Wednesday, January19, 2022
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Marine Weather and Tides
Kachemak, AK

Version 3.4
NOTICE
3/30/2021 -- ANZ330 has been split into ANZ331 and ANZ332. Click EDIT in Marine Forecast and select your new zone.
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 9:47AMSunset 4:32PM Tuesday January 18, 2022 10:03 PM AKST (07:03 UTC) Moonrise 4:20PMMoonset 10:02AM Illumination 97% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 16 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PKZ141 Kachemak Bay- 404 Pm Akst Tue Jan 18 2022
Tonight..N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Snow.
Wed..N wind 10 kt increasing to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 3 ft. Snow.
Wed night..N wind 10 kt in the evening becoming variable less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
Thu..NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
Thu night..NE wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
Fri..SE wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
Sat..S wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
Sun..E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Kachemak, AK
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location: 59.67, -151.45     debug


Area Discussion for -
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FXAK68 PAFC 190224 AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Anchorage AK 524 PM AKST Tue Jan 18 2022

ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS.

A complex upper-level pattern dominates the region as a broad longwave trough extends from the Northeast Pacific west across the Aleutians and Bering Sea. Downstream, an upper-level ridge is set up from Southeast Alaska to Southcentral. There are multiple shortwaves embedded within the larger trough. Two of these shortwaves are situated off the coast of the southern Mainland, with the first just south of the AKPen and the second south of Nunivak Island. The interaction of these features is driving a southwesterly flow across Southcentral that is not only keeping clouds over the region, but is beginning to push precipitation northward toward the coast. Temperatures remain rather chilly across Southcentral this afternoon, with single digits for the Copper River Basin, teens for the rest of the interior, and 20s along the coast.

For Southwest Alaska, the aforementioned shortwaves are producing a wide expanse of cloud cover along with areas of light snow, especially across coastal Bristol Bay and the Kuskokwim Delta coast. Much like Southcentral, temperatures for Southwest range from the single digits across the interior to the 20s for coastal locations.

Farther west, a vertically stacked low south of Shemya and a front stretched out across the Central Aleutians continues to bring mixed precipitation along with easterly gales to the region. Northeasterly gales also persist over the northern Bering with heavy freezing spray along the ice edge around Saint Matthew Island.

MODEL DISCUSSION.

Model guidance remains in good synoptic agreement through the next couple of days. Discrepancies, however, persist concerning the timing and position of the various shortwaves moving within the overall flow. The first issue is the extent of light snow across Cook Inlet tomorrow, as guidance continues to waiver on the strength of a shortwave advancing from the west and whether the dominant feature will be this or a second wave farther east. The 18z runs are keying in on a stronger wave from the west and thus, the potential for slightly more snow across Cook Inlet and the Anchorage Bowl for Wednesday.

Models are also better agreement with the upper-level waves over the Aleutians and Bering, where unsettled weather will continue through the end of the week. Model guidance diverges more noticeably by Friday as a shortwaves and a surface low move from the North Pacific toward the southern mainland. Even with these differences yielding uncertainty in timing and type of sensible weather, they all agree in a pattern change that will bring wetter and warmer weather to much of the southern mainland by the weekend.

AVIATION.

PANC . VFR conditions are expected over the terminal through around midnight before ceilings begin to lower to around 5000'. Ceilings are expected to continue lowering during the overnight hours to MVFR with light snow expected to develop by early morning Wednesday. Light snow is expected to intensify by mid-morning with IFR ceilings and visibility likely developing. IFR conditions are likely to persist through Wednesday afternoon with MVFR ceilings and visibility possible by Wednesday evening.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3/Today through Thursday night) .

An upper level ridge sitting over the Gulf of Alaska and Southcentral will shift eastward today, opening the flood gates to a host of short-wave troughs moving up from the Pacific. As a result, we'll be moving into a much more active weather pattern as we head through the week and into the weekend. First off, a short-wave trough along the Alaska Peninsula will approach Southcentral today and combine with weak overrunning to produce areas of light snow. Snow will begin on Kodiak Island this morning and spread to Southcentral this afternoon through tonight. The short-wave will weaken as it reaches Southcentral, so snowfall intensity and resultant accumulation will be quite light. Low level southeast flow will develop across the Kenai and Chugach Mountains, but it will be relatively weak, so don't expect much downslope flow. Still, it may be enough to limit snowfall from the western Kenai to Anchorage and the Matanuska Valley. Most likely there will be no more than a dusting for these areas.

Meanwhile, a larger more significant short-wave trough over the North Pacific will cause a weak surface low to deepen and makes its way northward into the central Gulf of Alaska tonight. Model guidance has been struggling with the track of this low because of the plethora of upper level short-waves over the Pacific and overall complexity of the pattern. There is decent agreement on the track now, which takes it northward across the central Gulf Wednesday and then toward Yakutat and the northeast Gulf Wednesday night as additional short-waves moving in from the Bering kick everything eastward. Such a storm track means the bulk of impacts from strong winds and heavy precipitation will remain over the Gulf. Some component of low level offshore flow out ahead of the low tends to keep precipitation light along the Gulf coast and Prince William Sound. There will be some heavier upslope flow (east winds) across the mountains of western Prince William Sound well out ahead of the low tonight into Wednesday. Precipitation will then quickly end from west to east as the low exits eastward Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday night.

As we continue to Thursday, the long-wave trough will amplify over the North Pacific, leading to development of a corresponding high amplitude ridge downstream over the East Pacific and Southeast Alaska. This will lead to a strengthening southerly jet and transport of warm and moist air from the Pacific toward southern Alaska. This pattern tends to lead to chinook winds, warm temperatures, and mixed precipitation types. While there is currently uncertainty in the details, it looks favorable for a warm front to make its way northward to Kodiak Island and the Gulf Thursday and then continue to Southcentral Thursday night. Precipitation will start as snow, but would expect a fairly quick change to rain along the Gulf coast, with heavy snow likely in the mountains. Moderate to heavy snow will also be possible over the Susitna Valley thanks to deep southerly flow, while chinook winds crossing the Chugach and Kenai Mountains should keep precipitation lighter. Stay tuned, as this will likely be the first of multiple impactful storms moving up from the Pacific.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 through 3: Tonight through Friday) .

A couple of shortwaves will keep light steady snow ongoing for the rest of tonight across the Kuskokwim Delta and Bristol Bay regions. Meanwhile, a cold Arctic trough moving across the northern half of the state will play a role in generating some light snow for the Lower Kuskokwim Valley beginning tonight. As the shortwaves exit out of area, snow will taper off by Wednesday afternoon with about 1 to 3 inches expected for the duration of the event.

A shift in the weather pattern will get underway for the rest of the week as southerly flow sets up over the Gulf of Alaska. By Thursday, a North Pacific low will bring a chance of rain/snow mix for the AKPEN and snow across the coastal areas and interior valleys. As the system departs to the east, another North Pacific low will follow on its heels on Thursday night, bringing a greater chance of precipitation through Friday. The main challenge with this system will be the timing of the warm air advection from Bristol Bay northward and how quickly the precipitation type will change from snow to all rain. Stay tuned as we refine the forecast for later this week.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3: Tonight through Friday) .

A compact low will phase with a broad trough of low pressure currently positioned in the western Aleutians. Persistent east- northeast gale force winds, elevated seas above 20 ft, and rain are expected to last through Thursday over the northern Bering. Additionally, snow showers and reduced visibilities are expected for the Pribilof Islands until late Wednesday night as cold, Arctic air surges southward across the Bering. Winds will decrease to small crafts with a small pocket of gales for the Central and Eastern Aleutians through Thursday night. By Friday, the cold, Arctic airmass will move southward and help transition the precipitation type to all snow showers for the western Bering/Aleutians, while rain will be predominant in the Eastern Aleutians.

MARINE (Days 3 through 5 - Friday through Sunday).

Gulf of Alaska . A front extends across the northern Gulf through Sunday. Forecast confidence starts high but decreases with the second front's approach. An easterly high end gale force barrier jet develops along the north Gulf coast, Cook Inlet and Shelikof Strait diminishes Saturday. Widespread southerly gales spread over the Gulf behind the front, diminishing Saturday. Seas build to 20 feet for Saturday, and subside Sunday. A new front enters the Gulf midday Saturday with gusty winds increasing to southerly high-end gales over the western Gulf Sunday. Seas to 17 feet Sunday.

Aleutians / Bering . Arctic high pressure yields to a moderately strong multi-centered low over the eastern Bering for Sunday. Forecast confidence starts high, but decreases with the lows' development. Widespread gales over the central and eastern Bering diminishes over the Aleutians and Alaska Peninsula late Saturday, but continue over the central and eastern Bering through Sunday. Seas to 20 feet subsiding. Gusty winds continue around the lows over the Eastern Aleutians and Alaska Peninsula. Seas to 15 feet.

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Saturday through Tuesday) .

While models continue to show discrepancies with small-scale features in the short-term, it appears that guidance is gradually converging on a large scale pattern change by the end of the week. The takeaway for now is that much of the forecast area can expect to see a warming trend over the weekend. A longwave trough will be making its way eastward into the Eastern Aleutians/Alaska Peninsula on Friday and eventually into the eastern Bering by Saturday. Strong southerly flow ahead of the trough will bring an influx of moisture and warmer temperatures into much of Southwest and all of Southcentral through early Monday as multiple shortwaves lift around the trough into Southcentral. Any initial snow along the coast should transition to all rain Friday into Saturday with interior Southcentral more likely to experience a mixed precipitation type. Precipitation will be ongoing at the start of the period late Friday/early Saturday as a front moves into the Alaska Peninsula and Southcentral coast. This may persist along the coastal areas into Monday from the Kenai Peninsula through Prince William Sound into the Copper River Delta. For the rest of Southcentral, much of this precipitation will become filtered out by the mountains, though expect showery conditions as some moisture makes its way through and further north. The exception to the above normal temperatures will exist behind the longwave trough as seasonably colder air filters southward out of the northern Bering into the Western and Central Aleutians.

AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. PUBLIC . NONE. MARINE . Gale Warning: 119, 178, 185, 411-413. Heavy Freezing Spray Warning: 179, 185, 412, 414.



SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION . TM SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA . CJ SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS . MF MARINE/LONG TERM . KZ/BL


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
HMRA2 - Kachemak Bay Reserve, AK 5 mi93 min ENE 4.1 1007 hPa
HMSA2 5 mi31 min ENE 2.9G5.1 30°F 25°F
46108 - Central Cook Inlet - 175 21 mi63 min 39°F3 ft
OVIA2 - 9455500 - Seldovia, AK 21 mi45 min 39°F1008 hPa
APXA2 23 mi138 min ENE 5.1 20°F 1010 hPa16°F
FILA2 - Flat Island Light, AK 37 mi33 min N 17G18 28°F 1007.8 hPa28°F
AMAA2 - East Amatuli Light, AK 59 mi33 min E 21G25 36°F 1005.7 hPa35°F

Wind History for Nikiski, AK
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
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Last 24 hrE5
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Homer, Homer Airport, AK3 mi70 minN 09.00 miOvercast27°F24°F89%1008.5 hPa
Seldovia, Seldovia Airport, AK21 mi70 minN 0 miLight Snow29°F27°F92%1008.4 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for PAHO

Wind History from AHO (wind in knots)
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Last 24 hrNE3E3NE50N5NE30000N30E30NE3E3NE30NE30N3000
1 day agoN40NE4N3N30N30NE30N3NE3NE4N3NE3N3NE30N5E40NE30NE3
2 days agoW16W13
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W13W900000E40NE5NE3NE30NE300

Tide / Current Tables for Homer, Alaska (2)
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Homer
Click for Map
Wed -- 03:31 AM AKST     17.82 feet High Tide
Wed -- 09:15 AM AKST     3.70 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 09:43 AM AKST     Sunrise
Wed -- 11:14 AM AKST     Moonset
Wed -- 03:02 PM AKST     19.06 feet High Tide
Wed -- 04:50 PM AKST     Sunset
Wed -- 06:48 PM AKST     Moonrise
Wed -- 09:40 PM AKST     -2.00 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Homer, Alaska (2), Tide feet
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6.5
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11.2
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15.2
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17.5
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17.6
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15.7
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12.5
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8.7
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5.4
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3.8
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4.4
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7
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14.8
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17.8
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19.1
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15.1
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10.7
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5.8
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1.4
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-1.4
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-1.9
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0.2


Tide / Current Tables for Halibut Cove, Kachemak Bay, Alaska
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Halibut Cove
Click for Map
Wed -- 03:38 AM AKST     18.32 feet High Tide
Wed -- 09:11 AM AKST     3.80 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 09:42 AM AKST     Sunrise
Wed -- 11:12 AM AKST     Moonset
Wed -- 03:09 PM AKST     19.56 feet High Tide
Wed -- 04:49 PM AKST     Sunset
Wed -- 06:47 PM AKST     Moonrise
Wed -- 09:36 PM AKST     -1.90 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Halibut Cove, Kachemak Bay, Alaska, Tide feet
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