Thursday, January20, 2022
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Marine Weather and Tides
Point Baker, AK

Version 3.4
NOTICE
3/30/2021 -- ANZ330 has been split into ANZ331 and ANZ332. Click EDIT in Marine Forecast and select your new zone.
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 8:22AMSunset 3:55PM Thursday January 20, 2022 2:39 PM AKST (23:39 UTC) Moonrise 8:13PMMoonset 10:57AM Illumination 88% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 18 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PKZ034 Frederick Sound- 836 Am Akst Thu Jan 20 2022 Updated
Today..SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
Tonight..SE wind 20 kt. Gusts to 35 kt late. Seas 5 ft. Rain.
Fri..S wind 25 kt. Gusts to 40 kt. Seas 6 ft. Rain.
Fri night..SE wind 25 kt. Gusts to 40 kt. Seas 5 ft. Rain.
Sat..SE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
Sun..SW wind 15 kt becoming se. Seas 3 ft.
Mon..SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Point Baker, AK
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location: 56.65, -133.72     debug


Area Discussion for -
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FXAK67 PAJK 201512 AFDAJK

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Juneau AK 612 AM AKST Thu Jan 20 2022

SHORT TERM. Satellite imagery and surface analysis show weakening low over the S panhandle continuing to push E as it weakens early this morning. Majority of precip is mainly liquid this morning with the exception of N Lynn Canal where Haines and Skagway remain cold enough for ptype to remain snow. Some mixed precip possible through this morning mainly N of Sumner Strait but with no significant accumulations expected dropped the winter weather advisory. Forecast challenge today will be mainly sky cover. Obs at elevation show nearly isothermal or a slight inversion so expect patchy fog this morning to improve to a MVFR stratus deck but persist through the day. Models remain in good agreement through the period with a gale force low moving N into the gulf advecting copious amounts of moisture into the NE Gulf Coast beginning this evening. Ensemble standard anomaly tables indicate IVT values of 6-8 standard deviations above normal with heaviest precip focused over the N central panhandle Friday into Saturday. Overall, Thu will be driest day albeit not completely dry with increasing precip chances and amounts beginning this evening into the overnight with forecast confidence remaining high.

LONG TERM. /Friday onward/ . Warming temperatures, rising snow levels, and heavy rain still in store for the end of the week and into the weekend. Still differences in position of incoming atmospheric river and rainfall totals. Flood Watches have been issued for most of the northern and central AK Panhandle due to the heavy rain on snow and rising snow levels.

Mid level ridge will move over the AK Panhandle, feeding in warm SW flow and will be main feature for the mid range. On Friday a gale force occluded front tracks into the AK Gulf from the SE with the parent low moving in S of the Aleutians. This is setting up an atmospheric river for Friday into Saturday. IVT values in excess of 800 kg/m/s are indicative of the substantial amount of moisture. Best estimate is heaviest precip will hit the NE Gulf Coast and northern Panhandle then shift southward through Sunday while weakening and diminishing.

Temperatures across the board warm into the 40s, and even at higher elevations getting into the mid to upper 30s. Snow levels of over 6k ft hit the southern region and into the 2K to 4K for the central and northern locations. Majority of precip will to change over to all rain and even a mix at White Pass. 850 temperature anomalies upwards of 14 Deg C are indicated by most ensembles.

Rain totals: Highest 12 hour amounts upwards of 2 inches for the NE gulf coast with closer to half an inch to the south. These amounts are still in the 1 to 2 year recurrent intervals. Total QPF amounts from Friday into Sunday have similar geographical coverage with 6 to 8 inches over NE gulf coast, 4 to 5 for central areas and 1 to 2 for the south. These values are closer to 1 year recurrence intervals. With the previous heavy snow pack that remains, even with last weeks warm up, and new snow mid week, increased hydrology issues are likely: ponding on roadways, river rises, nuisance flooding and so forth. Except for the higher elevations no concerns for snow accumulation through the weekend.

Models still showing differences in how far south the AR slides. For now kept previous forecast mostly as is with some lowering of PoP Sunday.

Beyond the weekend, a break in precipitation for some of the S and central panhandle is possible through much of Monday. It does look increasingly likely that another system will move across the gulf and into the panhandle between Monday and Tuesday, delivering still more precipitation. Past this time period, a cool down is looking increasingly likely for the panhandle, though at this time don't anticipate it being as bad as some of the previous stretches of cold weather. As is often the case, ensembles offer a broad picture, but pinning down exact details remains a challenge this far out.

AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. PUBLIC . Flood Watch from late tonight through Saturday evening for AKZ019>026. Flood Watch from late tonight through Saturday evening for AKZ017-018. MARINE . Gale Warning for PKZ041>043-051-052. Small Craft Advisory for PKZ022-033-035-036.



BC/PRB/GFS

Visit us at http://www.weather.gov/Juneau


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
FFIA2 - Five Finger, AK 43 mi40 min SSE 8.9G13 41°F 1017.2 hPa (+5.6)
CDEA2 - Cape Decision, AK 50 mi78 min W 21G23 41°F 1018.5 hPa38°F
PLXA2 - 9451054 - Port Alexander, AK 56 mi58 min SSW 1.9G7 40°F 44°F1018.4 hPa

Wind History for Port Alexander, AK
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Last 24 hrNW3
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Kake - Kake Airport, AK25 mi2.7 hrsE 710.00 miOvercast39°F37°F93%1016.9 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for PAFE

Wind History from AFE (wind in knots)
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Last 24 hrE8E7E7
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E7E5E5E5NE3NE4NE3N3W5000E43E4E7E6E6E7E6E3
1 day ago00E3NE3NE4NE3E70NE3NE3E30000SE30E5SE5E9E9SE3E3E6
2 days agoNE30NE4NE3NE3NE4E5NE4NE40E30E5E400E400E30000

Tide / Current Tables for Beck Island, Alaska
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Beck Island
Click for Map
Thu -- 02:27 AM AKST     13.13 feet High Tide
Thu -- 08:12 AM AKST     Sunrise
Thu -- 08:26 AM AKST     3.51 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 09:57 AM AKST     Moonset
Thu -- 02:05 PM AKST     14.44 feet High Tide
Thu -- 03:59 PM AKST     Sunset
Thu -- 07:13 PM AKST     Moonrise
Thu -- 08:56 PM AKST     -1.15 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Beck Island, Alaska, Tide feet
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8.1
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11.2
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12.9
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12.9
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11.6
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9.4
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6.9
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4.8
8
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3.6
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3.8
10
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5.5
11
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8.2
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11.1
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13.4
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14.4
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13.8
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11.8
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8.7
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5.1
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1.9
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-0.4
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-1.1
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-0
11
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2.8


Tide / Current Tables for Monte Carlo Island, Alaska
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Monte Carlo Island
Click for Map
Thu -- 02:21 AM AKST     11.93 feet High Tide
Thu -- 07:58 AM AKST     3.51 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 08:12 AM AKST     Sunrise
Thu -- 09:57 AM AKST     Moonset
Thu -- 01:59 PM AKST     13.24 feet High Tide
Thu -- 04:00 PM AKST     Sunset
Thu -- 07:13 PM AKST     Moonrise
Thu -- 08:28 PM AKST     -1.15 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Monte Carlo Island, Alaska, Tide feet
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8.1
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10.6
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3.5


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NOTE: This section has been updated as of 1/26/2021. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may use the EDIT function to update your location.
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