Thursday, October28, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Togiak, AK

Version 3.4
NOTICE
3/30/2021 -- ANZ330 has been split into ANZ331 and ANZ332. Click EDIT in Marine Forecast and select your new zone.
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 9:16AMSunset 6:10PM Thursday October 28, 2021 12:28 PM AKDT (20:28 UTC) Moonrise 10:28PMMoonset 3:53PM Illumination 46% Phase: Third Quarter Moon; Moon at 23 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PKZ160 Bristol Bay- 457 Am Akdt Thu Oct 28 2021
.gale warning Friday...
Today..Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft.
Tonight..E wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
Fri..NE wind 35 kt. Seas 8 ft.
Fri night..N wind 40 kt. Seas 9 ft.
Sat..NE wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.
Sun..N wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
Mon..NW wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Togiak, AK
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location: 58.7, -160.18     debug


Area Discussion for -
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FXAK69 PAFG 281250 AFDAFG

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fairbanks AK 450 AM AKDT Thu Oct 28 2021

SYNOPSIS. Quiet weather across northern Alaska this morning, with most locations having cloudy skies. Light snow mixed in with fog continuing across the northern Arctic Coast as the weather front lifts offshore today. Occasional foggy conditions in the Interior through this morning, while snow showers persist across the West Coast. A persistent surface low off the northwest Arctic Coast is bringing elevated surf from Point Hope to Shishmaref through today.

The forecast becomes more challenging going into the weekend as a strong surface low pressure moves into the Gulf of Alaska on Friday night. This feature will result in strong southerly flow developing across the Interior, particularly for the Alaska and Brooks Ranges Saturday morning. Additionally, heavy snow is expected to develop across the Central and Western Interior starting Saturday and lasting into early next week.

DISCUSSION. The upper level pattern consists of a longwave trough stretching from the Chukchi Sea south to Bristol Bay and into the northern Pacific Ocean. This is creating southerly flow across the eastern portion of the state this morning. The southern portion of the longwave trough will move eastward into the Gulf of Alaska where it will rotate northward tonight and send a shortwave north of the Alaska Range by Friday afternoon. Behind that shortwave, strong ridging will build across British Columbia and into the Yukon where strong southerly flow will develop. Another strong closed upper level low will move north into the Gulf of Alaska, reinforcing this southerly flow pattern on Saturday and lasting through the rest of the weekend. At this point, models diverge on the details but the long wave trough out west in the Bering Sea will be around 500 dm while the strong ridge centered over British Columbia will be around 565 dm on Sunday morning.

At the surface, a 100 mb low continues to persist just west of Point Hope this morning. This low will weaken, but most models struggle on where this feature will move; however, most solutions show movement to the north which will result in the high surf issues from Point Hope to Shishmaref to end. Otherwise, general low pressure will remain out west, resulting in unsettled weather with snow showers through the Bering Strait south.

The feature of interest for the short term will be a strong surface low tracking from the northern Pacific into the Gulf of Alaska beginning on Friday night. This low will continue to move north, with a weather front bringing snow in the Western Interior beginning late Friday and early Saturday. This front will spread snow northward to the central Brooks Range by Saturday afternoon. This front will then move to the west before models diverge on how long the front will bring snow to the Western Interior and West Coast going into Sunday. Regardless of the uncertainties in these details, this will be a significant winter storm for the Western Interior and portions of the West Coast this weekend.

Eastern and Central Interior . The main impactful weather in the Interior going into and through the weekend will be winds in the Alaska Range. Weak southerly flow will develop through Alaska Range passes this morning and continue into tomorrow. At that point, a strong surface low moving into the Gulf of Alaska combined with strong southerly flow in the upper levels will support a rapid increase in south winds through the passes beginning tomorrow night and lasting into Saturday night. Therefore, High Wind Watches remain in effect for southerly winds gusting to 70 mph in the Alaska Range as well as southeast winds gusting to 60 mph through Delta Junction south. East to southeast winds will also increase across the Interior on Saturday as well, with gusts to 35 mph in higher terrain. Areas from Tanana east will remain precipitation free due to the strong chinook pattern through the weekend. This strong southerly flow will result in an increasing temperature trend, with areas in the Tanana Valley reaching into the 40s by Saturday.

North Slope and Brooks Range . Light snow and fog continue across the Arctic Coast this morning. The weather front associated with this snow will continue to lift to the north offshore today, with snow tapering off this afternoon. Easterly flow will turn southerly tonight. Skies are expected to clear for areas across the North Slope beginning tonight, resulting in a cooling trend going into the weekend. At that point, temperatures will be on a warming trend again as the southerly flow strengthens across the Brooks Range. Winds in the Brooks Range are expected to increase out of the south as well during this time, with the south winds reaching the 40 to 50 mph range through Atigun Pass on Saturday.

West Coast and Western Interior . Periodic snow showers continuing for areas through the Bering Strait and St. Lawrence Island this morning. These conditions expected to persist through today as a surface low continues to sit in the same general area off the northwest Arctic Coast. This feature is also the cause for potential elevated surf of 1 to 2 feet from Point Hope to Shishmaref through today. The focus will then shift to a snow storm that will develop across the Western Interior beginning late Friday night. A weather front will push northward into the lower Yukon and Kuskokwim Valleys late Friday night, and then to the Upper Kobuk and Noatak Valleys by Saturday morning. This front will then persist over the general area through Saturday before drifting to the west along the Nulato Hills and into the far eastern portions of Norton and Kotzebue Sound by Sunday morning. Generally 5 to 10 inches are expected for the areas mentioned in the Western Interior from Saturday morning to Sunday morning. Winter Storm Watches are in effect due to these snow amounts starting on Friday night and lasting into Sunday morning. There remains a decent amount of model uncertainty regarding the intensity and location of the weather front going into Sunday, so will have to keep a monitor on how model guidance handles the later stage evolution of this event. Temperatures will warm slightly going into the weekend for the Western Interior, while areas along the coasts will remain in the low to mid-20s.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4 . A strong surface low developing in the Kotzebue Sound to northwest Arctic Coast region will increase potential for elevated surf from Shishmaref to Point Hope beginning Sunday afternoon and lasting into Monday morning. However, model discrepancies on surface low placement and associated wind field is keeping confidence in the low to moderate range at this time.

AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. High Wind Watch for AKZ223-AKZ225-AKZ226.

Winter Storm Watch for AKZ215-AKZ216-AKZ217.

Small Craft Advisory for PKZ220-PKZ225.



OCT 21


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure

Link to 5 minute data for PATG

Wind History from ATG (wind in knots)
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Tide / Current Tables for Black Rock, Walrus Islands, Nushagak Bay, Alaska
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Black Rock
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Thu -- 04:01 AM AKDT     4.58 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 09:17 AM AKDT     5.51 feet High Tide
Thu -- 09:49 AM AKDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 12:06 PM AKDT     Last Quarter
Thu -- 03:26 PM AKDT     1.55 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 05:53 PM AKDT     Moonset
Thu -- 06:58 PM AKDT     Sunset
Thu -- 10:26 PM AKDT     8.28 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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Tide / Current Tables for Hagemeister Island (north end), Alaska
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Hagemeister Island (north end)
Click for Map
Thu -- 06:43 AM AKDT     3.49 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 08:56 AM AKDT     3.84 feet High Tide
Thu -- 09:52 AM AKDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 12:06 PM AKDT     Last Quarter
Thu -- 02:40 PM AKDT     1.31 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 05:56 PM AKDT     Moonset
Thu -- 07:00 PM AKDT     Sunset
Thu -- 11:14 PM AKDT     9.61 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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NOTE: This section has been updated as of 1/26/2021. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may use the EDIT function to update your location.
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