Monday, October18, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Excursion Inlet, AK

Version 3.4
NOTICE
3/30/2021 -- ANZ330 has been split into ANZ331 and ANZ332. Click EDIT in Marine Forecast and select your new zone.
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 7:39AMSunset 5:45PM Monday October 18, 2021 12:01 PM AKDT (20:01 UTC) Moonrise 5:50PMMoonset 4:59AM Illumination 95% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 13 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PKZ013 Southern Lynn Canal- 651 Am Akdt Mon Oct 18 2021 Updated
.small craft advisory through this afternoon...
Rest of today..N wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
Tonight..N wind 15 kt, except 20 kt near funter bay. Seas 4 ft.
Tue..N wind 15 kt, except 20 kt near funter bay. Seas 4 ft.
Tue night..N wind 15 kt increasing to 20 kt late. Seas 4 ft.
Wed..N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
Thu..N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
Fri..N wind 15 kt becoming se. Seas 3 ft.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Excursion Inlet, AK
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location: 58.42, -134.88     debug


Area Discussion for -
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FXAK67 PAJK 181402 AFDAJK

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Juneau AK 602 AM AKDT Mon Oct 18 2021

SHORT TERM. After an absolutely pleasant weekend for the bulk of the citizens of SEAK, we will be returning to the cloudy conditions that are more typical. A ridge of high pressure is currently in place over the region and is blocking the eastward advance of a very deep low pressure system in the Gulf. While some cloud cover will be able to advect overhead, precip will be limited to coastal areas Monday, and even then PoPs are limited to the 20s until Monday night. More significant to Monday will be that the winds will be picking up along coastal areas, mainly Baranof and POW Islands, as a result of a very strong pressure gradient around the low. Expected wind gusts in locations such as Sitka and Hydaburg could be in excess of 40 mph.

Monday night into Tuesday, the ridge holds strong so the low begins to move a bit north. This should allow for chances for precip to extend a bit further into the inner channels but really should not impact areas further east such as Juneau and Ketchikan. Up to the point of the northward turn, rainfall totals will have been rather unimpressive, however this movement will direct the moisture plume directly at Yakutat. While not a great amount by southeast Alaska standards, rainfall totals around an inch appear to be plausible from early Tuesday morning through Tuesday night. The main push of the front eastward really won't be until after the conclusion of this forecast period, however could potentially see the beginnings of it happening late Tuesday night as another low begins moving into the Gulf from the South. The benefit of this ridge stalling the front out is that it will provide time for the parent low to weaken, reducing the speed of the winds before it can push further inland.

Because of the increasing cloud cover, temperatures should be moderated and there should be a slight warming trend. This will be particularly noticeable at night as below freezing temperatures are not anticipated at sea level locations as has been routine the past couple of evenings.

LONG TERM. /Wednesday through Sunday/ . A fresh round of energy from the southern Bering Sea splashing east across the Aleutian Chain into the western Gulf of Alaska should provide sufficient momentum to push rainfall from the stalled eastern gulf front into the Panhandle Wednesday. With a strong front stuck in the eastern gulf for days, the southeasterlies ahead of the system will have long ago driven out any signs of an early season polar air mass as 850 temperatures largely rise above 0 C. Thus, this precipitation will fall as rain across Panhandle sea level communities. An extended breezy period should persist into most of Wednesday, but as the front pushes in, strength falls markedly, and thus by Wednesday night winds ease briefly.

With a complex upper low positioned in the Gulf for the foreseeable future and periodic intrusions of storm inducing colder air from the Bering and moisture-amping typhoon-fed north Pacific storms, the pattern becomes ripe for the possibility of a series of storms riding northward into the southeast gulf. How strong winds will be, how many storms will arrive, where and when exactly will they impact are all subject to debate. While this pattern possesses impactful wind potential, models sadly and notoriously struggle with specifics for various reasons. Ensembles tend to agree of the threat of wind from Baranof to the southern Inner Channels including Prince of Wales, especially the ECMWF Extreme Forecast Index during this time period, mainly Thursday through the weekend. We elected to alert partners/public days ahead with a Special Weather Statement for wind impacting transportation and causing power outages. Currently we barely mention gales for the southeast gulf, but this can be ramped up later as confidence increases. The operational GFS pushes 50 plus knots of winds at various points late this week. We also acknowledged the outside chance that one such system (suggested by the NAM) could develop on Wednesday. But the most likely time will be Thursday into Sunday. However, the period could last into early next week.

While not the main focus, the pattern also tends to favor the highest probability and amounts of rain along the coast and in the south with much lighter amounts and lower chances in the north. With the focus of lower pressure deep in the central and southeastern gulf, winds will largely stay northerly. However, given warmer temperatures in western Canada, we do not expect typically strong outflow in response to the storms from the south.

AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. PUBLIC . Strong Wind from this afternoon through late tonight for AKZ027. Strong Wind from 1 PM AKDT this afternoon through late tonight for AKZ023. MARINE . Gale Warning for PKZ022-041>043-051-052-310. Small Craft Advisory for PKZ021-033-035-036-053.



JDR/JWA

Visit us at http://www.weather.gov/Juneau


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
PRTA2 - Point Retreat, AK 4 mi52 min NNE 13G16 40°F 1009.5 hPa32°F
PTLA2 8 mi30 min N 9.9G13 41°F 1008 hPa34°F
LIXA2 12 mi30 min N 12G17 40°F 1007.6 hPa34°F
NKXA2 12 mi30 min ENE 17G23 43°F 1007 hPa29°F
MVXA2 15 mi30 min E 2.9G5.1 37°F 1007 hPa30°F
RIXA2 19 mi30 min ENE 26G32 41°F 1006 hPa34°F
SCXA2 19 mi30 min N 9.9G14 1007.1 hPa
MXXA2 25 mi30 min ESE 4.1G6 42°F 1006.8 hPa25°F
SISA2 - Sisters Island, AK 26 mi40 min ENE 19G23 45°F
JNEA2 - 9452210 - Juneau, AK 26 mi44 min E 1.9G2.9 40°F 46°F1009.7 hPa
JLXA2 27 mi29 min ESE 1G2.9 43°F 1006.2 hPa29°F
JNGA2 27 mi29 min SSE 1.9G2.9 42°F 1009.1 hPa33°F
JMLA2 28 mi30 min ESE 1.9G4.1 42°F 1006.5 hPa28°F
SDIA2 - South Douglas, AK 28 mi34 min 0G1 42°F 1009.1 hPa35°F
MRNA2 36 mi30 min 0G1 44°F 1007 hPa35°F
PAXA2 41 mi29 min NE 17G26 39°F 1007.5 hPa29°F
EROA2 - Eldred Rock, AK 42 mi38 min NNE 9.9G13 40°F 1010.8 hPa28°F
PBPA2 - Point Bishop, AK 42 mi52 min NNE 13G21 40°F 1009.1 hPa28°F
ERXA2 42 mi30 min N 9.9G12 40°F 1006.8 hPa30°F
GUXA2 45 mi30 min NNW 1G2.9 39°F 1005.9 hPa33°F
TKEA2 - Tenakee Springs, AK 48 mi30 min E 12G21 47°F 1006 hPa27°F

Wind History for Juneau, AK
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Juneau, Juneau International Airport, AK16 mi69 minNW 510.00 miOvercast36°F31°F82%1009.7 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for PAJN

Wind History from AJN (wind in knots)
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Tide / Current Tables for Barlow Cove, Mansfield Peninsula, Lynn Canal, Alaska
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Barlow Cove
Click for Map
Mon -- 12:07 AM AKDT     15.14 feet High Tide
Mon -- 04:59 AM AKDT     Moonset
Mon -- 06:19 AM AKDT     -0.03 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 07:43 AM AKDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 12:34 PM AKDT     16.34 feet High Tide
Mon -- 05:44 PM AKDT     Sunset
Mon -- 05:49 PM AKDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 06:44 PM AKDT     0.13 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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Tide / Current Tables for Lincoln Island, Lynn Canal, Alaska
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Lincoln Island
Click for Map
Mon -- 12:17 AM AKDT     15.92 feet High Tide
Mon -- 04:59 AM AKDT     Moonset
Mon -- 06:26 AM AKDT     0.27 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 07:44 AM AKDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 12:44 PM AKDT     17.09 feet High Tide
Mon -- 05:44 PM AKDT     Sunset
Mon -- 05:50 PM AKDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 06:51 PM AKDT     0.43 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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Weather Map
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NOTE: This section has been updated as of 1/26/2021. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may use the EDIT function to update your location.
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