Aleutians. Satellite shows a blanket of low stratus over much of the Bering and Aleutians with some clearing over the Alaska Peninsula as the ridge progresses east. Calmer winds are being observed along the western Bering and Aleutians as the ridge influences the area. Farther east, stronger north winds are being observed in the east Bering and along the Alaska Peninsula associated with the trough digging southeast across the domain.

MODEL DISCUSSION.

Models are still struggling with the center location and strength of the surface low in the Gulf. This will affect precipitation type and winds. The 12z GFS has a slower solution with the center over the western portion of Prince William Sound by Friday morning, whereas the Canadian has the center over the eastern portion of Prince William Sound by 09z Friday and then swinging it northwest by Friday morning. The 12z EC shows a faster solution by pushing the low just south of Prince William Sound by Friday evening, but then slows down to match the track of the 18z NAM with the center passing through around the middle of Prince William Sound but with a broader center. Model agreement improves again by Friday morning, with all solutions showing the low stalling out over Prince William Sound. Overall, forecast confidence is below average for the short-term.

AVIATION.

PANC . VFR conditions will persist through this evening. However, ceilings will begin to lower, falling below 5,000 ft this evening and likely to MVFR overnight. Rain is expected to develop over the terminal by late this afternoon or early evening. The rain will likely change to a rain/snow mix and eventually to all snow overnight with the potential for IFR conditions early morning Friday. Snow is likely to continue through Friday morning before mixing with and changing to rain by Friday afternoon. Given temperature at or slightly above freezing, there is low confidence with snow accumulation, if any. With the heaviest precipitation likely occurring overnight and early morning Friday when temperatures are closest to freezing, a slushy inch or so of accumulation is possible.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3: Today through Sunday afternoon) .

An early-season snow event is expected across Southcentral through Friday. A relatively deep, compact low will gradually move northward into Prince William Sound this evening. Precipitation is currently tracking from east to west as its associated front moves onshore. As deeper warm, most southerly flow on the east side of the low is leading to rain is occurring along the Gulf Coast. Slightly cooler temperatures are yielding more snow in the interior Copper River Basin. More moderate precipitation will continue along the coast all the way into Saturday while the road system in the Cooper River Basin will remain dry from early Friday through the weekend.

Precipitation will develop from east to west across Anchorage through this evening. The Upper Hillside will see the highest amounts as no mixing is expected. Totals of 6 to 12 inches are possible through Friday morning with the heaviest occurring between approximately midnight and 6am. Amounts will quickly diminish at lower elevations, with little to no accumulation expected on the west side of town. That all said, the precipitation type remains challenging. If higher QPF amounts verify, this will allow for cooling aloft and wet bulb temperatures to fall to near freezing at the surface, constituting more snow and less mixing. Surface temperatures warming or cooling by even a degree or two could mean the difference between no accumulation or significant accumulations.

Much of the Mat-Su looks to escape the worst of this system, though a slushy inch is possible near Palmer on Friday morning. Of more immediate concern is Turnagain Pass, where snow and blowing snow has already begun. Given the heavier nature of the initial precipitation, temperatures have cooled such that no mixing is occurring. As such, up to a foot is possible over the highest elevations in the Pass and travel will be difficult along the Seward Highway to the Sterling Highway junction through Friday morning.

Fortunately, conditions will be much more quiet by this weekend. Skies will clear late Saturday into Sunday as an offshore flow develops. High temperatures will remain in the 40s.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 through 3: Thursday afternoon through Sunday) .

Fairly quiet weather is expected over Southwest Alaska through the weekend. A nearly stationary trough over Southcentral and a shortwave ridge over the eastern Bering will place Southwest in a dry northerly flow Friday through early Saturday. On Saturday a trough will move south out of Siberia, pushing the shortwave ridge farther into the interior and closing it off briefly. Some light precipitation is possible along the Y-K Delta coast on Saturday, but there is still some uncertainty as to weather the trough will extend far enough to the east to get sustained rain along the coast. On Sunday a secondary trough will move out of Siberia, bringing a quick shot of rain followed by light snow.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3: Thursday afternoon through Sunday) .

Low pressure over the Gulf and a shortwave ridge over the Bering will continue breezy northwesterly winds over the AKPen this evening. A shortwave south of the western Aleutians will bring some rain to central Aleutians on Friday before the system drops into the north Pacific. The main system in the Bering this week will be a shortwave dropping south out of Siberia, this will bring some brisk northerly winds to the Pribilofs and Eastern Aleutians on Saturday, but warm sea surface temperatures will keep precipitation as rain. On Sunday a gale force low will move over the western Aleutians bringing moderate to heavy rain along the front.

MARINE (Sunday through Tuesday). Gulf of Alaska . The beginning of the period will feature some "outflow" conditions as a moderately cold air mass flows from the mainland into the Gulf. On Sunday into Monday, there could be some gale-force gusts, mainly out of Kamishak Bay and the other bays and passes of the Alaska Peninsula. Those quickly subside on Monday as a new front and low pressure system strengthen from the north Pacific. On Tuesday, gale-force winds will develop as the front progresses northward, with the possibility of storm-force winds as the front impinges on the coast. There is some uncertainty in the model guidance in the strength and track of the low pressure system next week, so keep an eye on the forecast trends.

Bering Sea . A gale-force front rolls into the western Aleutians on Sunday, but quickly drop below gales as the front weakens. There will be gusty winds that develop on the south side of the low pressure center, along the Chain. As that system translates into the Gulf of Alaska, broad northwesterly flow sets up with a possible quick hit of gales as a cold air mass flows into the region from Russia.

LONG TERM FORECAST (Monday through Thursday). The extended forecast will be a transition between the incoming system (today/Friday) for Southcentral Alaska and the next low/front coming from the Aleutians/Bering Sea. There is good consensus on the general low track running from the southern Bering Sea into the middle of the Gulf on Tuesday, but there are differences on strength and northward position of the frontal boundary. Either way, impacts from the system looks to remain along the coast if anything. Rain would fall near sea level, changing to snow at elevation. The amount of uncertainty does affect the following system late next week, but the general idea is that another low pressure system will develop in the southwestern Gulf of Alaska, accompanied by slug of arctic air over the southwest mainland. Overall, cooler than normal conditions will persist.

AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. PUBLIC . Winter Weather Advisory: 101. MARINE . Storm Warning: 130 351. Gale Warning: 119 120 125 131 132 137 138 150 352.



SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION . TM SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA . AP SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS . CJ MARINE/LONG TERM . MTL


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Link to 5 minute data for PAKF

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Tide / Current Tables for Cape Mordvinof, Unimak Island, Alaska
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Cape Mordvinof
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Thu -- 03:20 AM AKDT     1.40 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 08:46 AM AKDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 10:24 AM AKDT     5.03 feet High Tide
Thu -- 11:55 AM AKDT     Moonset
Thu -- 03:51 PM AKDT     2.72 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 08:52 PM AKDT     Sunset
Thu -- 09:17 PM AKDT     4.98 feet High Tide
Thu -- 10:00 PM AKDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
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3.32.51.81.41.51.92.63.44.24.7554.63.93.32.92.72.93.44.14.754.94.4

Tide / Current Tables for Cape Sarichef, Unimak Island, Alaska
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Cape Sarichef
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Thu -- 02:05 AM AKDT     1.31 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 08:48 AM AKDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 09:34 AM AKDT     3.98 feet High Tide
Thu -- 11:56 AM AKDT     Moonset
Thu -- 02:36 PM AKDT     2.54 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 08:27 PM AKDT     3.94 feet High Tide
Thu -- 08:54 PM AKDT     Sunset
Thu -- 10:03 PM AKDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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21.51.31.41.72.22.83.33.73.943.73.32.92.62.62.733.43.73.93.93.63

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