Monday, October18, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Twin Hills, AK

Version 3.4
NOTICE
3/30/2021 -- ANZ330 has been split into ANZ331 and ANZ332. Click EDIT in Marine Forecast and select your new zone.
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 8:49AMSunset 6:39PM Monday October 18, 2021 12:59 PM AKDT (20:59 UTC) Moonrise 5:31PMMoonset 4:45AM Illumination 95% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 13 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PKZ160 Bristol Bay- 318 Am Akdt Mon Oct 18 2021
.small craft advisory today...
Today..N wind 25 kt diminishing to 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas 7 ft.
Tonight..Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming S 15 kt after midnight. Seas 3 ft.
Tue..S wind 20 kt becoming W 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas 5 ft.
Tue night..W wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
Wed..W wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
Thu..SE wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
Fri..NE wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Twin Hills, AK
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location: 58.7, -160     debug


Area Discussion for -
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FXAK68 PAFC 181257 AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Anchorage AK 457 AM AKDT Mon Oct 18 2021

ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS.

A broad mid to upper trough wrapped to a diffused upper low near Kodiak brings steady light to moderate rain over Kodiak Island and the northern Gulf, including Western Prince William Sound. A barrier jet meandering over the northern Gulf has generated strong easterly winds with high end gales near Middleton Island and mainly south of Cordova and Valdez overnight. Meanwhile, a vast upper ridge runs across the Bering to Southwest Alaska then turns east through Southcentral to beyond Wrangell Mountains. Multiple shortwaves over the Alaska Peninsula and across the Gulf enhances the potential for increased rain, clouds and gusty winds in those areas this morning.

MODEL DISCUSSION.

Models handle the synoptic systems over the Bering Sea much better than the revolving and emerging lows over the Gulf and Southcentral days ahead. Two separate lows over the Bering will bring active weather across the Aleutians and Southwest Coast, and models are really straight forward until Thursday afternoon when the solutions begin to diverge. ECMWF takes the Northwest Pacific low slightly closer to the north of the eastern Aleutians while GFS positions its low right over Pribilof Islands which is about 150 nm difference in position. At the Gulf, developing lows from the North Pacific are absorbed toward a robust frontal system in the eastern Gulf leading up to a 270 nm variation in the placement of the lows among NAM, GFS and ECMWF by Wednesday night. Clearly, lows associated with the front could be a bit difficult to follow as some could either stay on track or detour from the northern Gulf in the coming days. For this reason, the forecast confidence is low beyond Wednesday.

AVIATION.

PANC . VFR conditions will persist, with gentle northerly winds continuing through today and Tue morning.

SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2).

The main weather feature in the area today is the very strong front in the Gulf that is wrapped around an elongated low with a center near Kodiak and another about 300 miles due east of the first low. There will be multiple lows that develop and roll along the front the next few days as the front will remain rather stationary from the eastern Gulf to near Prince William Sound.

Kodiak remains under the strong easterly winds and persistent rainfall. Winds should start to slowly diminish this afternoon, but it will remain windy through tonight around the Kodiak area. This pattern is also pushing rain toward the north Gulf coast, but the way the front is bent around the lows, it is not pushing inland. Therefore the rain will be a bit muted even along the north Gulf coast today until one of those lows along the front that was mentioned earlier is able to push inland a little bit. This looks to be most likely to happen Tuesday night as an upper level wave moves northward through the Gulf and into Southcentral. This is moving in response to the main upper level trough digging southeastward across the eastern Bering Sea at that time.

The biggest uncertainty is where this low will move. Models are basically moving it across the Kenai Peninsula from southeast to northwest. However, whether it track over Seward and across the northern part of the Peninsula or crosses just the southern tip of the Peninsula will have a bit of impacts as to where there will be the most precipitation and how the wind field behaves. At this point, going with the more northerly solution, but this will need to be watched closely until it happens, or at least tips it's hand as to which route it will take.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 and 2: Today through Tuesday) .

A transient ridge moves over the Southwest Monday, bringing clearer skies to start the workweek. Temperatures this morning will start in the 20s before climbing into the 30s throughout the day.

Unsettled weather returns as a low moves across the Bering Sea, pushing its front into Southwest Alaska tonight. Snow will fall initially, then daytime heating and continued warm air advection will transition the precipitation into a rain/snow mix or rain through Tuesday afternoon. Further south, at locations like Dillingham and King Salmon, warm air aloft will keep precipitation as rain even as temperatures Tuesday morning hover near freezing. As temperatures decrease into the evening, precipitation may transition back into a mix or snow before slowly tapering off. Overall, precipitation is expected to be light with minimal snow accumulations.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 and 2: Today through Tuesday) .

A ridge continues to move across the Aleutian Chain, bringing light winds and drier conditions. Over the Eastern Aleutians and AKPEN, lingering rain and gusty gap winds will diminish through Monday morning as the ridge moves overhead.

Behind the ridge, wind and precipitation chances increase as fronts track across the Aleutians from a low in the northern Bering Sea. A warm front moves across the Western Aleutians beginning Monday morning, bringing gale force winds and light rain. Rain remains likely with this front as it tracks across the Central and Eastern Aleutians, though wind speeds diminish as the front weakens. A cold front follows on the heels of the warm front, bringing a chance for showers across much of the Aleutians from Monday evening through Tuesday evening. Snow or rain/snow showers are possible over the Pribilofs on Tuesday with the cold front. However, rain showers are expected for the remainder of the Aleutians as heat from the warmer ocean waters modifies the air mass.

MARINE (Days 3 through 5/Wednesday through Friday).

Bering/Aleutians

Forecast confidence remains above average on Wednesday as guidance shows similar solutions with the placement and intensity of synoptic scale features. However, forecast confidence significantly decreases on Thursday as the next low pressure system enters the western Bering/Aleutians as guidance shows significant differences with respect to the placement and intensity of this low. One common theme is gale force winds are likely in the southern Bering Sea and along the Aleutian Chain Thursday and Friday.

Gulf of Alaska

Forecast confidence remains above average for Wednesday as guidance shows similar solutions with respect to the placement and intensity of synoptic scale features. Gale force winds across the northern Gulf will ease on Wednesday with the weakening of a barrier jet. Confidence is high that winds will remain below gale force on Thursday as a transient ridge of high pressure moves across the Gulf. Confidence decreases during the forecast period on Friday as the next low moves into the vicinity.

LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7/Thursday through Sunday).

A cloudy, cool and wet pattern is expected for Southcentral during the extended period. A positively tilted upper trough will extend from the northern Bering Sea through the central Gulf of Alaska. This pattern will allow for moisture to advect from the Gulf into Southcentral as the trough-axis will remain southwest of the Kenai Peninsula and thus result in southeasterly onshore flow. Lower confidence exists with respect to precipitation type. Snow chances increase as elevation increases.

Southwest will also remain cloudy and cool during the extended period. Showers and intermittent precipitation is likely, though steady precipitation is less likely due to the southeasterly flow downsloping on the Alaska Range.

The Bering/Aleutians will remain in a cloudy and cool pattern as broad upper troughing will continue to extend across the area. We are monitoring the potential for a large low pressure system moving from the North Pacific into the Bering Sea on Thursday/Friday. Forecast confidence remains low with respect to the placement and intensity of the low center. However, there are more similarities between the GFS/GEFS and the ECMWF/EPS with respect to the placement and intensity of this low, meaning for now a GFS/ECMWF ensemble blend is the preferred solution.

AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. PUBLIC . NONE. MARINE . Gale Warning: 119, 120, 130-132, 136, 138, 150, 155, 173-178, 185, 351, 411-413. FIRE WEATHER . NONE.



SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION . CB SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA . EZ SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS . KC/CJ MARINE/LONG TERM . ED


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Togiac Village, Togiak Airport, AK33 mi64 minN 910.00 miFair36°F28°F73%1014.4 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for PATG

Wind History from ATG (wind in knots)
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Last 24hr--------------------------------------NW3NW11--NW7N9
1 day ago------------------------------------------------
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NW12NW13NW110W6NW9W4W4W7W4NW4N5N4N5------------

Tide / Current Tables for Black Rock, Walrus Islands, Nushagak Bay, Alaska
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Black Rock
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Mon -- 02:11 AM AKDT     8.39 feet High Tide
Mon -- 06:46 AM AKDT     Moonset
Mon -- 08:17 AM AKDT     1.56 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 09:25 AM AKDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 02:40 PM AKDT     7.35 feet High Tide
Mon -- 07:24 PM AKDT     Sunset
Mon -- 07:31 PM AKDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 08:31 PM AKDT     1.91 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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Tide / Current Tables for Hagemeister Island (north end), Alaska
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Hagemeister Island (north end)
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Mon -- 02:35 AM AKDT     8.72 feet High Tide
Mon -- 06:48 AM AKDT     Moonset
Mon -- 09:28 AM AKDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 09:34 AM AKDT     1.78 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 03:15 PM AKDT     6.87 feet High Tide
Mon -- 07:26 PM AKDT     Sunset
Mon -- 07:33 PM AKDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 09:36 PM AKDT     2.48 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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GEOS Local Image of Alaska    EDIT
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