Sunrise 4:54 AM   Sunset 10:58 PM Moonrise 5:58 PM   Moonset 2:39 AM

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PKZ130 West Of Barren Islands Including Kamishak Bay- 401 Am Akst Wed Mar 8 2023
.small craft advisory through Thursday - .
Today - W wind 15 kt increasing to 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas 5 ft.Tonight - W wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.Thu - NW wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.Thu night - NW wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft.Fri through Sat - NW wind 35 kt. Seas 10 ft.Sun - NW wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.

PKZ100
No data

FXAK68 PAFC 201318 AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Anchorage AK 518 AM AKDT Mon May 20 2024

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...

A vigorous upper level low currently over the Copper River Basin is producing rain and snow this morning with snow on many webcams in the area. The snow is sticking on grassy surfaces and trees in most locations, however Mentasta Pass webcam is showing slushy accumulations on road surfaces. Partly cloudy to mostly cloudy conditions along with light winds are found over most of Southcentral. The rain and snow in the Copper River Basin will diminish this afternoon.

A weak shortwave moving north and east today over the Western Gulf of Alaska will bring increasing chances for rain over Kodiak Island this afternoon and evening, and over the Kenai Peninsula this evening. A stronger front that is wrapping around a low in the Eastern Bering Sea will push north and east over Southcentral on Tuesday. This front will bring periods of rain and higher elevation snow to Southcentral. Southwesterly flow aloft is expected to allow the Anchorage Bowl to get some rainfall Tuesday afternoon, but a switch in flow to a southeasterly direction on Wednesday will cause downslope drying to occur over the area. A ridge over the Northern Gulf of Alaska and Copper River Basin will help build a pressure gradient over the Chugach and Kenai Mountains as the front approaches from the southwest, which will result in stronger southerly gap winds taking place Tuesday afternoon near the Kamishak Gap, Turnagain and Kink Arms, and the Copper River Basin. This next system will result in a brief cool down over the entire region, but should quickly rebound to closer to normal temperatures later in the week.

-CC

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA, THE BERING SEA AND THE ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3: Today through Wednesday)...

Satellite imagery shows a cloudy start to the work week, with widespread clouds around a Western Bering low and its front, which currently extends across the Pribilof islands and towards the Eastern Aleutians and Alaska Peninsula. Patches of clear sky are visible over Southwest Alaska ahead of this front, though fog and low stratus are slowly spreading over parts of the Bristol Bay coastline early this morning.

The Western Bering low and its front will be the main weather makers through Tuesday, with much of the impacts (though lower- end) centered over Southwest Alaska. The front reaches Southwest Alaska this afternoon/evening, bringing with it light rain and breezy southeasterly winds. A strong upper level shortwave rotating around the low will help reinvigorate the front early Tuesday morning, leading to moderate rain rates before the front exits into Southcentral Alaska Tuesday afternoon and evening.
Rainfall totals from this afternoon through Tuesday afternoon will be around 0.5 to 0.75 inches for Bristol Bay and Lower Kuskokwim Valley, with about 0.25 to 0.5 inches for Kuskokwim Delta and Nunivak island. About 0.1 inches or less are expected for Alaska Peninsula. Overall forecast confidence is relatively high for this front, with only minor uncertainty regarding precipitation timing and maximum gusts expected through Kamishak Gap.

Behind the front, expect an influx of colder air aloft, breezy conditions, and widespread showers as another upper low merges with the Bering Sea low later today. This influx of colder air could bring the potential for snow showers to mix in with rain showers. By Tuesday, a ridge moving in from the west will bring a brief spell of calmer conditions as it moves across the Bering Sea and Aleutians. Behind it, however, a Kamchatka low will begin pushing its front into the Western Bering and Aleutians for Tuesday evening. This incoming storm does look to be a little stronger than our present one, with the potential for localized areas of gale force winds, as well as the potential for moderate to heavy rainfall along the front.

-KC

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7)...

Thursday, an upper-level low centered over the Bering begins to elongate southeastward into the Gulf. Surface precipitation may start as snow then transition to rain for the Western Capes, Kuskokwim Delta, and Nunivak Island. A brief ridge forms before the next upper-level low consolidates and moves eastward from Attu Island. By Friday the new low has transited the Bering and continued across Southwest Alaska into the Gulf by Sunday. The highest rain amounts are expected along the Kenai Peninsula and the northern Gulf coast. High pressure builds behind this low across the Bering Saturday and Sunday.

AVIATION

PANC...VFR conditions are anticipated through the TAF period. A mild Turnagain Arm wind may develop this afternoon with the majority of winds remaining over Cook Inlet and away from the terminal. A better chance for increasing southeasterly winds develops Tuesday morning as an approaching trough and front tighten the pressure gradient over PANC with potential gusts above 15 knots.

-BL

Nordyke Island
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Mon -- 01:12 AM AKDT     13.76 feet High Tide
Mon -- 04:39 AM AKDT     Moonset
Mon -- 05:32 AM AKDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 07:55 AM AKDT     0.85 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 02:00 PM AKDT     12.34 feet High Tide
Mon -- 07:51 PM AKDT     3.49 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 07:57 PM AKDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 10:55 PM AKDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Nordyke Island, Kamishak Bay, Alaska, Tide feet

Iliamna Bay
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Mon -- 01:13 AM AKDT     13.25 feet High Tide
Mon -- 04:36 AM AKDT     Moonset
Mon -- 05:26 AM AKDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 07:49 AM AKDT     0.86 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 02:02 PM AKDT     12.11 feet High Tide
Mon -- 07:45 PM AKDT     3.03 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 07:57 PM AKDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 10:56 PM AKDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Iliamna Bay, Alaska, Tide feet

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