Thursday, January20, 2022
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Marine Weather and Tides
Port Lions, AK

Version 3.4
NOTICE
3/30/2021 -- ANZ330 has been split into ANZ331 and ANZ332. Click EDIT in Marine Forecast and select your new zone.
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 9:43AMSunset 4:37PM Thursday January 20, 2022 1:57 PM AKST (22:57 UTC) Moonrise 7:29PMMoonset 10:19AM Illumination 88% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 18 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PKZ137 Marmot Bay- 401 Am Akst Thu Jan 20 2022
.small craft advisory through tonight...
Today..E wind 10 kt increasing to 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas 3 ft building to 9 ft in the afternoon. Snow and rain.
Tonight..E wind 30 kt diminishing to 20 kt after midnight. Seas 12 ft subsiding to 5 ft after midnight. Rain and snow.
Fri..SE wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft subsiding to 4 ft in the afternoon. Rain.
Fri night..SE wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
Sat through Mon..S wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Port Lions, AK
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location: 57.98, -152.75     debug


Area Discussion for -
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FXAK68 PAFC 201519 AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Anchorage AK 619 AM AKST Thu Jan 20 2022

ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS.

A complex upper-level pattern dominates the region as a broad longwave trough extends south across the Bering and Aleutians and into the North Pacific. Downstream, an upper-level ridge stretches up from the Northeast Pacific across Southeast Alaska and into the Canadian Arctic. Several shortwaves propagating through this pattern are helping to draw warm, moist air northward from the tropical Pacific. The strongest of these shortwaves sits atop a 965 mb low just south of the eastern Aleutians. Out ahead of the low, a stream of tropical moisture is evident on water vapor imagery, feeding a front pushing across the Aleutian Islands and Alaska Peninsula, bringing mixed precipitation to the region. Microwave passes show 1.5 inches of precipitable water (200 to 300 percent of normal) streaming north along this front. This warm, southerly flow has also built a ridge which has kicked yesterday's snow-producing shortwave in Southcentral out eastward. As a result, precipitation has ended in all but the eastern portions of the Copper River Basin, while low stratus lingers around Cook Inlet in its wake. Stratus also covers much of Southwest Alaska, producing some flurries in isolated locations.

MODEL DISCUSSION.

Models remain in good synoptic agreement through the short term. There is also increasing agreement with regard to the timing and placement of upper-level shortwaves and surface lows tracking northward through the broad southerly flow. There are still some slight differences in the placement of these features, however. The most significant impact will be their influence on the precipitation type forecast across Southern Alaska. The biggest challenge will be timing the change over from snow to rain, as well as the areal coverage of any freezing precipitation for both Southwest and Southcentral Alaska for Friday into Saturday.

AVIATION.

PANC . MVFR cigs are expected to begin to lift late this morning, giving way to VFR cigs higher than 5000' by this afternoon as northerly flow develops. Ceilings will lower again early Friday morning with periods of snow accompanied by MVFR cigs/vsby possible by late Friday morning.

SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2).

The weak system that brought snow to a large portion of Southcentral yesterday has moved eastward and out of the area. This morning arrives with a mix of either low stratus or clear skies for much of the region. All this will give way over the course of the day to the next system which is moving quickly into the area from the south-southwest. This system has a lot of warm air with it and will turn precipitation for all coastal areas to rain by tomorrow.

There are two big forecast challenges with this system. The first is how much downsloping will occur on the lee side of the mountains. At this time, it looks like the area from Anchorage northward through Talkeetna will mostly downslope out. The best time for precipitation in these areas will be Friday afternoon as an upper level wave embedded in the southwesterly flow moves through.

The second big forecast challenge is with precipitation type Friday into Saturday. The most likely area for there to be freezing rain will be in the Copper River Basin. The Edgerton highway looks to be in a spot where the cold air will remain trapped at the surface while the above freezing air aloft moves overhead Friday afternoon through Friday night. This area may stretch northward to include the Glennallen area Friday night. By Saturday, the southerly winds will have kicked in and that will bring temperatures at lower elevations of the Copper River Basin above freezing.

The surface flow from Anchorage through the Mat-Su valleys will remain northerly until Friday evening when there will be a pronounced southeasterly push. This will bring Turnagain Arm winds into the Anchorage Bowl and cause temperatures to jump above freezing after being mostly kept at bay for most of the day on Friday. In fact, much of Southcentral Alaska will see warming through the night Friday night due to southerly surface winds becoming more widespread.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 through 2: Today through Friday) .

A North Pacific low is pushing its front into Southwest, marking the beginning of a period of precipitation and warmer temperatures. As the front tracks north, several inches of snow are expected across Southwest Alaska. Falling snow in combination with northeast winds will lead to the potential for blowing snow and reduced visibilities. As such, a Winter Weather Advisory remains in effect for areas north and west of Dillingham. Elsewhere in Bristol Bay, there is the potential for a wintry mix. The precipitation type forecast remains challenging with the question of how far inland warm air tracks and how long colder air at the surface holds out. For now, the expectation is that snow will quickly transition to rain south of King Salmon. However, as the front stalls over Dillingham and King Salmon, there could be a potential for a mix of snow and freezing rain in those areas. The current thinking is that precipitation will be mostly snow, with little to no ice accumulation expected.

Another North Pacific low and its front enters the Southwest Friday morning, allowing warmer air to surge further north. Areas near Iliamna could see a brief period of snow mixed with freezing rain before warming of the column switches precipitation over to all rain. From there, precipitation will gradually transition to rain from south to north. Stay tuned as we continue to refine the forecast.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 2: Today through Friday) .

A rather static weather pattern will continue this week as a pair of North Pacific lows and their associated fronts cross north of the Aleutians and into the Bering Sea. The first low south of the eastern Aleutians today pushes a front across the eastern Aleutians and AKPEN, bringing snow at first, transitioning to rain today on warm, southerly flow. Easterly gales through the eastern Aleutians and AKPEN today shift to northerly and diminish by Friday evening as the dual lows cross the Aleutian Chain. For the central and western Aleutians, a cold, Arctic airmass streaming across the warmer waters of the Bering produces persistent scattered snow showers on northerly flow through the weekend.

while rain will be predominant in the Eastern Aleutians.

MARINE (Days 3 through 5 - Saturday through Monday).

Gulf of Alaska . A front along the North Gulf Coast dissipates Sunday. A new front moves to the Northern Gulf by Monday. Forecast confidence is mixed with the timing and strength of the second front. Gusty winds over the Gulf diminish late Saturday. Seas to 17 feet subsiding. Gusty winds ahead of the second front increase to widespread gales across the Western Gulf and Alaska Peninsula Sunday and Monday. Seas building to 20 feet over the Western Gulf for Monday.

Aleutians / Bering . A well developed Central Bering low moves through the Bering Strait by late Sunday. Weak low pressure forms over the Western Bering Sunday. Gusty winds over the Central Bering, diminish Sunday. Seas to 12 feet, subsiding. A North Pacific low moves across the Eastern Aleutians Sunday, and into Bristol Bay by Monday. Widespread gales over the Alaska Peninsula and Bristol Bay for Sunday, diminishing Monday. Seas to 20 feet on the Pacific side of the Alaska Peninsula Sunday and Monday, subsiding.

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Sunday through Wednesday) .

Model agreement is decent at best, but there are still quite a few discrepancies in the long term. Guidance stays relatively consistent for upper level ridging across the eastern Gulf, extending northwards into the Mainland and tracking eastward towards Canada. Longwave troughing dips down over the Aleutians, a surface low developing at the base of the trough. This may create a wet pattern across Southwest Alaska as well as along the eastern Kenai and Kodiak Island as we enter early next week. It is still too early to determine precipitation type at this point, and will rely fairly heavily on how much warm air is able to make its way over land. As it stands now, guidance is pointing towards strong southerly flow for Southcentral, which may allow temperatures to remain above freezing through early next week. The back side of the trough will likely see a decrease in temperatures as flow transitions to northerly, namely along the Bering Sea and Western and Central Aleutians.

AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. PUBLIC . Winter Storm Watch 141. Winter Weather Advisory 161. MARINE . Gale Warning 119 120 130-132 138 139 150 155 165 170-177 179 351 352 411-414. Heavy Freezing Spray Warning 179 185 412 414.



SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION . CQ SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA . EZ SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS . KC MARINE/LONG TERM . KZ/KM


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
KDAA2 - 9457292- Kodiak Island, AK 21 mi64 min ENE 1.9G7 34°F 34°F998.6 hPa
46077 - Shelikof Strait, AK 76 mi68 min NE 27G31 37°F 40°F4 ft994.4 hPa (-4.3)35°F
AMAA2 - East Amatuli Light, AK 77 mi58 min E 21G25 38°F 999.7 hPa (-2.2)36°F

Wind History for Kodiak Island, AK
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Last 24 hrNW10
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Kodiak, Kodiak Airport, AK20 mi2.1 hrsE 105.00 miLight Snow Fog/Mist36°F33°F89%999.1 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for PADQ

Wind History from ADQ (wind in knots)
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Last 24 hrNW10NW10
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--04N30W5W5W6W4W6NW6W6--W5W4W3W30E10E16
1 day agoNE11--NE10NE10NE11E8NE11NE10NE11N11NE12NE11NE13--N8N12N7
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2 days ago--00SW3W5W3W30000000------0S30--NE7--E11

Tide / Current Tables for Fox Bay, Whale Island, Alaska
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Fox Bay
Click for Map
Thu -- 04:09 AM AKST     8.70 feet High Tide
Thu -- 09:36 AM AKST     Sunrise
Thu -- 09:41 AM AKST     2.91 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 11:19 AM AKST     Moonset
Thu -- 03:27 PM AKST     10.56 feet High Tide
Thu -- 05:08 PM AKST     Sunset
Thu -- 08:28 PM AKST     Moonrise
Thu -- 10:23 PM AKST     -0.50 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Fox Bay, Whale Island, Alaska, Tide feet
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1.8
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4.1
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6.3
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8
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8.7
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8.4
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7.3
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5.8
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11
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0.6
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-0.4
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-0.3


Tide / Current Tables for Kizhuyak Point, Alaska
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Kizhuyak Point
Click for Map
Thu -- 03:52 AM AKST     8.10 feet High Tide
Thu -- 09:13 AM AKST     2.81 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 09:35 AM AKST     Sunrise
Thu -- 11:18 AM AKST     Moonset
Thu -- 03:10 PM AKST     9.96 feet High Tide
Thu -- 05:08 PM AKST     Sunset
Thu -- 08:28 PM AKST     Moonrise
Thu -- 09:55 PM AKST     -0.60 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Kizhuyak Point, Alaska, Tide feet
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2.4
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0


Weather Map
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NOTE: This section has been updated as of 1/26/2021. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may use the EDIT function to update your location.
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