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Marine Weather and Tides
Akhiok, AK

Version 3.4
NOTICE
3/30/2021 -- ANZ330 has been split into ANZ331 and ANZ332. Click EDIT in Marine Forecast and select your new zone.
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 7:55AMSunset 7:44PM Monday September 27, 2021 8:06 PM AKDT (04:06 UTC) Moonrise 8:27PMMoonset 2:21PM Illumination 58% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 21 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PKZ138 Shelikof Strait- 314 Pm Akdt Mon Sep 27 2021
.small craft advisory tonight...
Tonight..NE wind increasing to 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
Tue..NE wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
Tue night..NW wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
Wed..W wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
Wed night..SW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
Thu..SW wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
Fri..NW wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
Sat..NW wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Akhiok, AK
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location: 56.9, -154.25     debug


Area Discussion for -
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FXAK68 PAFC 280319 AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Anchorage AK 719 PM AKDT Mon Sep 27 2021

ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS. A vertically stacked low over the southern Bering Sea is tracking eastward under the influence of a zonal subtropical jet just to the south. There are some small areas of gale force winds, but this storm is generally in a weakening phase. The core of rain and stronger winds is spreading eastward from the eastern across the eastern Aleutians and Alaska Peninsula. A cold dry airmass remains in place out ahead of the storm over southern Alaska. It was a chilly morning under clear skies, with widespread lows in the teens to 20s, and even some single digit temperatures in the Paxson area. Offshore flow and gap winds are weakening along the north Gulf Coast/Prince William Sound as pressure gradients slacken with the exit of a low way down along the British Columbia coast. Aside from some clouds moving into Bristol Bay ahead of the Bering Sea storm, sunshine continues to dominate southern Alaska.

MODEL DISCUSSION. Models remain in great agreement with overall evolution of large scale features over the next three days. However, some differences develop Wednesday night/Thursday with the exact track of a deep low across the central Bering Sea as well as with location of downstream cyclogenesis in the vicinity of Bristol Bay. Model performance is usually pretty good in cases of such strong upper level forcing. However, strong and dynamic features can also have easily cause a shift in successive features. Thus, forecast confidence is high through Wednesday, then drops with the details for Thursday, though the overall trends should be reliable.

AVIATION. PANC . VFR conditions and light winds will persist.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3: Today through Thursday afternoon) .

Tonight through tomorrow morning, gusty outflow winds in Whittier, the Copper River Delta, and Valdez will subside as the pressure gradient along the coast weakens. With a low moving from the Bering Sea into the Gulf, light rain is likely overnight on Kodiak Island. However, rain chances stay low and skies remain mostly clear for the rest of Southcentral as a strong jet keeps the low further south and moves it quickly eastward.

Clear skies over much of Southcentral will lead to cool nighttime temperatures through Wednesday night. Temperatures will drop into the 20s in the interior, with slightly higher temperatures near the coast due to the warmer ocean waters. During the daytime, clear skies will bring temperatures back into the 40s, though conditions will remain colder in the Copper River Basin. Winds will be light.

The pattern changes as a front moves across the Southwest and into Southcentral Thursday morning. Uncertainty remains with the timing of the front, as the NAM and GEM push it into the area more quickly than the GFS. For now, moist southerly flow behind the front look to bring moderate to heavy rain over parts of the Western Kenai Peninsula and Prince William Sound on Thursday.

SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 through 3).

A stacked low and attendant front will cross over the AKPEN into the Gulf overnight tonight, bringing rain mainly to areas south of Bristol Bay through early tomorrow morning. A shortwave ridge will move into place in the wake of the low, keeping light northerly flow and clear skies around for the rest of the Southwest tonight through tomorrow morning. Shallow, patchy fog will again be possible over the Y-K Delta where the boundary layer decouples and winds let up during the early morning hours. A shortwave trough will bring increasing chances for rain showers over as it moves inland over the Y-K Delta, with light snow showers possible farther inland and over the higher terrain of the Kuskokwim Mountains through Wednesday morning.

By Wednesday evening, a front stemming out from a powerful storm to perhaps hurricane force low will move onshore, bringing moderate rainfall to coastal locations along with gusty 30 to 40 mph southeast winds. A rush of southerly flow out ahead of the frontal boundary should advect enough warm air inland to keep precipitation falling mostly in the form of rain at low elevations, but several inches of snow can be expected over the Kuskokwim Mountains and Alaska Range through Thursday night. A triple-point low will also form along the front at some point over Bristol Bay as it lifts north on Thursday, continuing to focus areas of rain and higher elevation snow over much of the interior through Thursday night.

SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3).

A stacked low pressure system will exit into the Gulf by early tomorrow morning, with associated rain along the southern AKPen and Eastern Aleutians moving out by tomorrow morning. Gusty northerly winds around small craft levels will continue along and south of the Aleutian Chain as a ridge builds in upstream over the western Bering, with widely scattered showers following a shortwave and weak, compact surface low moving around the ridge through Tuesday night over the northern Bering.

Attention quickly shifts to an impactful system that will affect much of the Western Aleutians/Bering from Wednesday through at least Thursday night. A deep polar low will drop into the Bering from Siberia and phase with a westerly shortwave moving off of the Kamchatka Peninsula on Wednesday, resulting in a rapidly deepening cyclone that could bottom out as low as 960 mb as it moves over or near St Matthew Island by Wednesday night. A surge of Arctic air will wrap around the west side of the low and become unstable as it becomes modified by the warm sea surface, helping to support a broad swath of storm force winds developing west of St Matthew Island on Wednesday, with hurricane force winds remaining a possibility over a small corridor west of the center from late Wednesday into early Thursday. Storm force winds will spread south into the western Bering as the maturing and occluding system accelerating south on Thursday, decreasing to high-end gales as the low reaches the Eastern Aleutians on Thursday evening. Widespread rain showers with near the low and its front can be expected throughout the Pribilofs and Aleutians from Wednesday to Thursday night.

MARINE (Days 3 through 5: Thursday through Saturday).

Thursday begins with a low in the northern Bering producing widespread gales and large waves across much of the central and southern Bering Sea. A swath of storm-force winds close to the center will accompany this low through Thursday afternoon as it dives southward toward the eastern Aleutian Islands. Seas 20 to 35 ft are possible in the central and southern Bering through Thursday night. As the low begins to cross the Aleutian Chain into the North Pacific Thursday night, gusty gap winds potentially to storm force will develop through the eastern Aleutians. Ahead of this low, a front with gale force winds is also expected to push from Bristol Bay Thursday morning across the AKPen into the western Gulf through Thursday night before diminishing. On Friday morning, the situation becomes more uncertain, however potential impacts are most likely in the Gulf. A new swath of gales may develop with the first low swinging back northward from the North Pacific. Gales may become widespread from Bristol Bay and across the Gulf of Alaska, with additional strong gap winds along the AKPen as the low restrengthens Friday afternoon. There will be the potential for storm force winds wrapping this low sometime late Friday or early Saturday, with wave heights approaching 30 ft. Coverage of strong winds and large waves should begin to decrease on Saturday as the low moves inland somewhere along the Gulf coast.

.LONG TERM DISCUSSION (Days 4 through 7: Friday through Monday) .

Active weather is expected with an amplified upper-level longwave trough in place over mainland Alaska for the weekend period. The main feature of interest will be a cyclone crossing the AKPen on Friday intensifying as it enters the Gulf. In the lee of the low, expect strong, gusty gap winds along the AKPen and western Gulf coast through Saturday, with the low helping to pull cold Arctic air southward across Southwest Alaska and the AKPen. While the exact storm track remains uncertain, this low will drive northward, pushing ashore somewhere along the north Gulf Coast sometime on Saturday, bringing strong winds and rain to the north Gulf Coast as well as rain and snow inland over Southcentral. However, the exact placement of the low will determine which areas and the timing of the strongest impacts. Conditions on Sunday will become milder, though a lingering low in the Gulf and remnant troughing aloft will likely keep Southcentral cloudy with showers and snow flurries continuing. A shortwave ridge looks to build eastward across the Bering on Sunday, promoting calmer conditions. This will be followed by the extratropical remnants of Typhoon Mindulle entering the western Bering Sunday night. There is decent agreement among global models that this remnant cyclone will push into the central Bering on Monday with a central pressure bottoming out in the 950s.

AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. PUBLIC . NONE. MARINE . Gale Warning: 174 177 178 411 413.



SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION . SEB SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA . KC SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS . AS MARINE/LONG TERM . CQ


Weather Reporting Stations
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On 03/09/2021 the NDBC primary processing servers were shut off due to a facilities issue. Station pages on the NDBC website are not updating and there is no ETR at this time. We will update this banner as we learn more.
Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
ALIA2 - 9457804 - Alitak, AK 0 mi48 min E 18 G 22 45°F 49°F992.1 hPa
46077 - Shelikof Strait, AK 69 mi76 min NE 9.7 G 12 47°F 48°F1 ft994.3 hPa (-3.7)40°F

Wind History for Alitak, AK
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure

Link to 5 minute data for PAKH

Wind History from AKH (wind in knots)
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Tide / Current Tables for Lazy Bay, Alitak Bay, Alaska
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Lazy Bay
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Tue -- 01:25 AM AKDT     2.34 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 07:42 AM AKDT     7.49 feet High Tide
Tue -- 08:15 AM AKDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 12:52 PM AKDT     5.92 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 05:24 PM AKDT     Moonset
Tue -- 05:58 PM AKDT     Last Quarter
Tue -- 06:59 PM AKDT     10.24 feet High Tide
Tue -- 07:58 PM AKDT     Sunset
Tue -- 11:09 PM AKDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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3.12.42.53.24.35.56.77.37.57.26.96.46.15.96.37.18.19.19.910.29.997.76.2

Tide / Current Tables for Moser Bay (Trap Point), Alaska
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Moser Bay (Trap Point)
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Tue -- 01:39 AM AKDT     2.34 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 07:53 AM AKDT     7.38 feet High Tide
Tue -- 08:15 AM AKDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 01:06 PM AKDT     5.92 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 05:25 PM AKDT     Moonset
Tue -- 05:58 PM AKDT     Last Quarter
Tue -- 07:10 PM AKDT     10.09 feet High Tide
Tue -- 07:57 PM AKDT     Sunset
Tue -- 11:07 PM AKDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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3.42.52.4345.26.47.27.47.26.96.56.15.96.16.97.88.89.610.19.99.17.96.5

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