Wednesday, January19, 2022
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Marine Weather and Tides
Covenant Life, AK

Version 3.4
NOTICE
3/30/2021 -- ANZ330 has been split into ANZ331 and ANZ332. Click EDIT in Marine Forecast and select your new zone.
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 8:25AMSunset 3:51PM Tuesday January 18, 2022 11:59 PM AKST (08:59 UTC) Moonrise 4:24PMMoonset 9:55AM Illumination 97% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 17 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PKZ011 Glacier Bay- 1030 Pm Akst Tue Jan 18 2022 Updated
Rest of tonight..N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
Wed..N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft in the morning then 2 ft or less. Snow. Rain in the afternoon.
Wed night..NW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain and snow.
Thu..SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain.
Thu night..SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain and snow.
Fri..SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
Sat..SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
Sun..SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Covenant Life, AK
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location: 58.88, -136.57     debug


Area Discussion for -
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FXAK67 PAJK 182352 AFDAJK

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Juneau AK 252 PM AKST Tue Jan 18 2022

SHORT TERM. /Through Wed night/ Our dry weather is coming to an end as a new front comes in from the SW tonight into Wednesday. Accompanying it is another warm up, so we will have the classic snow changing to rain for many areas on Wednesday.

The main forecast changes were focused on precip amounts and wind as this system comes inland. Heaviest precip rates are now focused on the 21z Wed to 3z Thu time frame with ptype potentially switching from snow to rain for many areas at that time. Snow amounts will mainly be determined by when this change over occurs (temps warming up quickly will result in less snow, while a slow warm up could lead to higher snow totals). At the current time most areas of the panhandle S of Icy Strait will change over to rain rather quickly with only a few inches of snow accumulation expected. Gustavus, Juneau, and Haines will likely hang on long enough for around 3 to 6 inches before either change over occurs or the heavier precip rates moves out of the area. As such we decided to change the winter storm watch for Haines, Gustavus, and Juneau to winter weather advisories, while the watch for Hoonah has been dropped completely. Uncertainty lingers as snow amounts could range as low as only 1 inch or as high as 10 inches on the extreme high side depending on warmup timing and how much qpf gets into certain areas. Onshore flow into late Wed night will keep lighter precip going through the rest of Wed night.

As for winds, the southern panhandle is under the gun for strong wind gusts on Wed. Inner channel winds were increased for many areas with the highest winds expected Wed midday to evening. Gusts are likely only going to reach around 40 to 50 mph while marine areas will see gale force winds. Winds subside into Wed night as the system moves into Canada. Meanwhile in the gulf, gale force winds are still expected late Tue night into Wed.

LONG TERM. /Thursday through Sunday Night/ . Warming temperatures, rising snow levels, and heavy rain are the words of the day for the mid range forecast. Getting better consensus on the upcoming event, however still enough differences that pinning down details is not feasible quite yet.

Pattern shifts Thursday with mid level ridge building over the AK Panhandle and feeding in warm SW flow. This pattern will likely remain in place through next week. At the surface remnants of the Wednesday front crosses over the region and into British Columbia while weakening. This will be a transition day and a chance to clean up after the first system. For Friday a gale force occluded front tracks into the AK Gulf from the SE with the parent low moving in S of the Aleutians. This is setting up an atmospheric river for Friday into Saturday. IVT values in excess of 800 kg/m/s are indicative of the substantial amount of moisture. Right now best estimate is heaviest precip will hit the NE Gulf Coast and northern Panhandle then shift southward through Sunday while weakening and diminishing.

Temperatures across the board warm into the 40s, and even at higher elevations getting into the mid to upper 30s. Snow levels of over 6k ft hit the southern region and into the 2K to 4K for the central and northern locations. That said expect majority of precip to change over to all rain and even a mix at White Pass. 850 temperature anomalies upwards of 14 Deg C are indicated by most ensembles.

Rain totals: Highest 12 hour amounts starting Thursday upwards of 2 inches for the NE gulf coast with closer to half an inch to the south. These amounts are still in the 1 to 2 year recurrent intervals. Total QPF amounts from Thursday into Sunday have similar geographical coverage with 6 to 7 inches over NE gulf coast, 3 to 4 for central areas and 1 to 2 for the south. Once again these values are closer to 1 year recurrence intervals. But with the previous heavy snow pack that remains, even with last weeks warm up, and new snow mid week, increased hydrology issues are likely: ponding on roadways, river rises, nuisance flooding and so forth. Except for the higher elevations no concerns for snow accumulation through the weekend.

Models were falling in line but main difference is how far south the AR slides. Kept with the previous forecast overall with some minor adjustments raising temperatures and lowering snow ratios and snow amounts.

AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. PUBLIC . Strong Wind from Wednesday morning through Wednesday afternoon for AKZ023-027. Winter Weather Advisory from 9 AM to 9 PM AKST Wednesday for AKZ019>020-025. Strong Wind Wednesday afternoon for AKZ028. MARINE . Gale Warning for PKZ036-041>043-051-052-310. Small Craft Advisory for PKZ021-022-031>035-053.



EAL/99

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Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
BLTA2 - Bartlet Cove AK 47 mi33 min E 1.9G4.1 27°F
CSPA2 - Cape Spencer, AK 47 mi49 min E 24G26 33°F 1014.9 hPa
GEXA2 47 mi36 min ENE 17G24 32°F 1013.7 hPa26°F
ELFA2 - 9452634 - Elfin Cove, AK 49 mi59 min 32°F 42°F1017.1 hPa (-0.3)

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure

Link to 5 minute data for PAEL

Wind History from AEL (wind in knots)
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Last 24 hr------------------------------NE7--NE8--NE10--E9--E10
1 day ago------------------------------0--0------0--0
2 days ago------------------------------0----------NW7--5

Tide / Current Tables for Composite Island, Glacier Bay, Alaska
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Composite Island
Click for Map
Wed -- 02:42 AM AKST     15.68 feet High Tide
Wed -- 08:25 AM AKST     3.58 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 08:38 AM AKST     Sunrise
Wed -- 10:09 AM AKST     Moonset
Wed -- 02:16 PM AKST     17.48 feet High Tide
Wed -- 03:55 PM AKST     Sunset
Wed -- 05:49 PM AKST     Moonrise
Wed -- 08:55 PM AKST     -1.71 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Composite Island, Glacier Bay, Alaska, Tide feet
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9.4
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13
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15.2
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15.6
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14.3
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11.6
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8.3
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5.4
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3.7
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3.9
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9.4
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13.1
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16
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17.4
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14.8
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11.1
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6.6
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2.3
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-0.7
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-1.7
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-0.3
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3


Tide / Current Tables for Muir Inlet, Glacier Bay, Alaska
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Muir Inlet
Click for Map
Wed -- 02:43 AM AKST     15.68 feet High Tide
Wed -- 08:27 AM AKST     3.58 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 08:37 AM AKST     Sunrise
Wed -- 10:07 AM AKST     Moonset
Wed -- 02:17 PM AKST     17.48 feet High Tide
Wed -- 03:53 PM AKST     Sunset
Wed -- 05:47 PM AKST     Moonrise
Wed -- 08:57 PM AKST     -1.71 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Muir Inlet, Glacier Bay, Alaska, Tide feet
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9.3
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12.9
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15.2
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14.9
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11.2
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6.7
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2.4
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-0.7
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-1.7
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-0.4
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2.9


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NOTE: This section has been updated as of 1/26/2021. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may use the EDIT function to update your location.
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