Saturday, October16, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Craig, AK

Version 3.4
NOTICE
3/30/2021 -- ANZ330 has been split into ANZ331 and ANZ332. Click EDIT in Marine Forecast and select your new zone.
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 7:35AMSunset 5:50PM Saturday October 16, 2021 12:23 AM AKDT (08:23 UTC) Moonrise 5:24PMMoonset 2:14AM Illumination 77% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 10 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PKZ041 Dixon Entrance To Cape Decision- 400 Pm Akdt Fri Oct 15 2021 Updated
.small craft advisory early this evening and Saturday...
Tonight..Light winds becoming se 15 kt. Seas 8 ft subsiding.
Sat..NE wind 15 kt. Seas building to 8 ft. W swell in the afternoon.
Sat night..E wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft.
Sun..SE wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft. W swell.
Sun night..SE wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
Mon..SE gale to 40 kt. Seas 18 ft building to 25 ft.
Tue..SE gale to 40 kt. Seas 24 ft.
Wed..SE wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Craig, AK
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location: 55.35, -133.32     debug


Area Discussion for -
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FXAK67 PAJK 152228 AFDAJK

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Juneau AK 228 PM AKDT Fri Oct 15 2021

SHORT TERM. /Through Sunday/ Rather quiet short range period today with diminishing showers to start out with followed by a period of offshore flow and drier weather for this weekend. Currently showers are ongoing for the northern panhandle from Petersburg northward as a weak shortwave and embedded vorticity max moves through the area. Some lower ceilings and visibilities have been noted with these showers, but they move through rather quickly, not dropping more then a few hundredths of an inch of rain.

Some southerly wind still lingers around northern Lynn Canal and Skagway this afternoon as well. It isn't as strong as yesterday at this time, but gusts to 35 mph are still being observed. These winds should diminish overnight and Otherwise winds are mostly 15 kt or less across the area right now.

Not much change to the overall forecast today. Mostly just local effect edits for winds and temperature. The showers over the north will gradually diminishing tonight as onshore flow gradually weakens and then switches to offshore early Sat morning. Some cloud cover will likely linger into Sat morning which should keep overnight lows mostly above freezing except for some isolated areas. However, any substantial breaks in the clouds may cause temperatures to drop. There is also the possibility of fog formation in some areas giving the low level moisture, but again it depends on if any substantial breaks form in the cloud cover overnight. Kept patchy fog wording as a result.

Offshore flow continues into Sun with dry weather and clearer skies expected. There is no substantial cold air in Canada with this though so any outflow winds will mainly be pressure gradient driven. Highest winds will likely be around 15 to 20 kt at most.

LONG TERM. /Sunday through Friday night as of 10PM/ . For Sunday, the beginning of our forecast period, ridging will be in control with general offshore flow, decreased cloudiness, and relatively light winds over the Panhandle and Inner Channels as a Gale-force front begins to move into the eastern Gulf from the west. Some patchy fog may be possible Sunday morning and Monday evening, due to decent radiational cooling allowed by the decreased clouds and lighter winds.

The newest operational models along with the GFS & ECMWF ensemble means keep the track of the early to mid-week Gale-force front a bit farther westward than they did last night, which will decrease rain distribution/totals and decrease wind magnitude over the Panhandle for that timeframe. The aforementioned low looks to maintain similar strength as we were seeing last night. Middle to high end Gales look to be likely over the eastern Gulf waters. Some small craft winds look to be possible along the outer coast and near ocean entrances of the Inner Channels with that system. Winds over the Panhandle look like they will remain at 15-20 knots or less for the entire forecast period.

This system has a long and deep fetch of moisture stretching all the way from the tropical Pacific to work with. Model forecast IVT and PW values, and model forecast 700mb moisture advection are indicative that this is an atmospheric river, as well. If the system slides farther eastward and hangs around for a while, impactful precipitation amounts could be received over the Panhandle.

After a cold end to the weekend, 850mb model forecast temperature advection along with MOS guidance indicate that we will have warming surface temperatures from Monday, onward. Model thicknesses, snow levels, and surface temperatures will be low enough for any precipitation that falls over the extreme northeastern Panhandle due to any overrunning that may occur as the system approaches to be snow. Chances of that look quite low as it looks, currently, due to the low track being farther west than it looked, yesterday, delaying and not allowing much moisture into the Panhandle into mid-week with this system. MOS forecast snow accumulation stayed at or near zero for the entirety of the long-term forecast period for the Panhandle, due to lack of ample moisture over the area for the beginning and warm temperatures for the latter half of the week. The only exception will be the usual White Pass / Klondike Highway area for the latter half of the week, which may get light snow amounts.

Forecast confidence is generally average for the long-term forecast period. There was considerable spread in the models from day 7(Wednesday), onward. Therefore, we phased toward WPC guidance for that point, onward. A NAM/GFS/ECMWF/CMC blend was used before that time. Model agreement was quite good for the first half of the forecast period.

AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. PUBLIC . None. MARINE . Small Craft Advisory for PKZ012-041>043.



EAL/JLC

Visit us at http://www.weather.gov/Juneau


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
CRGA2 13 mi59 min N 1G4.1 39°F 1009.1 hPa39°F
LCNA2 - Lincoln Rock, AK 59 mi73 min SSE 1G1.9 43°F 1008.9 hPa43°F
CDEA2 - Cape Decision, AK 62 mi61 min ENE 7G12 43°F 1009.5 hPa38°F
46145 - Central Dixon Entrance Buoy 83 mi83 min ESE 5.8G9.7 47°F 51°F6 ft1008.5 hPa (-1.2)

Wind History for Ketchikan, AK
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Klawock - Klawock Airport, AK19 mi30 minSSE 310.00 miFair36°F34°F93%1008.6 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for PAKW

Wind History from AKW (wind in knots)
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Last 24hr----S50--0------0----00----NE3NE3----0----S3
1 day ago--S6--S8S7----S6----------------------0----NE3--
2 days ago--S8--S8
G20
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Tide / Current Tables for Cape Flores, Ulloa Channel, Alaska
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Cape Flores
Click for Map
Sat -- 02:14 AM AKDT     Moonset
Sat -- 04:29 AM AKDT     0.50 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 07:26 AM AKDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 11:02 AM AKDT     9.04 feet High Tide
Sat -- 05:04 PM AKDT     2.66 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 05:23 PM AKDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 05:49 PM AKDT     Sunset
Sat -- 10:52 PM AKDT     8.85 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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Tide / Current Tables for Port Santa Cruz, Suemez Island, Alaska
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Port Santa Cruz
Click for Map
Sat -- 02:15 AM AKDT     Moonset
Sat -- 04:25 AM AKDT     0.50 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 07:26 AM AKDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 10:59 AM AKDT     9.24 feet High Tide
Sat -- 05:00 PM AKDT     2.66 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 05:23 PM AKDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 05:50 PM AKDT     Sunset
Sat -- 10:49 PM AKDT     9.05 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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NOTE: This section has been updated as of 1/26/2021. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may use the EDIT function to update your location.
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