Monday, October18, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Yakutat, AK

Version 3.4
NOTICE
3/30/2021 -- ANZ330 has been split into ANZ331 and ANZ332. Click EDIT in Marine Forecast and select your new zone.
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 8:48AMSunset 6:42PM Monday October 18, 2021 12:19 PM MST (19:19 UTC) Moonrise 5:09PMMoonset 4:18AM Illumination 94% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 13 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PKZ053 Yakutat Bay- 240 Am Akdt Mon Oct 18 2021
.small craft advisory through tonight...
Today..E wind 20 kt. Gusts to 35 kt in the afternoon. Seas 13 ft. S swell early in the morning.
Tonight..E wind 25 kt. Seas 15 ft. S swell.
Tue..E wind 25 kt. Gusts to 40 kt. Seas 16 ft. S swell. Rain in the afternoon.
Tue night..E wind 20 kt. Seas 16 ft. S swell. Rain.
Wed..NE wind 15 kt. Seas 10 ft.
Thu..NE wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft.
Fri..NE wind 15 kt becoming se. Seas 11 ft.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Yakutat, AK
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location: 59.56, -139.61     debug


Area Discussion for -
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FXAK67 PAJK 181402 AFDAJK

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Juneau AK 602 AM AKDT Mon Oct 18 2021

SHORT TERM. After an absolutely pleasant weekend for the bulk of the citizens of SEAK, we will be returning to the cloudy conditions that are more typical. A ridge of high pressure is currently in place over the region and is blocking the eastward advance of a very deep low pressure system in the Gulf. While some cloud cover will be able to advect overhead, precip will be limited to coastal areas Monday, and even then PoPs are limited to the 20s until Monday night. More significant to Monday will be that the winds will be picking up along coastal areas, mainly Baranof and POW Islands, as a result of a very strong pressure gradient around the low. Expected wind gusts in locations such as Sitka and Hydaburg could be in excess of 40 mph.

Monday night into Tuesday, the ridge holds strong so the low begins to move a bit north. This should allow for chances for precip to extend a bit further into the inner channels but really should not impact areas further east such as Juneau and Ketchikan. Up to the point of the northward turn, rainfall totals will have been rather unimpressive, however this movement will direct the moisture plume directly at Yakutat. While not a great amount by southeast Alaska standards, rainfall totals around an inch appear to be plausible from early Tuesday morning through Tuesday night. The main push of the front eastward really won't be until after the conclusion of this forecast period, however could potentially see the beginnings of it happening late Tuesday night as another low begins moving into the Gulf from the South. The benefit of this ridge stalling the front out is that it will provide time for the parent low to weaken, reducing the speed of the winds before it can push further inland.

Because of the increasing cloud cover, temperatures should be moderated and there should be a slight warming trend. This will be particularly noticeable at night as below freezing temperatures are not anticipated at sea level locations as has been routine the past couple of evenings.

LONG TERM. /Wednesday through Sunday/ . A fresh round of energy from the southern Bering Sea splashing east across the Aleutian Chain into the western Gulf of Alaska should provide sufficient momentum to push rainfall from the stalled eastern gulf front into the Panhandle Wednesday. With a strong front stuck in the eastern gulf for days, the southeasterlies ahead of the system will have long ago driven out any signs of an early season polar air mass as 850 temperatures largely rise above 0 C. Thus, this precipitation will fall as rain across Panhandle sea level communities. An extended breezy period should persist into most of Wednesday, but as the front pushes in, strength falls markedly, and thus by Wednesday night winds ease briefly.

With a complex upper low positioned in the Gulf for the foreseeable future and periodic intrusions of storm inducing colder air from the Bering and moisture-amping typhoon-fed north Pacific storms, the pattern becomes ripe for the possibility of a series of storms riding northward into the southeast gulf. How strong winds will be, how many storms will arrive, where and when exactly will they impact are all subject to debate. While this pattern possesses impactful wind potential, models sadly and notoriously struggle with specifics for various reasons. Ensembles tend to agree of the threat of wind from Baranof to the southern Inner Channels including Prince of Wales, especially the ECMWF Extreme Forecast Index during this time period, mainly Thursday through the weekend. We elected to alert partners/public days ahead with a Special Weather Statement for wind impacting transportation and causing power outages. Currently we barely mention gales for the southeast gulf, but this can be ramped up later as confidence increases. The operational GFS pushes 50 plus knots of winds at various points late this week. We also acknowledged the outside chance that one such system (suggested by the NAM) could develop on Wednesday. But the most likely time will be Thursday into Sunday. However, the period could last into early next week.

While not the main focus, the pattern also tends to favor the highest probability and amounts of rain along the coast and in the south with much lighter amounts and lower chances in the north. With the focus of lower pressure deep in the central and southeastern gulf, winds will largely stay northerly. However, given warmer temperatures in western Canada, we do not expect typically strong outflow in response to the storms from the south.

AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. PUBLIC . Strong Wind from this afternoon through late tonight for AKZ027. Strong Wind from 1 PM AKDT this afternoon through late tonight for AKZ023. MARINE . Gale Warning for PKZ022-041>043-051-052-310. Small Craft Advisory for PKZ021-033-035-036-053.



JDR/JWA

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Weather Reporting Stations
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On 03/09/2021 the NDBC primary processing servers were shut off due to a facilities issue. Station pages on the NDBC website are not updating and there is no ETR at this time. We will update this banner as we learn more.
Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
YATA2 - 9453220- Yakutat, AK 7 mi49 min 50°F1004.3 hPa

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Yakutat, AK4 mi26 minENE 510.00 miMostly Cloudy43°F23°F45%1004.9 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for PAYA

Wind History from AYA (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrE4E6E7E8E8E8E6E8NE8NE6NE6E4NE6NE7NE7NE6NE6NE7E6NE7NE7E64E5
1 day ago0NW5NW6W7NW5W4000000NE30NE30E3NE6E5E4NE4NE3E3E5
2 days agoE9E5E6E7E5E6E4E3NE40N30N300N3N3N3000000

Tide / Current Tables for Redfield Cove, Yakutat Bay, Alaska
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Redfield Cove
Click for Map
Mon -- 12:13 AM AKDT     9.39 feet High Tide
Mon -- 05:18 AM AKDT     Moonset
Mon -- 06:23 AM AKDT     0.64 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 08:05 AM AKDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 12:41 PM AKDT     10.29 feet High Tide
Mon -- 06:00 PM AKDT     Sunset
Mon -- 06:08 PM AKDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 06:54 PM AKDT     0.82 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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Tide / Current Tables for Yakutat, Yakutat Bay, Alaska
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Yakutat
Click for Map
Mon -- 12:12 AM AKDT     9.49 feet High Tide
Mon -- 05:18 AM AKDT     Moonset
Mon -- 06:23 AM AKDT     0.64 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 08:05 AM AKDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 12:39 PM AKDT     10.29 feet High Tide
Mon -- 06:00 PM AKDT     Sunset
Mon -- 06:09 PM AKDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 06:52 PM AKDT     0.84 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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Weather Map
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NOTE: This section has been updated as of 1/26/2021. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may use the EDIT function to update your location.
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