Thursday, October21, 2021
Privacy Policy
L-36.com

Marine Weather and Tides
Seldovia Village, AK

Version 3.4
NOTICE
3/30/2021 -- ANZ330 has been split into ANZ331 and ANZ332. Click EDIT in Marine Forecast and select your new zone.
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 8:57AMSunset 6:30PM Thursday October 21, 2021 12:13 PM AKDT (20:13 UTC) Moonrise 5:10PMMoonset 8:15AM Illumination 99% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 16 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
PKZ141 Kachemak Bay- 401 Am Akdt Thu Oct 21 2021
Today..SW wind 10 kt becoming se in the afternoon. Seas 2 ft.
Tonight..E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
Fri..NE wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
Fri night..NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
Sat..NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
Sun..Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
Mon..N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Seldovia Village, AK
   Hourly   EDIT   Help
location: 59.25, -151.43     debug


Area Discussion for -
      (on/off)   Help   NOTE: mouseover dotted underlined text for definition
FXAK68 PAFC 211313 AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Anchorage AK 513 AM AKDT Thu Oct 21 2021

ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS.

An enormous upper trough axis runs northwestward from the deep North Pacific through Southwest, then curves to an upper low south of the Gulf of Anadyr. An intensifying storm low over the Bering is generating storm-force winds along the west and east flank of the low, creating widespread showers across the Bering and Aleutian Chain. A high pressure aloft over Southcentral is streaming mid to upper clouds directly northward. Meanwhile, a weakening surface low over western Prince William Sound brings steady light to moderate rain and increased moisture across Southcentral this morning.

MODEL DISCUSSION.

Computer models are becoming more in sync with the progress and placement of the Bering low today through Friday. The potential threat for hurricane force winds over the southern Bering and central Aleutians starting this afternoon into Friday morning remains high among the solutions. A parade of lows from the North Pacific will usher a lot of weather across the Gulf and Southcentral starting tonight into the end of the week. Yet, the future placement and motion of these expected systems remain a bit challenging for the long term. For this reason, the forecast confidence is low after Friday night.

AVIATION.

PANC . Lower ceilings and light rain are expected to continue, causing MVFR conditions to stick around until dry downsloping becomes more pronounced over Anchorage Bowl this evening. Southeasterly Turnagain arm gusts in the early afternoon hours could briefly reach the terminal for a few hours. The potential for improving weather this evening will yield to VFR conditions tonight into early Friday morning.

SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2).

A low in Prince William Sound is moving northwestward and rapidly weakening this morning. This low is very similar to the one from two days ago with the main difference being this one is moving onshore a little farther northeast. AS did the last low, while it has been bringing in strong winds into the Gulf, it will mostly dissipate at the surface as it crosses the Kenai and Chugach mountains just leaving a lee side trough at the surface. There is a good amount of moisture with this low and enough lifting to bring in moderate rain to the northern Kenai Peninsula and Anchorage to the Matanuska Valley. Higher elevations are getting some snow, but temperatures have been slow to drop overnight with the warm air moving in with this low. Even so, the biggest forecast challenge for today is deciphering where and when rain may turn to snow. At this point it looks like this will be mainly a rain event for lower elevations around the northern Cook Inlet region and even into the Susitna Valley as Talkeetna and Skwentna have been reporting P-type as rain through the night.

The 500 mb trough is currently over Kodiak Island this morning and will move northward through the day. This trough is weakening some it probably will not be a precipitation maker, but keep it from significantly clearing out after the low moves through.

The next system will be a shortwave ridding the southeast flow off the Gulf and reaching Southeast Prince William Sound late tonight. There is still mostly warm air associated with this wave as well as another shortwave not far behind it. These shortwaves are associated with a very complex system in the low in which a low complex in the eastern Gulf interacts with a very strong low cutting just southwest of the Gulf on Friday night into Saturday. This is creating a mess of a complex low in the Gulf that is giving both numerical models and meteorologists alike fits trying to figure out.

SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 and 2).

Broad longwave trough pattern exists over Southwest Alaska today extending from the Bering Strait, across Southwest and into the North Pacific. This negatively tilted trough quickly gets shoved off to the northeast by a transient ridge before the next front off a strong Bering low reaches the coast tonight. Winds along the coast will rapidly increase throughout the day today and persist though the overnight hours. Temperatures are expected to remain relatively steady over the next couple days, with daytime temperatures in the mid-to-upper 30's and overnight temperatures dipping into the low 20's for most areas. Bristol Bay will be overall a few degrees warmer than the rest of the Mainland. The bulk of the precipitation along the front will be confined to the Alaska Peninsula and the upslope areas of the Kilbuck Mountains, with a chance of some isolated rain showers across the Bristol Bay and Kuskokwim Delta coast through tonight.

SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 and 2).

A highly amplified longwave trough pattern persists across the Bering over the next couple of days. A strong vertically stacked low currently residing in the southwestern Bering strengthens as it tracks eastward towards the Pribilof Islands throughout the day today before pivoting southeast towards the AKPen tonight. This system supports widespread storm force winds, with an area of hurricane force winds, especially on the back side where an arctic airmass is wrapping southward. Strongest winds area expected to develop tonight and persist through early Friday morning and may range from 60 to 75 mph with gusts to 95 mph. Seas are expected to rapidly build between 35-50 ft tonight during peak wind. Anticipate gusty northwesterly winds to continue through Friday afternoon as the low crosses the Alaska Peninsula and into the Pacific. The associated front, now residing along the Central Bering, spanning from the Eastern Aleutians/Southern AKPen to the Pribilofs and areas northwest, is attached to a strong moisture feed, producing significant amounts of rainfall to the aforementioned areas today. This moisture will end up getting wrapped around the low, thus, rain showers will continue through tomorrow night until the low moves into the Pacific.

MARINE (Days 3 through 5/Saturday through Monday).

Gulf of Alaska - A strong low loops over the Central Gulf and exits into the North Pacific for Sunday. The Western Flank of the low lingers across the Eastern Bering. Its front sweeps over the Gulf through Sunday. Forecast confidence is low to moderate through Monday. Easterly high-end gale force with areas of storm force spread across the Northern Gulf for Saturday, turning North over the Western Gulf Sunday, diminishing Monday. Northwesterly High end gales over the Eastern Bering through Sunday. Seas to 22 feet, subsiding.

Bering Sea - A strong North Pacific low Sunday moves to the Central Aleutians by Monday. Forecast confidence moderate through Sunday then decreasing. High end gale force with areas of storm force winds spread across the western Aleutians for Sunday, and increase to storm force winds over the Central Bering and Southern Bering through Monday. Seas to 20 feet on the Bering side of the Eastern Aleutians and Alaska Peninsula subsiding Sunday. Seas building to 20 feet on the Pacific side of the Central Aleutians for Monday.

LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7/Sunday through Wednesday).

The key features in the long term include a broad upper level trough over the Bering with a vertically stacked low over the southeastern Gulf. A weak upper level ridge attempts to nose in over the Alaska Yukon border Sunday. Meanwhile, a deepening low arrives over the western Aleutians and moves eastward, traversing the Chain on Monday. As things progress, the upper level trough deepens and extends farther south into the Gulf of Alaska, allowing the Bering low to move into the Gulf by Tuesday. As a result, widespread precipitation and gusty winds are likely across the Gulf waters and northern Gulf coast on Tuesday. Meanwhile over the Bering, a surge of colder, northerly flow looks to arrive for Tuesday and Wednesday.

AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. PUBLIC . High Wind Warning: 185. MARINE . Hurricane Force Wind Warning: 155, 170-172, 413, 414. Storm Warning: 173-176, 179, 180, 412. Gale Warning: 150, 160, 165, 177, 178, 181, 185, 411. FIRE WEATHER . NONE.



SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION . CB SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA . EZ SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS . KM MARINE/LONG TERM . MK


Weather Reporting Stations
   EDIT       (on/off)   Help   NOTE: Click on distance to see the station location on a map
Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
OVIA2 - 9455500 - Seldovia, AK 20 mi55 min 47°F995.7 hPa
HMRA2 - Kachemak Bay Reserve, AK 24 mi43 min SE 5.1 995 hPa
HMSA2 24 mi31 min E 2.9G5.1 44°F 36°F
FILA2 - Flat Island Light, AK 30 mi43 min E 4.1G5.1 40°F 995.9 hPa34°F
46108 - Central Cook Inlet - 175 32 mi73 min 42°F 47°F3 ft
AMAA2 - East Amatuli Light, AK 36 mi43 min SSE 1G1.9 43°F 995.1 hPa34°F
APXA2 43 mi88 min S 4.1 36°F 995 hPa32°F

Wind History for Nikiski, AK
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
Last
24hr
1 day
ago
2 days
ago

Airport Reports
    EDIT      (on/off)   Help   Click EDIT to display multiple airports. Follow links for more data.
AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Seldovia, Seldovia Airport, AK19 mi20 minN 010.00 miFair39°F36°F89%995.5 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for PASO

Wind History from ASO (wind in knots)
1
pm
2
pm
3
pm
4
pm
5
pm
6
pm
7
pm
8
pm
9
pm
10
pm
11
pm
12
am
1
am
2
am
3
am
4
am
5
am
6
am
7
am
8
am
9
am
10
am
11
am
12
pm
Last 24hr00N300N30N4N3N440N3N30004000000
1 day agoN6N5N4N4N400S300S30000000000000
2 days ago00000000000000000N3000NE4N6N9

Tide / Current Tables for Picnic Harbor, Rocky Bay, Alaska
   EDIT   Weekend mode (on/off)   (on/off)   Help   One Week of Data
Picnic Harbor
Click for Map
Thu -- 02:51 AM AKDT     12.58 feet High Tide
Thu -- 08:36 AM AKDT     1.41 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 08:59 AM AKDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 10:15 AM AKDT     Moonset
Thu -- 02:42 PM AKDT     13.94 feet High Tide
Thu -- 06:40 PM AKDT     Sunset
Thu -- 07:09 PM AKDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 09:05 PM AKDT     -0.80 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

12
am
7.4
1
am
10.2
2
am
12.1
3
am
12.6
4
am
11.7
5
am
9.6
6
am
6.7
7
am
3.7
8
am
1.8
9
am
1.6
10
am
3.2
11
am
6
12
pm
9.1
1
pm
11.8
2
pm
13.5
3
pm
13.9
4
pm
12.7
5
pm
10.2
6
pm
6.9
7
pm
3.3
8
pm
0.4
9
pm
-0.8
10
pm
0
11
pm
2.4


Tide / Current Tables for Tutka Bay,Kachemak Bay, Alaska
   EDIT      (on/off)   Help   One Week of Data
Tutka Bay
Click for Map
Thu -- 03:35 AM AKDT     19.57 feet High Tide
Thu -- 08:59 AM AKDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 09:26 AM AKDT     1.37 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 10:16 AM AKDT     Moonset
Thu -- 03:32 PM AKDT     20.66 feet High Tide
Thu -- 06:39 PM AKDT     Sunset
Thu -- 07:08 PM AKDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 09:52 PM AKDT     -1.48 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

12
am
6.8
1
am
12
2
am
16.5
3
am
19.1
4
am
19.4
5
am
17.3
6
am
13.3
7
am
8.5
8
am
4.1
9
am
1.6
10
am
1.8
11
am
4.4
12
pm
8.7
1
pm
13.5
2
pm
17.8
3
pm
20.3
4
pm
20.4
5
pm
18.1
6
pm
13.8
7
pm
8.5
8
pm
3.3
9
pm
-0.4
10
pm
-1.5
11
pm
0.2


Weather Map
       (on/off)   Help Weather Map
wmap_P
GEOS Local Image of Alaska    EDIT
NOTE: This section has been updated as of 1/26/2021. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: GEOS-West     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Ground Weather Radar Station




Please read website Cookie, Privacy, and Disclamers by clicking HERE.