Thursday, October21, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Saxman, AK

Version 3.4
NOTICE
3/30/2021 -- ANZ330 has been split into ANZ331 and ANZ332. Click EDIT in Marine Forecast and select your new zone.
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 8:14AMSunset 6:23PM Thursday October 21, 2021 1:49 PM PDT (20:49 UTC) Moonrise 6:06PMMoonset 8:37AM Illumination 99% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 16 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PKZ036 Clarence Strait- 415 Am Akdt Thu Oct 21 2021
.gale warning late tonight...
Today..N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain.
Tonight..SE wind 25 kt increasing to gale to 45 kt late. Seas 5 ft building to 9 ft late. NEar ocean entrances, seas 9 ft building to 22 ft late. Rain.
Fri..SE gale to 45 kt becoming S wind 30 kt in the afternoon. Seas 9 ft subsiding to 6 ft. NEar ocean entrances, seas 20 ft subsiding to 10 ft in the afternoon. Rain.
Fri night..SE gale to 35 kt. Gusts to 40 kt out of interior passes. Seas 7 ft, except 16 ft near ocean entrances. Rain.
Sat..SE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
Sun..SE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
Mon..SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Saxman, AK
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location: 55.33, -131.63     debug


Area Discussion for -
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FXAK67 PAJK 211452 AFDAJK

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Juneau AK 652 AM AKDT Thu Oct 21 2021

SHORT TERM. /Through Friday night/Most of our examination dealt with the now hurricane-force low that spins well offshore of the Washington coast. This low churns north to lie just outside of Dixon Entrance in less than 24 hours. We upgraded the high wind watch to a warning for higher confidence in a marginal high wind event of gusts to 60 mph.

GEFS ensembles indicate quite the realm of sustained winds of around 40 mph late Thursday night into Friday morning across the southern Panhandle. As the storm moves north, the region of stronger winds becomes smaller as more members suggest weakening. Coordination with OPC, agreed on max wind speeds of around 55 mph just offshore of Prince of Wales Island between 15 and 18Z Friday. Examination of atmospheric stability from model soundings also indicate periods where stability lapses, allowing the strongest winds aloft to more efficiently mix to the surface. Mid level lapse rates also suggested much the same with values of around 6.5 C/km. This all points to the greatest threat around daybreak.

Farther north, communities on Baranof Island and Sumner Strait and northern Stephens Passage could see impactful winds from this system as well. But it is less certain. Therefore, high wind watches were issued to account for the uncertainty from Friday morning to Friday afternoon. The GFS tracks this storm all the way to Yakutat. While we have added wind gusts to 40 mph, we do not have the confidence to go watch at this time, but this prospect is something to be studied. Likewise arguments could be made of mountain wave/gradient winds induced near Downtown Juneau on Friday as the system rides northward.

As we have advertised the difficulty of predicting strength/track/timing of multiple systems riding northwestward along our coast all week, yet another system rides up 12 to 18 hours behind the first. Latest guidance hints that the Friday night system is almost as strong as the Friday morning's system. But a slightly more offshore track may save us. The challenge will be messaging should this one also threaten with impactful winds so soon after the first.

Rain is definitely the supporting character in this forecast, contrasted with wind as the star. Rain exits the region across the north this morning, brought in by Wednesday's system. But it reenters the south this morning as bands from the approaching low cross Dixon Entrance. While there might be periods of moderate rain over the south, significant amounts are definitely not expected. Rain becomes even lighter as it spreads northward into this evening. But after the rain ends this morning for the north, we should expect at least six hours worth of dry weather before chances begin to rise again.

Plenty of warm air advection pumped in by each passing system will limit snow to higher elevations. Deep up Lynn Canal, some northerly advection from Canada may keep snow levels just below pass level. But amounts will be less than an inch tonight and Friday. Low temperatures at sea level will largely be 40 and above with highs approaching 50 in the north and exceeding it in the south.

LONG TERM. /Saturday through Thursday as of 10 pm Wednesday/ Models in general agreement about a second feature either very early Saturday morning the midday Friday pulling in behind the Friday system. The surface low will be moving into the eastern gulf and then pulling back to the northwest meaning that any northward will be slow and the associated frontal band will fall apart while over the panhandle Saturday and Saturday night.

Sunday to Monday the idea persists in the mid to long range models of the energy moving out of the central gulf or getting absorbed into a low undercutting the gulf that is headed towards the Pacific Northwest. As a result of the undercutting feature, the northeast gulf coast and panhandle should expect a rarity for the fall season, dry weather. From later Sunday to either Tuesday or Wednesday dry weather, breaks in the cloud cover. This could mean patchy fog overnight into early mornings will need to keep a watch on this as early next week gets closer.

It is probably that another low moving into the central gulf around Tuesday bring another around of rain and some wind to southeast Alaska.

Overall for the mid to long range portion of the forecast temperatures will be seasonable. When there clouds around lows int he lower to mid 30s, and during the break period nearer the northern panhandle lows into the mid to upper 20s. High temperatures for the week in the mid to upper 40s generally for the panhandle.

AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. PUBLIC . High Wind Watch from late tonight through Friday afternoon for AKZ023-026. High Wind Warning from midnight tonight to noon AKDT Friday for AKZ027-028. MARINE . Storm Warning for PKZ041. Gale Warning for PKZ036-042-052-310. Small Craft Advisory for PKZ022-033-035-043-051.



JWA/Bezenek

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Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
KECA2 - 9450460 - Ketchikan, AK 0 mi68 min E 12G18 53°F 49°F995.9 hPa
SLXA2 1 mi27 min E 16G30 55°F 991.1 hPa42°F
SXXA2 2 mi27 min E 28G46 53°F 991.7 hPa45°F
KEXA2 3 mi28 min WNW 4.1G11 58°F 991.9 hPa44°F
GIXA2 16 mi28 min NNE 6G16 50°F 992.1 hPa45°F
MRYA2 29 mi28 min NNW 16G25 50°F 993.7 hPa45°F
SPXA2 36 mi27 min NE 12G16 52°F 993.1 hPa45°F
LCNA2 - Lincoln Rock, AK 75 mi40 min E 2.9G4.1 48°F 996.7 hPa40°F
46145 - Central Dixon Entrance Buoy 78 mi110 min ENE 29G37 51°F 50°F8 ft991 hPa (-4.2)

Wind History for Ketchikan, AK
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Last
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SE9
G14
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G23
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NE9
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G24
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G24
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G18
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G18
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G18
E10
G19
E9
G18

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Ketchikan, Ketchikan International Airport, AK4 mi1.9 hrsSE 15 G 337.00 miLight Rain55°F43°F63%997.3 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for PAKT

Wind History from AKT (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS7S9SE13
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--SE14----------4------0N50W7SE15
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1 day agoSE13
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2 days agoS10SE8SE10SE9S8S6S7S8
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Tide / Current Tables for Ketchikan, Alaska
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Ketchikan
Click for Map
Thu -- 01:46 AM AKDT     15.48 feet High Tide
Thu -- 07:29 AM AKDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 07:37 AM AKDT     1.43 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 08:37 AM AKDT     Moonset
Thu -- 01:48 PM AKDT     16.67 feet High Tide
Thu -- 05:31 PM AKDT     Sunset
Thu -- 06:06 PM AKDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 08:04 PM AKDT     -0.91 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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12.5
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14.9
2
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15.4
3
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14
4
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11
5
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7.3
6
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3.9
7
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1.8
8
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1.6
9
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3.2
10
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6.4
11
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10.1
12
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13.6
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16
2
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16.6
3
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15.2
4
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12
5
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7.8
6
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3.5
7
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0.3
8
pm
-0.9
9
pm
-0
10
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2.7
11
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6.4


Tide / Current Tables for Ward Cove, Revillagigedo Channel, Alaska
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Ward Cove
Click for Map
Thu -- 01:40 AM AKDT     15.78 feet High Tide
Thu -- 07:30 AM AKDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 07:34 AM AKDT     1.43 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 08:38 AM AKDT     Moonset
Thu -- 01:42 PM AKDT     16.97 feet High Tide
Thu -- 05:31 PM AKDT     Sunset
Thu -- 06:06 PM AKDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 08:01 PM AKDT     -0.91 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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15.3
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15.7
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14.1
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3.8
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3.3
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0.2
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-0.9
9
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0.1
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2.9
11
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6.8


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NOTE: This section has been updated as of 1/26/2021. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may use the EDIT function to update your location.
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